1000 Guineas 2011

OK this is the third attempt to respond having managed to make the previous two disappear completely. I may be brief but to the point.

Thanks for the response Zed.

I thought the most impressive European fillies over the last couple of years were the likes of Goldikova, Ouija Board, Midday and Zarkava. Dar Re Mi is also worth a mention. O’Brien handled none of them. As for fillies improving in ratings significantly early in their careers I don’t pay much attention to 1st/2nd start ratings in this division. Way too much guesstimation involved in fields full of first starters and quickly diminishing 2yo squibs.

I’d say that he’s arguably the greatest trainer of fillies ever, easily up there with Henry Cecil. He’s a genius

I’d say you’re absolutely, positively, wrong. I wouldn’t even bother arguing the point too vehemently. I wouldn’t put O’Brien in the top five handlers of fillies. I’d only give him a passing grade with females given the quality of stock at his disposal. Stoute and Cecil are vastly superior. Royer Dupre leaves O’Brien for dead in the female division.

She’ll be several pounds better on a sound surface.

I’d say there’s very little to support such a claim in relation to Sing Softly. One look at the sire stats for Hennessy on RP website actually indicates better figures for the progeny of Hennessy on good to soft or worse. Only 2 winners from 76 tries on good and 11 winners from 115 on good to firm. That’s a worse than 10% s/r for Hennessy progeny on good or better ground. This compares to 22% on good to soft, 10% soft and 14% on heavy ground.

Finally I cannot see I Love Me making any greater improvement than the filly who already has her measure – Cape Dollar. We clearly disagree when it comes to this topic and that’s fine by me. All the best with your ante post gambles.

Not sure what people have seen in Sing Softly personally, yes she’s been progressive but hasn’t beat much but more worrying is her times have been very slow, I’d of still fancied Defining Year to beat her in a true run race.

If you have a 1000 Guineas horse who has ubundance in class and potentially upwards to 115 rated then you’d expect her to run a little more emphatically against handicappers partically refering to her run over 6f which again was a poor time yet come under pressure early to get home, I think her natural ability and class is allowing her to win such races rather than displaying classic potential. For me, you’d have to show a little more on the clock, especially over the 6-7f if you’re going to win a 1000 Guineas.

You want to take a filly from Ireland that could be a potential Guineas winner, particually the Irish Guineas then I’d look at History Note for John Oxx, a far more potential winner than Sing Softly.

I think I Love Me is a talented filly, Tom Segal was particually spot on when mentioning her run in the Tatersalls Millions overcoming stall 18, the next horse down with a wide draw was Mohedian Lady in draw 14 who won a maiden comfortably whilst all the low drawn horses have failed to hold the form. What I dont agree with was his assumptions she didn’t handle the ground in the Rockfel, the ground in the Tatersalls Millions was -1.09 (Good to soft) whilst the Rockfel was -0.99 (Good to soft) extremly the same. I still think they lack the class to be a Group 1 winning Classic filly, those in the Rockfel and Tatersalls Million based on their 2yo showings, I am willing to take back this statement on any prep runs in the near future.

Deire Na Sli a massive let down for Sing Softley in the 7.00 at Dundalk tonight, I’m telling ya you’re going over the top on this filly.

Anyone know if Cape Dollar is heading for the Fred Darling this week-end? Entered and i am contemplating backing her for the 1000s Guineas before this race.

Any assistance/advice/comments would be greatly appreciated.

Cheers

Zarks: Cheers, think i will have a go.

Pricewise has gone for Ladies are Forever today in the Nell Gwynne