Forum Replies Created
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APRIL
3 20 Muss – INGATIEFF – 1pnt ew -8th – 2 points
3 20 Muss – CHOSEN ONE – 1pnt ew -6th = – 2points
3 50 Muss – LA VERGLAS STAR – 2pnt ew – 1st = + 14.40 points
3 50 Muss – LA VERGLAS STAR/FAV – 2pnt SFC = – 2points
5 30 Muss – MY ONE WEAKNESS – 1pnt ew – 9th = – 2points
5 30 Muss – BAHAMIAN KID – 1pnt ew – 11th = -2points
9 00 Dund – CHIP TEA – 2pnt ew – 2nd = + 0.80 points
2 05 Donc – KALKS BAY – 2pnt ew – 14th = – 4 points
3 05 Donc – OUR JOES BOY – 2pnt ew – 11th = – 4points
2 25 Curr – GLOR NA MARA – 2 pnt win – 6th = – 2 points
3 30 Curr – EMULOUS – 2pnt win – 6th = – 2points
4 30 Curr – SKY PILOT – 1pnt ew – 11th = – 2points
2 10 Donc – EARLY APPLAUSE – 2pnt ew – 5th = – 4 points
4 10 and 510 windsor – ATLAS SHRUGGED&GRANDMA DREAM -1pnt ew double – 6th and 6th = – 2 points
2 40 Pont – HALFSIN -2 point win -1st = + 5 Points
2 50 Kempt – LOYALISTE – 2 point win – 3rd = – 2 pointsPROFIT LOSS = -11.80
Minus £1180.00 to £100 per pointLol this guy isnt that good.
Its just a guy off a different forum, who posts a tip ever day. He doesnt keep an in running profit loss but does come back a few months later and always says I have done my figures for the month now and I am 136 points in profit. I have never seen him say he had a losing month yet strangely when I watch him he alwyas seems to lose. Just thought I would keep a proper eye on him for the flat season, and challenge his claims. He will most likely claim a 50 point profit for March.
MARCH 2011
3 05 Curr-LECHEVALIER CHOISI -2pnts ew – 10th = – 4 points
4 05 Curr – TERMAGANT – 2 pnts win – 4th = – 2 points
9 20 Kemp – FOOLS GOLD – 1 pnt ew – 14th = – 2 points
6 30 Dund – ONE KOOL KID – 2 pnt win – 2nd = – 2 points
5 35 Meyd – PRINCE BISHOP – 1pnt ew – 10th = – 2 points
5 35 Meyd – MUSIR – 1pnt ew – 7th = – 2 points
2 00 Ling – ROWE PARK 1pnt ew – 10th = – 2 points
2 00 Ling – FRATELLINO – 1pnt ew – 7th = – 2 points
3 10 Ling – NIDEEB – 2 pnt win – 1st = 11/4 = + 5.5 points
3 10 Ling – SUITS ME – 1pnt ew – 4th = – 2 points
5 30 Leop – ALAYIR – 2pnt ew – 5th = – 4 points
3 10 Ling – HACKETT – 2pnt ew – 12th = – 4 points
3 10 Ling – CROWN RIDGE – 2pnt ew – 3rd = + 0.8 point
3 30 Sout – WELL DEAL AGAIN -2pnt ew – 5th = – 4 points
3 30 Sout – CLEAR ICE – 2pnt ew – 2nd = + 0.5 points
4 30 Sout – JUSTBOOKIEDOTCOM – 1 pnt ew -5th = – 2points
5 00 SOuth – GULF PUNCH – 2 pnt ew – 6th = – 4 points
4 30 Ling – PROFITS REALITY – 1pnt ew – 8th = – 2points
4 20 CAtt – HARDROCK DIAMOND – 1pnt ew – 11th = – 2 points
4 20 CAtt – ANOTHER WISE KID – 2pnt ew – 1st = +14.40 points
3 50 Leic – FORMULATION – 2pnt ew – 2nd = + 0.6 point
4 20 Leic – MOTHER JONES – 2pnt ew – 2nd = + 2.4 points
5 20 Leic – DANCING MAITE – 1pnt ew – 6th = – 2 points
5 20 Leic – AERODYNAMIC – 1pnt ew – 10th = – 2 points24 Selections
Total Points Staked = 68
Profit/Loss = – 22.3 points
To £100 per point = Minus £2230.00Im not altogether sure how they would do that Robert or if in fact its true that they did that – hence whi wrote "(I believe) " as it was something I heard but wasnt sure if it was true.
