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No I wasnt the COlonel from the Betfair forum. Dont remember him. What makes you say that?
This years champion hurdle looks to be a lot weaker race than last years.
Cant see anything being able to stop Binocular from gaining back to back champion hurdles.
Hurricane Fly certainly wont be beating Bino and it would surprise me if he could nick a place. Peddlers Cross is no danger in my eyes.
Binocular looks to be the festival banker.
"Also I’ve not seen anyone be recruited by the RP from the internet, why? because their not worthy – people like Willougby and Pricewise are worth their wieght in gold as they have and will be around for years to come because they know what makes profit in the long run and people can trust their opinons."
Just out of interest does anyone know if anyone has ever been recruited from a forum or from the internet to tip for the racing post or any other major organisation?
I have never heard of any but surely some previously unknown somewhere has been offered employment off the back of a forum or emailing etc…
Native Khan at 20/1 ew is where the smart money remains.
Surely the smart money was on Betfair at 100,75,60, and 55"s Zoso for those confident he will run?
The 100 and 110 etc is a good bet to have, as you will be able to lay it back at markedly shorter on the day.
But I expect Frankel to win the race, so the smart money is actually ew on Native Khan at 20/1 as I have explained, Native Khan placing pays better than Frankel winning.
Dream Ahead needs cut to show his best form, the good ground will not be ideal and he will run below form and is the likliest of the top 3 to unplace especially as the run will come to soon for him.
Although I think Frankel will win, he does not have the best form in the race, his win at Ascot was visually outstanding, but I dont believe that Ascot form stands up (I would have loved to have layed Harbinger at around Evens in the Arc if he hadnt of got injured). He won over 1 mile last time, no horse in the last 10 years has ran over a mile and then dropped back down in trip to win this race. Though he is a potential monster so may be up to the task, I certainly wouldnt back Frankel at odds on but will happily watch him win if he can. I dont think he is rock solid though.
Saamidds form is closer to Native Khans and though Saamids is slightly better it is only marginal. Saeed Bin Suroor was on fire when Saamidd had his 2 wins and although they are hardly out of form now he may have already peaked.
The smart money is still definitely on progressive Native Khan at 20/1. For sure. The more I look at it, the more this horse has a genuine chance of winning this race.
The reason is simple Armchair Jockey.
Its a 2yo race and is filled with improvers and developers. Native Khan is a very good horse, he will definitely be running, he is unbeaten and has a progressive profile. He will progress again on Saturday and that puts him bang in the picture.
Frankel was so physically developed early that he may have already peaked and may not be able to improve too much on his form already shown.
The race will come too soon for Dream Ahead and Saamid has probably already peaked for this season.
Native Khan at 20/1 ew is where the smart money remains.
There are 2 reasons why Native Khan was available for a small ammount at 100.00 on betfair.
Reason 1 – 99.5% of people cant see past the winner coming from outside the first 3 in the market, so people are prepared to lay any other horse at stupid prices in the win market.]
Reason 2 – http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/stor … 24834.html
Dunlop has publically stated he isnt sure whether the horse will go for the Dewhurst or for the Racing Post trophy.
Privately however Dunlop knows full well that he is going for the Dewhurst and will definitely run.Keep watching that betfair market and I hope you helped yourself to some of that 100. whilst you could Rory.
He will definitely run, 100% about that.
Why is one of Dream Ahead and Saamidd ‘almost certain to be unplaced’, Zoso?
Because of the nature of the race. An end of season 2yo race is highly unlikely to go according to plan and have the fav, 2nd fav and 3rd fav all filling the places.
Just look at some of the previous winners of this race in the last 10 years:
Beethoven – 1st – 33/1
Intense Focus – 1st – 20/1
Milk It Mick – 1st – 33/1
Tout Seoul – 1st – 25/1I would suggest its bordering on insanity to assume the 1st 3 home will be – Frankel, Saamid and Dream Ahead.
Native Khan ew at 20/1 is where the smart money is.
The smart money is on Native Khan ew at 20/1.
No it isn’t!
Oh yes it is. (we could continue this all afternoon in pantomime fashion).
Frankel will almost definitely win.
It is almost certain that one of – Dream Ahead or Saamid will be unplaced.Native Khan maybe just maybe may even win the race but will almost certainly be in the top 3.
Therefor he has to be the best bet in the race.
If you had £20 to spend, then £20 on Frankel winning at 8/13 would return £32.31.
£10 ew on Native Khan would return £50 if he placed and £260.0 if he won.
It is significant that Corals are the shortest price on Native Khan. Congratulations, you have just had your card marked.
Luca Cumani won this race exactly a quarter of a century ago with Pat Eddery riding Free Guest.
CONTREDANSE is the strongest bet of the decade and the 3yo has an outstanding chance of improving and winning today and becoming Cumanis 2nd winner of this race 25 years after winning it initially.
I have backed Piraya and Madison Du Berlais. Mr Pipe loves to win in front of the channel 4 cameras and both look to hold strong claims.
I think you will find that Mares who are up the duff are the ones whos form improves greatly.
Theory – When a racemare hits a string of form, in which she wins once and then twice in a row, she will simply keep winning IE. the form is unbreakable
What happens when its rag week???
Answer – The unbeatable mare gets beaten.Publicity seeking Journalist in outrageous mafia/racing claims shocker.
Say something contraversial and get free publicity.
Put a sock in it Dave Nevison. You make Lily Allen look to be a non attention seeker.
I dont remember saying that Henderson has a special relationship with Ladbrokes or Hills.
You need to know which bookmaker is educated on which trainer before you should jump to any conclusions, after all one bookmaker is always going to be shorter on a horse, if you dont know the relationship then dont assume anything.
Ladbrokes are certainly of the assumption that the Henderson horse will win though judging by there prices. I
Hills generally offer rubbish prices and dont like to take chances.
I will give you a free tip as a gesture and let you know that the Henderson horse is strongly fancied by Nicky Henderson and is expected to win.
Doesnt mean it will win, but it is expected to.
Bookmakers are in contact with the majority of trainers.
Certain bookmakers have special relationships with certain trainers. The trainers give the bookmakers inside information.
In return for the trainers kindness, the bookmaker will allow the trainer to back his own horse to win with them.
Is a bookmaker crazy for allowing a trainer to directly place a win bet on t here own horse with them = No.
By allowing the trainer to bet with them, they have a deal that they also get told when there horses wont be winning.
Whilst the bookmakers are likely to be paying out money to the trainer when his horse wins, they know that they can offer the shortest price on that horse and so not attract any bets from normal large punters, who will shop around for the best price. They are then able to use there inside information to offer the biggest prices on the horses that they feel wont be winning – so making back the money that they will be paying out for the trainers bet and assuring there book is in profit at the end of the race.
The trainer will let there bookmaker know when there horses are unfit or when they wont be winning as well (not just when they want a win bet with them) to ensure that both the bookmaker and the trainer have a very profitable longterm relationship.
The secret is knowing which trainer is in league with the correct bookmaker.
The most well known link is Aiden O Brien and Ladbrokes although virtually all trainers have this special relationship with certain bookies.
You just need to know the correct bookmaker that the trainer bets with to be able to get free inside information.
Dirty Den was always over rated.
Kauto Star hates the wind.
It was like a hurricane at last years gold cup = The reason Dirty Den won.
The most over hyped horse of all time, im still in shock that he won the 4 runner race at Newbury last year.
Dirty Den stands no chance in the Gold Cup, Ladbrokes go biggest price on him. Take the hint and avoid the fat plodder like the plague.
