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This is a method of selection that I have developed into a system. It utilises most elements of VDW, albeit in an unorthodox way. In other words…his meat, my recipe.
It’s a simple matter to reduce the field to the possibles and the probables. What I do is reduce it to two. From experience I’ve found that the top rated is not the most profitable. The better priced of the top two is. I’ll be aiming at h/caps of Class 3 and above. Win singles 1 point LS for this thread. I personally use a percentage ratchet staking plan.
SR is not particularly high, but ROI is most rewarding. Selections as and when……………….I am sure
emain
that the whole of Ward 7 will be watching (am still not sure where Ward 7 is but . . . )
Billy's Outback Shack
Thanks trabbas. Good Luck with yours too.
My top 2 for the Rip 3.40 (in no particular order) with the likely best priced in bold. I like to take bfsp.
Osteopathic Remedy /Billy Dane
Hello Emian…
I’m sorry to see that this thread is not progressing as you have a promising method here..
IMHO your race selection criteria is excellent and is similar to my own although I might include Class 4 races at Class 1 courses to enable a bit more action and turnover.
You state that the S/R of the higher priced selection is not particularly high and hopefully this is because your lower priced selections are winning!
I also select 2 horses per race using a very simple method and have over the years been unable to find any profitable way of narrowing them down to one as the higher priced selection seems just as likely to prevail as the lower priced one so I’ve accepted the situation and backed both to win. If you bet with a ‘Best Odds Guaranteed’ bookmaker you normally find that if one selection shortens the other one drifts and this regularly augments profits. An interesting point is that they rarely finish 1st and 2nd so forecasts are seldom achieved. However cross doubles and trebles are profitable and they are a small-stake bonus to my single win bets.
Anyway, just my twopenny worth and I’m sure we’ll hear from Billion when he returns from Dongleland and possibly MrE.This is a method of selection that I have developed into a system. It utilises most elements of VDW, albeit in an unorthodox way. In other words…his meat, my recipe.
It’s a simple matter to reduce the field to the possibles and the probables. What I do is reduce it to two. From experience I’ve found that the top rated is not the most profitable. The better priced of the top two is. I’ll be aiming at h/caps of Class 3 and above. Win singles 1 point LS for this thread. I personally use a percentage ratchet staking plan.
SR is not particularly high, but ROI is most rewarding. Selections as and when……………….Powered by Linux
Hello there elcartero. I had to go down South for a few days. Just got back early this morning. My daughters laptop is knackered so was unable to post. Also, since the 26th I’ve cut it down to just class 2 h/caps and the occasional group 1 stakes. There have been 5 races since and results have pleased me.
There is nothing suitable until June 4th now. I’ve noted 3 h/caps and a group 1.
I used to back the best 2 per race too. The shortest priced one wins it’s share of course, but does not outshine the bigger priced ones. At present, I’m happy with the way I’m doing things. Should the need for change become apparent then I’ll do whatever I deem to be appropriate.In the previous post class 1 h/caps should be included too.
For illustratative purposes here are two of the last five races I did. One I got right and one I got gallingly wrong.May 29th Str 7.20 poss/probs. After initial rating, the ones in italics were eliminated and the remainder were subjected to further rating. The two in bold came out best.
North Island
KingTroy
Postmaster
Overclear
Nelson’s Spice
StorymakerHerons Well
Tanksforthat
For most of the morning HW had the slightly better BOG. It was close though so I held off. Early evening I saw them flip-flopping on b/f. About 5-10 mins before the off I decided KT would end up with the best bfsp. So it proved. Success.May 31st Good 4.20 poss/probs. After initial rating, the ones in italics were eliminated and the remainder were subjected to further rating. The two in bold came out best.
Thebes
Huzzah
Mujood
Get Carter
Light From Mars
Cyflymder
NasriTropical Paradise
Jeninski
Signor Peltro
The morning BOG had them at 28/1 & 33/1 respectively. I considered that too close so again held off.
During the day it became clear that Jen was going to have the bigger bfsp. So it proved. Failure.Hi emian….. I’ve been missing again for a bit, it’s a nasty habit that I picked up over the years…. since retirement I have this inkling to keep popping off to different parts of the country to get away from all the humdrum….. all this studying get right up my nose and I have to walk away from it before it drives me daft….. some say that I’ve left it too late and I’m daft enough already….. I had a quick scan through this thread and it looks very promising, as did the 8 and 9 thread by Trabbas…. I’ll grab a few hours over the weekend and have a good read….. nice to see the postings coming back……
Thanks for looking in MrE. Yes, I too like to get out and about. I’m long past the stage where I need a daily fix. Much more selective now.
I’ve discarded one of the noted three h/caps. (not my cuppa) No breakdown today as I have to go out. Should be back in time to watch the racing though.Eps 2.10
Initially rated 7. Dumped 3. Top 2 are…
Tartan Gigha
Vitznau (looks like I may be on this one although very close on BOG..a waiting game))Eps 2.45
GP1. Rated 5. Dumped Youzmain. Top 2 are..
Fame And Glory
Sariska
Looks as if these two have it sown up. Very close on ratings so I’m going with what I consider to be the safe option. Place only on Sariska.Eps 3.25
Initially rated 7. Dumped 3. Top 2 are..
Kings Destiny
Antinori (my policy dictates that I’ll be on this one)Nice…. a 6/1 Winner followed by another one at 5/6….. and still one to go, great batting Emian…..
MrE
There are five h/caps that I’m playing in today, plus The Derby. Two of the h/caps are too close to call at present. They’ll be in a later post.
Eps 3.15
Two of six dumped. Top two are…
Hawkeyethenoo
Fathom Five (Best BOG so I’ll be on @ bfsp)The Derby
None dumped from five. Top two are…
Bullet Train
Rewilding (Slighter better consolidated rating. Place only)Eps 4.45
Three of nine dumped. Top two are…
Coin Of The Realm
Seeking The Buck (The likely better price. On @ bfsp)Eps 5.20
Five of eleven dumped. Top two are…
Baldemar
Abraham Lincoln (Best BOG so I’ll be on @ bfsp)Now for the other two h/caps. All @ bfsp.
Muss 3.40
Dumped two of six. Top two are…
Masamah (will prob start bigger than IL)
Ingleby LadyHex 3.50
Dumped five of nine. Top two are…
Acambo (will prob start bigger than M)
Marodima.The French Derby
Cape Blanco
Lope De Vega
Planteur
If it’s as good as I think it is, the iffy draw will not hinder it too much. A great place bet @ 4.4.Excellent result for your selection method, Emian…..12/1 winner……Well done!
The French Derby
Cape Blanco
Lope De Vega
Planteur
If it’s as good as I think it is, the iffy draw will not hinder it too much. A great place bet @ 4.4.Powered by Linux
(ward 7)
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