Top Picks at Churchill Downs: Which Horses Lead the Pack?
The Kentucky Derby isn’t a stage where newcomers simply show up and hope for the best. It is a race for the elite, where only those who have fought through the rigorous Road to the Derby point system earn their rightful place.
Each year, young Thoroughbreds compete in a series of qualifying races worldwide, accumulating points based on their performances. These points determine which horses will make it to Churchill Downs, and the stakes could not be higher.
Five horses stand out as the strongest contenders this year, leading the leaderboard in both points and earnings.
Sandman
Some horses win with raw speed, others with pure grit. Sandman wins with both.
His defining moment came in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby, where he fell 13 1/2 lengths behind the leaders in the early stages. But as the race progressed, Sandman began his assault. He cut through the field like a freight train, picking off horses one by one before storming past his exhausted rivals to win by 2 1/2 lengths.
Sandman’s ability to accelerate when it matters most makes him so dangerous. Unlike horses that burn out from running too fast too early, Sandman saves his energy for the final stretch, unleashing a devastating late charge that leaves opponents gasping for air.
His trainer, Mark Casse, has compared him to some of his best horses, praising his ability to find another gear in the final strides. If the Derby has a fast early pace, expect Sandman to come flying down the stretch, hunting down the leaders with his signature closing kick.
If the Derby sets a blistering early pace, keep your eyes on Sandman, he’ll be flying down the stretch, hunting down the leaders with that signature closing kick. Check out your favorite sportsbook today for more expert analysis and the latest picks for Churchill Downs.
Tiztastic
If Sandman is a late-charging monster, Tiztastic is the perfect tactician. In the Louisiana Derby, he positioned himself beautifully in mid-pack, staying within striking distance while conserving energy. Then, with perfect timing, he surged forward in the stretch, overtaking the leaders with a strong, sustained drive to win by 2 1/4 lengths.
Tiztastic’s biggest strength is adaptability. He has shown he can sit close to the pace or hang back and pounce late, making him an unpredictable threat in any race. His pedigree is built for classic distances, his sire, Tiz the Law, won the Belmont Stakes, proving that stamina runs in the family.
With Steve Asmussen, one of the most excellent trainers in the sport, guiding his preparation, Tiztastic is peaking at the perfect time. He might not have Sandman’s electrifying closing speed, but his race sense and ability to make the right move at the right moment make him a serious Derby contender.
Sovereignty
Sovereignty has already made a splash on the racing scene, snagging two major stakes wins, including a nail-biter at the Fountain of Youth Stakes. He hung back near the leaders, bided his time, and then unleashed a fierce late charge to win by a neck—talk about dramatic flair!
But what really sets Sovereignty apart is that he’s a smart contender. He doesn’t panic, doesn’t burn himself out, and always seems to know exactly where he needs to be. That’s no accident—trainer Bill Mott’s patient, strategic style has been a perfect fit, focusing on steady progress instead of pushing for flashy wins.
Sure, he hasn’t blown the field away with any jaw-dropping, runaway victories yet. But grinding out wins against tough competition takes serious guts, something this horse has in spades. He’s not flashy, but he’s reliable, tough, and dangerous when it counts. That makes him a legitimate Derby threat and a horse to keep an eye on. After all, smart beats fast when the stakes are high!
Tappan Street
Some horses grab headlines with flashy, come-from-behind wins. Others dominate races from start to finish, overpowering the field with sheer speed. Tappan Street isn’t that kind of horse.
Tappan Street didn’t waste energy chasing the leaders early. He settled into a comfortable stalking position, letting the front-runners burn themselves out. Luis Saez, a jockey known for his aggressive but tactical riding, kept him within striking distance, waiting for the right moment.
As they rounded the final turn, the leaders started to fade. That’s when Saez asked Tappan Street for more. And just like he’s done in every race, the colt responded. He surged forward, grabbed the lead at the top of the stretch, and never let go.
He held off challengers in the final furlong, crossing the wire 1 1/4 lengths clear. It wasn’t a blowout victory but a professional, confident effort—the kind of race that translates well to the Kentucky Derby.
Final Gambit
Every Kentucky Derby has its standout favorites, horses who dominate the prep season, capturing the headlines and the public’s imagination. But every Derby also has a surprise contender, a horse who flies under the radar before delivering an unforgettable performance when it matters most. This year, that horse might just be Final Gambit.
Final Gambit wasn’t the name on everyone’s lips at the start of the season. He had shown flashes of ability but hadn’t quite delivered the kind of performance that stamps a horse as a true Derby contender. That all changed at Turfway Park, where he ran the best race of his career in the Jeff Ruby Steaks, a major Derby prep race that awards 100 qualifying points to the winner.
Final Gambit may not have the hype of some of his rivals, but there’s something undeniably exciting about a horse that peaks at the right time, with a strong pedigree and a smart trainer guiding him.
If the pace is fast, and he gets a clean trip, he could be a factor in the Derby’s final furlong. He’s still an underdog, but the best upsets happen when a horse quietly improves, stays under the radar, and then delivers a breakout performance on the biggest stage.
The Race for Greatness
The Kentucky Derby is never just another race. It’s a moment that defines champions, a test that only the best can pass. Will Sandman’s late charge steal the show? Can Tiztastic’s smart racing style win the day? Will Sovereignty or Tappan Street prove their consistency? Or will Final Gambit pull off an upset?
One thing is sure: when the gates open and the race begins, every fan will be on the edge of their seat, watching history unfold.