Forum Replies Created
- Posts
Sat Dec 21 at Nakayama
Oisin – 2 x 1st, 3 x 2nd, 1 x 3rd from 8 rides for JPY 28m (GBP 200k)
Ryan – 2 x 1st, 1 x 2nd, 1 x 4th from 6 rides for JPY 32m (GBP 222k)
[half of that from win for Godolphin in absence on suspension of William]in tomorrow’s Arima Kinen, Oisin on Suave Richard and Ryan on Kiseki.
JRA preview here:
http://japanracing.jp/_news2019/191217.htmlHKJC simulcasting 7 races, its expert Naohiro Goda writing of the feature:
“The Grand National in Great Britain, the Kentucky Derby in US, the Melbourne Cup in Australia, and the Arima Kinen in Japan, they are races which the public pays attention much more than any other races. If you could bet on Japanese horse racing only once in a year, it would be Arima Kinen. The runners in this race are selected through the voting by racing fans, and it is one of winter features in Japan.
Japanese are really charged up, more than an average year, for the National event, thanks to ALMOND EYE. The super filly was supposed to run at Sha Tin two weeks ago, however, her trip to Hong Kong was cancelled two days before departure, due to an elevated temperature. It is a pity for all involved in horse racing in the world. Fortunately, her temperature was returned to normal on following day and she missed only one training day. She breezed at Miho Training Center on 11th December and clocked 65.6 seconds for 1,000m. It is fantastic workout and I am convinced she is in top form. And once it is confirmed that she is ready to run the race, I am quite sure the winner of Arima Kinen this year is ALMOND EYE. Yes, it is true that she has never run the race beyond 2,400m and never run at Nakayama before. However, I do not think they could be the factors to bother her.
My second choice is LYS GRACIEUX, as I believe she is the second best horse in the field, or even the second best horse in training in Japan at the moment. While she ran well in Hong Kong, finishing second to EXULTANT in the G1 Hong Kong Vase in December 2018 and third to WIN BRIGHT in the G1 Queen Elizabeth II Cup in April 2019, they were not her best performances. It was more impressive to see her winning the G1 Takarazuka Kinen by three lengths at Hanshin in June 2019, and far more brilliant when she won the G1 Cox Plate by one and a half lengths at Moonee Valley in October 2019. MAGIC WAND, who was beaten four lengths by LYS GRACIEUX at Cox Plate, won the G1 Mackinnon Stakes at Flemington and finished second in the G1 Hong Kong Cup at Sha Tin subsequently. She is a class horse and will come second on Sunday.
It is still fresh memory that GLORY VASE ran superbly at Sha Tin, winning the G1 Hong Kong Vase by three and a half lengths. And when he finished second in the G1 Tenno Sho Spring at Kyoto in April, the winner was FIEREMENT. It was undoubtedly a disappointing performance of him when he only finished twelfth in the G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. But his disappointing performance can be attributed to the sloppy track at ParisLongchamp which he was not able to handle. Nakayama is his favourite track as he started twice there and won one of them, and finished second in other outing. FIEREMENT is my third choice.
KISEKI, who finished second to LYS GRACIEUX in the G1 Takarazuka Kinen, is my fourth choice.
And CHEVAL GRAND, who finished third in this race in 2017 and 2018, is my fifth choice.
SELECTIONS: 9. ALMOND EYE, 6. LYS GRACIEUX, 5. FIEREMENT, 11. KISEKI & 16. CHEVAL GRAND ”
https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/overseas/english/20191222/S1/6/expert-column.aspx?para=/20191222/S1/6
Sadly not, yeats.
In the accounts to 31 December 2018 they seem for the first time to have stopped giving out the figures for their print sales.
The Strategic Report (p.4 of the pdf) speaks of “transitioning to digital-first and away from traditional print”
“….which continues to face challenges. The Racing Post has a loyal readership, and it is this loyalty, together with unwavering support from the horseracing and betting industry, which has helped to restrict the business’s print declines. The decline in Racing Post circulation sales was in line with the performance of other newspapers in the UK and Ireland.”
