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Time for a thread on this since Seagull gives his tip in the morning, which looks like it might be Laughing Lashes since she’s blue everywhere.
Zoowraa’s a huge price on the machine and looks a likely NR while Havant’s been subject to a colossal gamble this week and has halved in price from 11s to 11/2.
This looks like shaping up to be a hot 1000 Guineas, the hottest we’ve had in some time. The 3 end of season 2yo fillies Group 1 winners all feature in the entries while the Rockfel, Oh So Sharp and Albany winners are all entered too. Throw in a couple of potential French runners and it really is shaping up to be a corker of a race.
Unfortunately the trends can only help so much and leaves a decent sized shortlist. Only Ghanaati broke the following 2 trends from the last 16 winners; rated RPR98+ as a 2yo and ran in a Group race. Doesn’t help much at all in this instance.
They’re by far the strongest trends for the race with a fair amount of runners behind them, respectively 1-6-60 and 1-4-61. You may point to last year’s race as potentially having been a hiccup but Pasquier said without the interference by Jacqueline Quest Special Duty would’ve won easily & I’m inclined to agree given that Gile Na Greine & Sent From Heaven had started to come back at the front 2.
Horses that took 3+ attempts to break their maiden have actually made a fair turnout, they’re 1-6-43 with Speciosa being the sole winner there.
There are plenty of ‘little’ trends that don’t have that many runners behind them but have nevertheless shown a true pattern. For example, from 20 runners, May foals have produced just 1 placed effort, being Petrushka who finished 3rd. Havant is a May 3rd foal. The youngest winner of the past 16 was Speciosa (April 28th), while the next 3 were April 26th, 12th & 4th.
Forgive me for making excuses, but Speciosa’s Guineas was rather a dismal affair and Wince didn’t win the greatest Guineas ever. This year’s renewal looks hot and I’d want a properly developed horse on my side.
Once-raced 2yos again haven’t covered themselves in glory; 20 runners, just 2 placed, again 1 being Petrushka.
Moyglare & Fillies’ Mile runners who finished outside the top 3 have produced just 2 placed efforts from 28 attempts and 8+ raced 2yos have a similar record with 0-1-18.
There are then some 3-year-old trends that can also be applied (and will need to be if you want to whittle your list down a little more).
There are 5 key trials for the race and anything that didn’t run solely in them are 0-6-33. The European Free Handicap, 1000 Guineas Trial (run last Sunday), Nell Gwyn, Fred Darling and Prix Imprudence.
And finally fillies that hadn’t finished in the top 4 on their previous start (going back to their juvenile days if no 3-year-old run) are 1-5-56. Ameerat the sole winner.
White Moonstone flies through all the trends as does Misty For Me, although if you have a personal bias against all Galileo milers like myself, she can be eliminated. Aidan O’Brien has a dreadful record in the 1000 Guineas to boot. He’s 1-2-16. A win from Virginia Waters & placed efforts from Shahtoush & Toroca. Heart Shaped came close to making it 3 placed runners 2 years ago.
Few interesting runners are Cape Dollar, Brevity, Pontenuovo and Soraaya (Rainbow Springs too but 210s on the machine), although I Love Me stands out the most. But I can’t stress enough that this isn’t a race to look at until after the Fred Darling’s been run. If White Moonstone’s the one, I don’t think I could back her given Bin Suroor’s abysmal recent record in the early season. Best finish in the past 6 runnings was a 4th from Silca’s Sister.
I’d be inclinced to ignore the 3+ attempts to win a race trend with Laughing Lashes since she failed by just a short head on her debut before being stepped up to Group 3 class on her 2nd start & actually won a Group on her 3rd. I can’t see anything to fault her. Her stamina index figures for her sire & damsire would be an issue for a colt but they seem to mean diddly squat to fillies. Attraction was 16.1, Finsceal Beo was 16.4 and Special Duty destroyed them even further last year with a lowly 15.4.
I rather hope all the reasoning behind the trends is self-explanitory, although if there are any questions, feel free to ask!
I’ve also just read that Misty For Me is a giant of a horse, looks more like a NH runner which mean she’ll take an awful lot of work to get her fit.
I’ve also just read on twitter that I Love Me was slashed on the exchanges earlier, something I must admit I missed, although I did find it strange that she was considerably shorter on the machine than with some bookies. I’d gone in but I’ve gone in again at 40s.
Seems a pretty leftfield selection. You obviously think its a reasonable choice Zarkava as you have backed it too – why do you give this a chance?
Seems a pretty leftfield selection. You obviously think its a reasonable choice Zarkava as you have backed it too – why do you give this a chance?
Well she’s clearly battle hardened and possesses a huge amount of talent. Horses just don’t come out and win £100k+ Sales races first time out in 16-runner fields. The only other recent occassion I can think of something similar almost happening was Kingsgate Native finishing 2nd in the Windsor Castle and look what happened there.