Isiris Unveiled
Best ever racing book, though the bookmakers (I believe) got it banned from being published in the UK and I think they had to get it printed in east asia, it was only sold to members I think and I doubt you would get a copy of it now. Though if you do manage it then the book is gold dust.
WIth the champ out of the way this race is between Kyber Kim and Thousand Stars. BAcked them both to win at good odds so cant lose.
Its absolutely disgusting that Henderson could be doing these Cheltenham preview nights and telling everyone Binocular was in great form.
Also McCoy telling the press that Binocular had been working electric at home and was his best chance of a winner at the festival. (I assume McCoy would have been fully aware of the real situation).How many people were holding back on a big bet on Binocular and once Henderson gave the glowing reports (when he knew full well the horse had a problem), decided to pile in after hearing Henderson say he was working well.
The bloke is a disgrace and I would be happy to see him get a very lengthy ban from racing.
I actually like the guy and he comes across as a nice bloke (though i have never met him and that is only my opinion from watching interviews with him), but he is out of order big time here.
Its cast a big cloud over the entire festival for me and indeed racing as a sport.
You both have it very wrong.
For a start these arent handicappers, they contest grade 1 and grade 2 races and will generally be running off level weights, so no horse has been unfairly treated as they arent horses who are targeted at handicaps. Its an honest assessment by one of the best judges of horses in the entire country – The official handicapper.
Now you both seem to think that because Peddlers Cross beat Binocular by 7 lengths when Binocular was unfit that Peddlers Cross should clearly have the higher rating.
This is of course absolute rubbish – The main reason being Binocular wasnt fit and the jockey never moved a muscle on him. Where as Peddlers Cross was off the bridle 2 or 3 hurdles from home and Maguire gave him at least 13 smacks compared to Binoculars zero smacks. So to suggest Peddlers Cross should be officially rated higher than Binocular on that performance is ludicrous.
However lets pretend you are correct and Peddlers Cross should be rated higher than Binocular on that performance,
Starluck was only 1 1/4 length behind Peddlers Cross (the horse who isnt good enough to compete at the highest level over hurdles).
Now on Binoculars 2nd run this season he destroyed Starluck by about 14 lengths at Starlucks favourite track (Kempton).
Using your completely incorrect interpretation of form this would surely mean that Binocular would have beaten Peddlers Cross that day by 12 3/4 lengths?Correct me if im wrong.
Binocular will eat the pretender Peddlers Cross alive. He is simply unstoppable here.
For someone who has worked as a top yard and is an experienced trainer (or whatever you were claiming a few pages back), you dont appear to have a great knowledge of how the handicapper works.
I think Peddlers Cross is no good.
And by no good I mean in comparison to what is required to win a champion hurdle as obviously he is a fair animal with lots of potential but unfortunately for the backers of Peddlers Cross – Potential is all that it is.
Binocular, Hurricane Fly, Dunguib, Oscar Whiskey, Menorah and Khyber Kim are all superior horses to Peddlers Cross according to the Official Handicapper.
It really is all hype in regards to Peddlers Cross.
Istabraq had 10 hurdles races before he won his first champion hurdle.
Hardy Eustace had 10 hurdles races before he won his first champion hurdle.
Inexperienced hurdlers who have had less than 10 runs over hurdles hardly ever win this race.
Peddlers Cross has had just 4 novice hurdle races. A win against an unfit and untouched by jockey Binocular (beating Starluck by less than 2 lengths). He only just about beat Bygones Of Brid at Kelso last time, yes he pulled away in the end but a furlong out it looked like Bygones Of Brid may get him.
The form is extremely weak in the context of the champion hurdle and he is very much a hype horse who will come up short on TUesday.
