I think Grey Dawning leaves any chance (slim though it is) of a Gold Cup behind if he runs here – they said they would yank him if the ground turns heavy but even on very soft ground it will be just as attritional especially with Flooring Porter likely to gets his way out front.
GD’s Betfair form isn’t looking the strongest now either with Royal Pagille (2nd), Stellar Story (3rd) and Handstand (4th) all being well beaten next time out.
To me L’Homme Presse won’t get a better chance of winning this seaon, it was a bit of a strange pipe opener on his seasonal debut in that at times he looked like he was going to be well beaten but then stayed on under his top weight of 12st (giving 24lbs to the winner and third) after the last to get 2nd.
Yes the trainer’s form is worrying but then he ran well on that debut when the stable was equally out of form – he won this race last year on probably similar soft ground that he faces today (time was over 21s slow) and Flooring Porter if he uses his usual tactics should give him a good lead.
Spillane’s Tower is the dark one – just 3 mere runs ago he was finishing 2nd (albeit a long way behind) GDC in the Punchestown Gold Cup but the fact that they have stuck to hurdles so far this season (albeit his 3rd to El Fabiolo was more encouraging) isn’t a glowing recomendation especially given that Cheltenham is the course picked for his return to chasing. Best watched here.