Her 2nd run was a messy affair that ended up in a blanket finish and it looked like she was inconvenienced by the draw. Then she was last off the bridle in the Rockfel and looked like she was simply outstayed on soft ground. Everything in her breeding suggests she’ll be much better on quicker ground and she clearly goes extremely well fresh.
Looks wide open but a race worth playing in as the front two in the market look falsely priced. Havant is priced up on her trainer’s identity and not form and White Moonstone is a Godolphin filly.
Having backed Wootton Bassett for the 2000 it’d be foolish not to take a bit of the 20/1 available about Moonlight Cloud. The fact that Freddie Head is targeting Newmarket rather than the Pouliches suggests she will act on fast ground and it’s just a question of hoping she runs well in her trial.
Seems a pretty leftfield selection. You obviously think its a reasonable choice Zarkava as you have backed it too – why do you give this a chance?
Well she’s clearly battle hardened and possesses a huge amount of talent. Horses just don’t come out and win £100k+ Sales races first time out in 16-runner fields. The only other recent occassion I can think of something similar almost happening was Kingsgate Native finishing 2nd in the Windsor Castle and look what happened there.
Her 2nd run was a messy affair that ended up in a blanket finish and it looked like she was inconvenienced by the draw. Then she was last off the bridle in the Rockfel and looked like she was simply outstayed on soft ground. Everything in her breeding suggests she’ll be much better on quicker ground and she clearly goes extremely well fresh.
Just been through her races again and think she looks pure class. She had them all off the bridle 2 out in the Sales race on her debut and had plenty left in the tank at the end. The 2nd Sales race was a bit of a joke, just drawn completely on the wrong side. It was a messy contest and you’d get a different winner if you ran it 10 times. Again, last off the bridle in the Rockfel and simply outstayed. She’s clearly very well regarded and always has been as she was declared a non-runner in a maiden the day before she won her Sales race and looks a very pacey front-runner who stays really well.
On a line through Cochabamba, there’s 3 lengths covering White Moonstone, Misty For Me, Laughing Lashes, Together, Theyskens Theory, Cape Dollar, Cochabamba and I Love Me and I think for all the world that I Love Me could beat them all bar possibly White Moonstone in a quick ground Guineas if she sits in just behind Theyskens’ Theory. The others will just be suited to further or softer ground.
Although she wouldn’t be a trends pick I have not given up on Date With Destiny. She was very taking over 7f on her Newbury debut on fast ground.
I was at Goodwood for her next start and her tyres were spinning throughout the Prestige, she just couldn’t get moving on the ground. There were echoes of that again in the Rockfell when she was about 3 lengths behind I Love Me though her distaste for the soft conditions were less marked than in Sussex.
Last year she was a media darling due to her sires back story and her rarity, this term she looks like going under the radar (as her form deserves).
50/1 generally and 80s on the machine, I have added her to my bet on White Moonstone after Doncaster.I hadn’t even read Segal’s piece on I Love Me but it makes me fancy her even more. The time of the Rockwell was just a second slower than the Dewhurst + she was really heavily backed that day. And in the 2nd Sales race she finished 3 1/2 lengths ahead of the next horse who also raced in the centre.
On another note, it hadn’t really registered that only 9 of the last 10 winners hadn’t won over a mile at 2. When I get home I’ll have a look at that + see how accurate it is.
Yeah that’s really not a trend I want on my side. With any sort of luck Six Perfections would’ve won after winning the Marcel Boussac as a 2-year-old, but just plenty of placed horses who finished 1st or 2nd over a mile as a juvenile; Spacious, Sundrop, Ameerat finished 2nd in the May Hill but won the Guineas, and actually even Kazzia won over a mile as a 2-year-old so the trend should be 8/10 hadn’t won over a mile as a 2-year-old, that’s poor from Craig Thake. Disregard that trend completely.
Sing Softly won well a couple of weeks ago and I just wondered with her being by Hennessey (sire of Special Duty) and winning on soft whether she might be Aidan O’Brien’s Guineas filly, and today she beat a very decent field indeed and probably showed improvement in the region of 2 stone. I’ve got a fair bit on at 40s and 50s despite her breaking practically every trend, but Aidan O’Brien doesn’t know the meaning of ‘trend’. This could be an extremely smart filly in the making.
Zarks: Have you heard anything about a horse called Handassa? Won a small race on debut and was then put away but i liked the battling qualities she showed.
Any advice/news would be appreciated.
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Zarkava. In your initial post you clearly point out that O’Brien has a poor 1000 Guineas record and make no mention whatsoever of Sing Softly. It seems you couldn’t wait to post that you are on her after the run on Sunday. Do your trends mean nothing to you in the heat of the moment? Personally I’d also be concerned about the type of ground this filly has been winning on.