I dont see how Paul Nicholls saying he likes Peddlers Cross in this race has any bearing whatsoever.
Yes Paul Nicholls is an incredible trainer, but that does not make him an incredible tipster, especially in a race that he has no involvement in and has never won.
Mick Fitzgerald says Binocular will win -he has won a champion hurdle and spends time at Hendersons yard so I would say his opinion is of greater worth than Paul Nicholls selection (a selection that he came out with when put on the spot and had to say something).
Though at the same time Mick Fitzgerald saying he thinks binocular will win certainly doesnt mean he will win.Peddlers Cross quite simply lacks the experience needed to win a champion hurdle, no doubting he is a very good horse but the reality is he will be beaten on Tuesday and will be sent chasing next season. He is unbeaten due to being well placed, would he be unbeaten if he didnt allegedly cough before he was due to meet Binocular for a 2nd time this season and was pulled out. I dont think he would have been.
Binocular is the Champion and could possibly go down in history as one of the greatest hurdlers of all time when his career has ended. Peddlers Cross is all hype and doesnt even slightly worry me to be honest.
He is the defending champion, he is proven over CD and is proven at being able to produce his best under these conditions.
He has been targeted all season to peak for this race and will be at his best on the day.
He certainly is the defending champion …but will he be at his best on the day? Binocular fans talk as if he is always spot at the Festival but this is simply not the case.
Once he was simply 2nd best..behind Capt CB in the Supreme
Once he ran 7-10lbs below his best
Once when he was a deserving, impressive winnerSo he has won a third of his visits to the Festival and disappointed on another third of his Festival runs. It seems to me a leap of faith is required that he will perform to his best at Cheltenham…that is a reasonable chance to take as his best may well be good enough but he is certainly not some kind of Festival winning machine that many would have you believe.
Contrary to popular belief Binocular has ALWAYS been at his peak at the CHeletenham festival.
In the last 36 runnings of the Supreme Novice hurdle only one 4yo has managed to win the race.
When Binocular ran in the race he was an inexperienced 4yo, he had never even raced against his elders nor had he raced at a left handed track over hurdles, it was just his 3rd hurdles start. Take out the winner Captain Cee Bee and he basically spreadeagled the field.That was an outstanding performance by a 4yo on his first run against elders, 1st run left handed, 1st run at Cheltenham. People try and crab him because he lost but it was an outstanding run.
When he came 3rd in the champion hurdle in 2009 this was also an outstanding run. 5yos hardly ever win the champion hurdle and on the rare occassions, Katchitt won it as a 5yo recently but he was super tough and had a lot of flat experience before winning it.
Even though the media hyped Binocular up that year, the fact remained he was a very unlikely winner of the race as a 5yo (I layed him that time simply because he was a 5yo). So to finish a very close up 3rd as a 5yo was in fact a great performance.Last year he came of age and destroyed the field. It will be more of the same this year as he reaches a career peak on Tuesday, the only difference being I would say he is even better this time and the field is weaker than last year (despite what everyone says, the others are just hype horses).
There appears to be a myth around that Binocular is not consistent and you never know what you are going to get with him. I think this is absolute rubbish, the horse has won 9 of his 14 races.
He can surely be forgiven for coming 2nd as a 4yo in the Supreme and 3rd as a 5yo in the champion. He clearly wasnt fit and nor did McCoy ask him any question on his seasonal reappearance this year, it was just to get a run into him so surely you can forgive the horse that (as he actually had Peddlers Cross off the bridle a long way from home).
He clearly had some problems last year and when he was 5th at Newcastle and 3rd at Kempton there clearly was a problem, his jumping wasnt right and I believe he had some sort of muscular problem.As far as I can see there have been no problems whatsoever since and basically this horse is super consistent and will be primed to peak on Tuesday. Many said that his run at Sandown in the 3 runner race was really poor, but from what I can see, he won it with absolute ease, and McCoy spent the last 3/4 of a furlong with his neck turned round looking behind him, The media made much too much of that performance and tried to make out that he struggled to win. He won with absolute total ease.
