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It’s a mares listed hurdle over 2m. 10/3 is available with one or two firms but generally 3/1 at the time of writing.
The best horse in the race and most likely winner (great value too) is the Dan Skelton trained Stephanie Francis and here is why….
This is her 4th run in a couple of months, I wouldn’t be worried about her being tired, she should be close to fully fit. She has been racing over the larger obstacles in all of her runs this season and has acquitted herself well enough, being rated 138 while winning her first 2 races and coming 2nd by a head in the 3rd.
But it’s her hurdles form that is the real story teller, she showed the first signs that she’s a good horse in March 2015 when winning a 2m handicap hurdle while rated 120, she won by an incredibly easy 4 1/2 lengths while hard held – going to the lead “effortlessly”. A month later, now rated 128, she won an 11k 2m mares novice’s hurdle at Cheltenham by another very easy 2 1/2 lengths, racing post reads “smooth headway after 2 out, led last, nudged clear, readily”. The horse she beat into 2nd that day, Bantam, was and still is rated 130 – a solid yardstick by my estimation. The horse in 3rd that day, Midnight Jazz, is tomorrows 5th favourite at odds of 5/1, this horse is rated just above 130 now (was rated 122 at the time of defeat to Stephanie Francis) after winning her first start back from the summer this year comfortably.
She then ran in the Galway hurdle off a rating of 138, she could only manage a 16 length 8th but was badly hampered at the last, she wouldn’t have won that race but she would certainly have finished closer and still I’d say this was a respectable performance. Her next race came against the mighty The New One at Kempton in October 2015, The New One was rated 162 at the time and gave Francis 7lbs and though the Twiston-Davis horse proved superior, he only won by 2 lengths – admittedly without too much stress. Still, getting to within 2lengths of The New One is very strong form and nothing to be sniffed at, even if it is in October and TNO wasn’t fully wound up.
After this, Skelton sent her chasing where she fell in her 2 starts. Next stop was the Cheltenham festival of 2016 and the Mares Hurdle over 2m4f, she was finished 10 lengths behind winner Vroom Vroom Mag, I think the trip stretched her stamina that day and she has since been chasing, tomorrows race is her first back over hurdles.
The favourite for tomorrows race – Miss Crick (2/1) is the market leader because of her form this summer/autumn with form figures of 11211. The first of those wins was a very suspect 2m maiden where she won by 8 lengths. Next was a 2m novice hurdle in which although she again won easily by 2 lengths, the horse in 2nd is rated 115 over hurdles so that’s nothing to shout home about. She then came a solid enough length and a half 2nd to Hassle before winning an 2m2f handicap hurdle by a nose off a rating of 119. Her most recent win was by an impressive 8 lengths in a handicap hurdle while rated 126 – but the favourite that day unseated its rider and the horse that came 2nd (and hasn’t raced since) could only manage a 15 length 4th in a novice hurdle the time before.
The other two dangers, Pass The Time (9/2) and Card Game (9/2) have both showed solid enough form, being rated 135 and the former actually beat our selection by a neck, but that was back in December 2014 before dear Stephanie showed her improved form. I feel these two horses have shown their cards and will prove ripe for the taking by something with a bit of class, I’m a firm believer that Stephanie Francis has just that and that we’re yet to see the best of her over hurdles, I think tomorrow she’ll show how good she is.
Ben that’s such a good round up of the race..who needs Timeform (I never use it anyway)
Even though I’m a flat racing fan and will be at Newmarket tomorrow I’m going to have a little bet on your mare Stephanie Francis..good luck….
Why don’t you keep all your thoughts together in one Thread on here so we can quickly find your fancied bets snd follow your progress through the season. Brilliant overview…Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Thank you Jac, I will get a thread going in the next week or so, let’s hope this mare does a favour early on in the season, just not sure what her plan of action will be for after the race as there aren’t a ton of options for 2m mare hurdlers! Good luck
Thankyou guys, always nice to start the season off with a confidence booster, big fan of Dan Skelton.
Echo Triptych’s words Ben, a fine result and great write ups like that deserve a thread to highlight your prowess.
Value Is EverythingGreat stuff Ben !!!!
Get your own thread going. It is always good to read someone else’s opinions and take them on board.
Look forward to hearing more from you.
I followed Stephanie Francis most of last season but, darn it, didn’t back her today. Left at the crack of dawn for Wetherby so annoyingly didn’t have time to read this thread.
Thanks for all the kind words, she was travelling a dream coming up to the last (under a great, confident and patient ride) from Bidget Andrews, but absolutely smashed the hurdle. Would have won by at least 3 lengths in my mind if she hadn’t tried to run through it. Will get a thread started during the week or next weekend depending on what the mid-week racing is saying.
Well done Ben…just back from Newmarket and did back a few winners but Stephanie Francis is my first National Hunt bet of the season.
Thank you for a great write up on her your analysis was spot on and look forward to your Thread.
Don’t feel under pressure just write from the heart when you really feel it.
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...
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