On p.24 of the pdf is Note 3:
“3. Turnover
….The company has decided not to disclose information by segment as the directors deem that the information is prejudicial to the interests of the company. ”
Full accounts downloadable here:
https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/03387163/filing-history
RP and RP Weekender are not registered with ABC, so no joy from that route:
https://www.abc.org.uk/product?search=racing+postdo wonder what they tell advertisers in the print edition about how many will see their ads…..
Sun Dec 15 at Hanshin
Oisin – 2 x 1st, 1 x 2nd, 1 x 4th, 1 x 5th from 10 rides for JPY 22m (GBP 157k)
Ryan – 1 x 1st (fav in G1 Asahi Hai Futurity)), 1 x 2nd, 1 x 5th from 5 rides for JPY 78m (GBP 556k)
William – 1 x 3rd, 1 x 4th, 1 x 5th from 6 rides for JPY 4.5m (GBP 32k)Ryan’s eighth Japanese G1 – video link here:
http://japanracing.jp/en/Sat Dec 14 at Nakayama
Oisin – 2 x 1st, 1 x 2nd, 2 x 3rd, 1 x 4th from 9 rides for JPY 18.5m (GBP 132k)
Ryan – 1 x 1st, 1 x 2nd from 4 rides for JPY 11m (GBP 79k)
William – 1 x 1st, 1 x 3rd from 4 rides for JPY 18.1m (GBP 129k)Sun move on to Hanshin.
Sun Dec 8
Japan takes 3 of the 4 international races, though sadly not with Oisin’s mounts (Deirdre 4th and Persian Knight 5th).
results and video links here – races 4, 5, 7 and 8:
https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/information/english/Racing/LocalResults.aspx?RaceDate=2019/12/08&Racecourse=ST&RaceNo=4wins HKD 2m (GBP 194k)
Japan takes 3 of the 4 international races, though sadly not with Oisin’s mounts (4th and 5th).
results and video links here – races 4, 5, 7 and 8:
https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/information/english/Racing/LocalResults.aspx?RaceDate=2019/12/08&Racecourse=ST&RaceNo=4pro-democracy demonstrations took crowd down to 27,965 from 96,388 last year, but betting turnover still up HKD 115m (GBP 10m) at HKD 1.7bn (GBP 167m).
Sat Dec 7
Oisin at Chukyo – 2 x 2nd, 1 x 4th, 1 x 5th from 6 rides for JPY 22m (GBP 155k).
returns to HK tomorrow for two Japanese horses: Deirdre in HK Vase, and Persian Knight in HK Mile.
Sun Dec 1
Oisin, Ryan and Frankie at Chukyo:
Oisin – 1 x 1st, 1 x 2nd, 2 x 4th, 1 x 5th from 8 rides for JPY 14m (GBP 100k)
Ryan – 1 x 2nd, 2 x 3rd, 1 x 4th from 8 rides for JPY 13m (GBP 92k)
Frankie – 2 x 1st, 1 x 2nd from 5 rides for JPY 27m (GBP 193k)William at Nakayama:
2 x 1st, 1 x 2nd, 1 x 4th, 1 x 5th from 8 rides for JPY 22m (GBP 154k)Sat Nov 30
Oisin and William at Nakayama:
Oisin – 1 x 1st, 2 x 2nd, 1 x 4th from 10 rides for JPY 35m (GBP 250k)
William – 3 x 1st, 2 x 3rd from 7 rides for JPY 93m (GBP 665k)Ryan and Frankie at Hanshin:
Ryan – 1 x 2nd, 2 x 3rd from 6 rides for JPY 13m (GBP 95k)
Frankie – 1 x 1st, 1 x 3rd from 5 rides for JPY 11m (GBP 77k)as long as the editorialising [ie the vet’s decision to report/ not report a condition] is reasonably objective, should be left to the punter to interpret [however well/ill able to do so].