The other horses had better watch out on Tuesday, as one of the all time great hurdlers BINOCULAR is going to show them all up. I cannot believe that anybody could seriously want to be on anything else. Binocular really should be odds on here.
None of the rivals can be taken seriously and Binocular is the real deal, he will win of that I am absolutely certain.
HURRICANE FLY – Has looked good in IReland beating Solwhit on testing ground but is completely unproven out of Ireland.
Solwhits connections have decided that Solwhit is more of a stayer and had entered him in the Stayers Hurdle this year (non runner now), so basically Hurricane Fly has been beating a stayer in Ireland on testing ground and for some reason he is now a shortish price in the biggest test of his life.
His hurdling isnt great and he can jump to the right, the pace of this race will fully expose any chinks in his jumping and he can only dream about being as fluent as Binocular at his flights.
Most winners of the Champion Hurdle finished in the top 4 at the previous festival. Hurricane Fly has never even raced at Cheltenham race track. So we have no idea if he will for one thing handle the huge crowds and noise let alone handle the actual race track itself.
I believe this Hurricane Fly is vastly over hyped and will fail the test dismally.
Also he is sired by Monteju whos record of runners at Cheltenham is 0-44. Many scoff at that statistic and say it is meaningless, but experience tells me it is significant statistic and yet another nail in Hurricanes Flys already weak looking profile.MENORAH – Won the supreme novice hurdle last year at the festival. Winners of the Supreme have an abysmal record when going for the Champion HUrdle the following year. You have to go back to 1971 to find the last Supreme winner who followed up in the Champion so that alone is a big negative to his chance.
The vast majority of CH winners have had at least 10 races over hurdles, the execptions were the flat horses who were switched to hurdling. Menorah has not had enough races and lacks the experience to win. Also 10 of the last 10 winners of the CH had had a race within 51 days of the CH – Menorah hasnt and that stat alone is enough to see him beaten.
Menorah looked good winning a handicap from 151 (i think) before beating a couple of hyped up novices (cue card and Silviano Conti), that form doesnt even come close to what is required to win this race.
Single figure odds on this horse is an insane price and it would be a major shock if he were to win as every single avenue leads to the conclusion that he wont win. And thats before you even consider the ground will be faster than he wants it on the day.PEDDLERS CROSS – The plan for this horse was always to go chasing and its what he will be doing next season. McCain said at the start of the season that he wanted to race him against Binocular when they met at the start of the season to see if he was good enough to have a crack at the champion hurdle.
It is assumed Peddlers Cross was pretty close to full fitness for that race (as there would have been no point running him to find out if he was good enough if he wasnt fully or very close to full fitness). Binocular was apparently 50% fit and McCoy did not touch the horse. Inspite of this Binocular had Peddlers Cross off the bridle with over 2 flights to go, Peddlers Cross was hard ridden a long way out, yet a motionless McCoy on Binocular amazingly jumped alongside Peddlers Cross at the last, until the fitness and lack of jockey effort tried and PEddlers was allowed to skip away and win by 7 lengths. A fully fit Binocular (which is what we will be seeing on Tuesday) will absolutely eat Peddlers Cross alive. This horse stands no chance whatsoever of beating Binocular. He falls short on experience and has not had the required 10 starts over hurdles (and no flat experience) to be considered as a winner of this race. He is unbeaten over hurdles which is why his price is falsely short but the reality is he has just been well placed by McCain, in taking on an unfit Binocular and he is yet to race against a fit top class horse.OSCAR WHISKEY – Hendersons other runner, yet another runner who comes up short on experience needed to win this race so can quickly be ruled out. WHen he won first time out this season Barry Gerraghty got off him and said this horse needs 3miles to show his best. Racing against the fastest hurdler alive in the Champion hurdle will see him dealt with and he is out of his depth here. Simply wont have the gears to live with Binocular.
DUNGUIB – Yet another so called contender who simply doesnt have the experience to win the race. His hurdling was diabolical last year, he has only raced once this year and did win and his hurdling looked better but it was only a 3 runner race and he is also in danger of bouncing on this 2nd run back from a year off in the big race. His hurdling will be tested to the limit in this field and i dont expect him to pass the test, even if his jumping does stand up he simply isnt good enough to live with Binocular.
