I am not sure last year’s Champion Chase form is all that strong – yes Jonbon was 2nd but his mistake cost him any chance he had of winning and in 3rd you had Captain Guiness who’s last win was when he was handed the 2024 Champion Chase after El Fabiolo and Edwardstone both failed to complete.
Cheltenham won’t let the ground get quicker than good to soft (Majborough has won on good ground as a novice) but given the wet weather we have had a lot of so far, you could argue we are much more likely to get a soft ground (or worse) Festival this year.