hkjc puts these in public domain:
https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/information/english/VeterinaryRecords/OveRoar.aspx
https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/information/english/VeterinaryRecords/OveDatabase.aspx
JRA:
Third favorite Suave Richard claimed this year’s Japan Cup while capturing his much awaited second G1 title since his Osaka Hai victory last year and has now collected five grade-race titles. After the Osaka Hai, he marked four third-place finishes—the Yasuda Kinen (1,600m) and the Japan Cup last year, along with the Dubai Sheema Classic (2,410m) and the Takarazuka Kinen (2,200m) earlier this season. The five-year-old bounced back remarkably today from his recent Tenno Sho (Autumn) (G1, 2,000m) start in which he was seventh.
For trainer Yasushi Shono, this is his second JRA-G1 title following the Osaka Hai victory with Suave Richard and jockey Oisin Murphy, who is riding under a short-term license, has now landed his first G1 and second graded victory following the G3 Negishi Stakes he claimed in January this year.
The 15-horse field broke in front of the stands on the soggy track with Daiwa Cagney, Danburite and Win Tenderness disputing for the lead. Apart from four horses trailing far behind, the leading group was tightly bunched up cruising down the backstretch with Suave Richard relaxed in seventh to eighth, four to five lengths from the pace on the rails.
As the field fanned out at the top of the stretch, Suave Richard kicked into gear surging through an opening near the rails, inherited the lead from the tiring frontrunner before the furlong marker and dueled briefly with the strong challenge of Curren Bouquetd’or. However, the chestnut easily pulled away, showing a stronger drive to the wire to notch a 3/4-length win.
………..
[Jockey: Oisin Murphy] “I suppose it’s a dream come true to have won this race. I was happy with Suave Richard in his gallops and he felt brilliant—Japan Cup is one of the most famous races around the world and it’s very hard to win so I wasn’t confident but very hopeful. Suave Richard has got a lot of quality, he’s a very good mover with a lot of pace—if you’ve seen his gallops he does incredible times.
As for race plans, first of all I looked at the draw and I saw that Curren Bouquetd’or was in one—she’s a very good filly—Wagnerian was in two, (Christophe) Lemaire was in four and Yasunori Iwata was in six. So all the good horses, in my mind, were around me….it was about getting behind one of them, following the right one, getting the horse to relax, and then give him every chance. (As a result) I was following Curren Bouquetd’or—she was the one travelling as well as me, turning into the straight and she had a very good trip (she is trained by my trainer, Sakae Kunieda, maybe if I was not so fat I could do 53 kilos and rode her and might not have won the Japan Cup today (laugh)).
Suave Richard has a lot of quality and I was very happy with my positioning into the first turn. The most important thing was for him to relax. The ground was hard work today and when the ground is slow, you can’t waste energy. (At the straight) I had the option of forcing Curren Bouquetd’or out –that would have taken a bit of energy but he’s a big enough horse to do that—but then I saw the inside open, it was easier to go the shortest way. I knew in the last 200 meters that Suave Richard would win. On this ground, horses get very tired and so I just wanted him to keep on going and after a big race it’s very hard to immediately understand how important it is, but sure the Japan Cup for me is one of the best races in the world and I won’t sleep for a week. It’s a big relief (to have won my first big title here in Japan) as I want to win group ones all over the world, and it’s…super.
Japanese horses are my friends and I hope they will be my friends for many years to come. The quality in Japan is really high and the world stage will be hearing a lot more about Japanese horses. I would love to win many more G1’s in Japan but it’s very hard to win—I rode in the Epsom Derby when I was 18 but I didn’t win my first G1 until I think I was 21 or 22.”