MILLE CHIEF – Yet another horse who the statistics say cant win the Champion Hurdle. Lacks experience and on all known form will come up short. Alan King talks very highly of him and it is due to the trainers hype that he trades so short in the betting.
HE is a 5yo and 5yos winning a champion hurdle is extremely rare, A 5yo is the first horse i cross off n the champion hurdle as a possible winner. Not without question he could get a price but from a win perspective absolutely not.OVERTURN – Not good enough and simply being used as a pacemaker.
KHYBER KIM – 2nd in last years Champion Hurdle but hard to see him reversing the form with Binocular as Bino looks even better this season. According to trends the only possible winner apart from Binocular but Binocular is quite simply the better horse has beaten him before and will beat him again.
Basically everysingle stat and trend suggests Binocular will win this race.
He also has the highest Official Rating, The completely unbiased Handicapper says Binocular is clearly the best horse in the race.
He is the defending champion, he is proven over CD and is proven at being able to produce his best under these conditions.
He has been targeted all season to peak for this race and will be at his best on the day.
AP McCoy recently said that he really cannot see what could beat Binocular in this race.
Everything is ideal for another Binocular win, the majority of the rivals quite simply lack the experience to win the race.
Hurricane Fly has major question s to answered and appears vastly over hyped and is a very unlikely winner.The only shock in this race is -Why the hell isnt Binocular trading at odds on because he really shoudl be in this field. Currently 100/30 but that price will get smaller and smaller the closer we get and in reality he is going to go off at either 6/4 or 7/4.
I believe Binocular is the best hurdler I have ever seen in my lifetime and I doubt I will ever witness one as good as this again. When his career ends I believe he will have gone down in history as one of the all time great horses.
This race on Tuesday is a formality as far as Im concerned. The rivals are all racing for 2nd place only.
I think What A Friend will win this race and will then go onto win the Cheltenham Gold Cup in MArch. Definitely looks Paul NIcholls best chance of winning the gold Cup this year.
10 of the last 10 winners of the Champion Hurdle has finished in the top 4 at the previous years festival – Hurricane Fly did not even run at last years festival.
Not only that he has never even ran at Cheltenham at any point in his career so we have no idea if he will act at the track as many top horses simply dont like it there.
Beef Or Salmon was a bad traveller, brilliant in Ireland but ran poor when in UK. We dont know that HUrricane Fly will handle the trip over, possible he could be another Beef or Salmon.
Will he handle the atmosphere and noise at CHeltenham or will he be freaked out, sweat up and run below form? We dont know as he has never experienced anything like it.
There is a good chance the ground will be riding gd-sft at the festival. Is Hurricane Fly effective on gd-sft? He never raced on that surface in Ireland and on the two occasions he ran on gd-sft in France he was unplaced, finishing last of 7 on the one occasion
HUrricane Fly is by Monteju – A Monteju horse has NEVER won at CHeltenham and it is percieved that they just dont stay up the hill. Would be foolish to take a short price on a Monteju horse at Cheltenham.
Binocular destroyed Solwhit by 18 lengths in the Champion Hurdle last year. Hurricane Fly has only been beating Solwhit by 2 or 3 lengths. Admittedly that isnt a solid line of form to take as Solwhit probably didnt handle the track in the CH but still you would have to be worried that Binocular will do to Hurricane Flyer the same as what he did to Solwhit.
How fit will Hurricane Flys jockey be on the big day? Would Ruby Walsh be returning from injury in March if the Festival wasnt on, or is he hurrying back sooner than he should? If its the latter then an unfit jockey is a big negative.
Also Hurricane Fly was not very fluent at his hurdles early in the Irish Champion Hurdle and he was also jumping right handed at them. Anything other than razor sharp straight hurdling in the CH and he will be out of the race.
So taking everything into account I would say Hurricane Fly is no danger to Binocular and would do well to place in the race, though it is a weak champion hurdle this year despite of what everyone else is saying in the media about it being a much stronger race so you never know he may nick 3rd or something but I would expect him to be unplaced.