As for I Love Me winning the Guineas I simply cannot see it happening myself. If she was clearly so highly rated by the yard then why did she go off at 50/1 and ( more importantly ) have Kirsy M in the saddle first time out? I’d say this one performs a lot better on raceday than what she shows at home. I’d also say that Cape Dollar has her measure and will improve just as much on better ground. For mine I Love Me currently represents the worst ante post value in the market.
My greatest concern with Handassa would be her appearing at Newmarket at all. I’d say she’s a much better chance to appear at the Curragh instead. Handassa already has an engagement for a tune up race over seven furlongs the day after the English Guineas. As far as her form goes she was visually very impressive first time out but didn’t look to beat much. That said the second filly from her debut finished 2.75 lengths behind Sing Softly on the weekend. Handassa looked every bit a miler on debut. I have heard nought about her progress in 2011.
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I would think they’d try to find the easiest black type races possible for Date With Destiny this year. She’s worth a fortune with some bold type. Not a Guineas contender unless improving significantly.
Chiswickian, I backed Sing Softly immediately after she ran on Sunday because her progress in her last 2 runs in my eyes has been astounding and RPRs agree. From a debut RPR of 59 last year, she won her maiden the other day cosily and picked up a 73 rating, whereas she’s now rated 99. That’s over 4 stone in 2 runs and almost 2 stone progression in 2 weeks. On heavy ground. She’s American bred, by Hennessy, a 7f Grade 1 winner on firm. He’s by Storm Cat, a sire whose progeny have all adored quick ground. She’ll be several pounds better on a sound surface.
Yes, it’s true Aidan’s struggled with his 1000 Guineas types, but who’s trained the most progressive fillies of the past 5 years? Peeping Fawn, Remember When, Moonstone. The former showed 19lbs of progression on RPRs from her debut to her 4th start. Remember When improved 24lbs from her sole 2yo run to finishing 3rd to Chinese White. Moonstone improved 16lbs from her debut to finishing 4th in the Musidora, and then another 15lbs to finishing 2nd in the Oaks. None of them had shown this much progression so early in the year. Aidan’s got his horses, especially his fillies, much more forward than in recent years and it looks like it’s going to pay off. Perhaps that’s why his 1000 Guineas record is so poor.
Just look at his Classic record with fillies. 1 French Pouliches win, 1 UK 1000 Guineas win. 2 weeks later you get the Irish 1000 Guineas and he’s had 4 winners in that. A week or 2 later, the Oaks, 3 winners. 5 weeks later, Irish Oaks, 3 winners.
His 1000 Guineas runners that have had a run that year are 1-2-7. Those without a run are 0-0-9. The unplaced runners that had had a run were 33s, 14s, 50s, 20s, 12s, 14s and 11s. The winner was 12s and the 2 placed runners were 10s and 5s. This suggests Aidan knows who are the no-hopers and who the real progressive sorts are.
And what’s even more interesting is their progression when they run in a Classic. Peeping Fawn improved a further 15lbs from her 4th run to running in the Irish 1000. Moonstone like I said improved 15lbs when she ran in the Oaks. Remember When improved 8lbs. He gets considerable improvement out of them with every single run. If Sing Softly can improve 12lbs on her next run, coupled with running on a quick surface for the first time, I’d say it’s not out of the realms of possibility that she could improve 20lbs.
And that’s only using recent examples. Shahtoush, racecourse debut, RPR70. Next run, Group 1, bang, RPR104. 3yo seasonal debut, RPR93, next run, Group 1, boom, RPR114 beaten only by Cape Verdi. 18lbs progression by Alexandrova between runs 2 and 3, 13lbs improvement between the Musidora and Oaks. 18lbs progression by Perfect Truth between 3yo seasonal debut and 2 runs later. Imagine showed 13lbs improvement between her 2nd start as a 3yo and next run 20 days later.
I’ve stated on numerous occasions that you need to take the trends with a pinch of salt when you look at Aidan O’Brien’s runners because the guy treats them with utter contempt, and I’d say that he’s arguably the greatest trainer of fillies ever, easily up there with Henry Cecil. He’s a genius.
As for I Love Me winning the Guineas I simply cannot see it happening myself. If she was clearly so highly rated by the yard then why did she go off at 50/1 and ( more importantly ) have Kirsy M in the saddle first time out? I’d say this one performs a lot better on raceday than what she shows at home. I’d also say that Cape Dollar has her measure and will improve just as much on better ground. For mine I Love Me currently represents the worst ante post value in the market.
I Love Me was sent off at 50/1 because she was a debutante against 15 rivals in a valuable Sales race, the vast majority of whom, if not all, had racecourse experience. She was withdrawn from her maiden the day before so clearly she was fancied. The 2nd and 4th that day were also very well backed. Rockfel ‘also-rans’ have a great record in the Guineas too, with Ameerat (6th in the Rockfel) and Wince (7th) winning, alongside Finsceal Beo and Speciosa winning both. This horse needs quick ground and she just didn’t get it on her last 2 starts. Just watch her debut and tell me it’s not impressive to burn them all off like she did.
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