Sun Nov 24:
Oisin takes the Japan Cup with run up the rail on Suave Richard.
for video and result click second photo here:
http://japanracing.jp/en/day’s results from Tokyo:
Oisin: 1 x 1st, 1 x 2nd, 1 x 3rd, 1 x 4th, 1 x 5th from 9 rides for JPY 312m (GBP 2.23m)
William: 1 x 3rd, 2 x 4th from 7 rides for JPY 4.5m (GBP 32k)
Ryan: 1 x 2nd, 1 x 5th from 4 rides for JPY 2.7m (GBP 19k)
Frankie: 1 x 1st, 1 x 2nd from 6 ridesfor JPY 7.8m (GBP 56k)Oisin quote from post-Japan Cup press conference:
” I was following [eventual second] Curren Bouquetd’or—she was the one travelling as well as me, turning into the straight and she had a very good trip (she is trained by my trainer, Sakae Kunieda, maybe if I was not so fat I could have done 53 kilos and ridden her and might not have won the Japan Cup today (laugh)). ”Oisin takes it with run up the rail on Suave Richard.
for video and result click on second photo here:
http://japanracing.jp/en/full JRA report to come.
HKJC overseas expert Naohiro Goda [written before going on Sat described as Soft, Rainy [GB:heavy]:
The 39th running of G1 Japan Cup does not include any international challenger. It is the first time for the icon of horse racing in Japan, which was inaugurated in 1981 as the first international race taken place in Japan, to carry no international flavor.
It is obvious that the connections of top class 2,000m to 2,400m horses prefer to run in the G1 Hong Kong Cup or the G1 Hong Kong Vase two weeks later at Sha Tin. All of runners in the field are Japanese-trained horses, though, it has depth, for example there are three Tokyo Yushun winners, and I am sure it is exciting renewal.
My first pick is CHEVAL GRAND, winner of this race in 2017. The 7YO horse had European campaign this summer, after finishing second in the G1 Dubai Sheema Classic at Meydan in March, and failed to get results expected. However, there are excuses. The ground was too soft when he finished sixth in the G1 King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot. And there was no pace at all and the distance was too short when he finished eighth in the G1 International Stakes at York. Tokyo is his favourite track, where he won two races and finished within first four at all four starts so far. And it is very encouraging factor that Christophe Soumillon is booked for him. Soumillon has won the Japan Cup in 2014, ridding EPIPHANEIA, and we have just seen his excellent riding performance on 10th November at Kyoto where he won the G1 Queen Elizabeth II Cup, riding LUCKY LILAC.
My second choice is SUAVE RICHARD, another HEART’S CRY horse in the field. Though he has won the G1 Osaka Hai over 2,000m at Hanshin, where is clockwise track, I believe 2,400m is more suitable for him and he handles anticlockwise track better. In fact, he ran well in last year’s Japan Cup, finishing third, where CHEVAL GRAND was a quarter of length behind him. And as like CHEVAL GRAND, it is encouraging factor that Oisin Murphy, current season’s Champion jockey in Britain, is booked for him on Sunday.
It is remarkable statistic that six out of last ten running of Japan Cup were won by fillies or mares. Though it might be too early to compare CURREN BOUQUETD’OR with the those fillies or mares who won Japan Cup, such as VODKA, BUENA VISTA, GENTILDONNA and ALMOND EYE, I believe the 3YO filly by DEEP IMPACT is talented horse. She was narrowly beaten second in the G1 Yushun Himba, over the same course and distance as Japan Cup. After finishing second again in the G1 Shuka Sho, she skipped the G1 Queen Elizabeth II Cup, for fillies and mares, on 10th November at Kyoto, and is heading to run Japan Cup instead. She is my third choice.
WAGNERIAN is the G1 Tokyo Yushun winner in 2018, and the lightly-raced 4YO colt by DEEP IMPACT finished fifth in the G1 Tenno Sho Autumn last time out. It was not bad effort, and extra 400m should help him to perform better on Sunday. He is my fourth choice.
Recent form of REY DE ORO is not very good, however, he is the winner of the G1 Tokyo Yushun in 2017 and the G1 Tenno Sho Autumn in 2018, both of which took place at Tokyo, and I think we should not neglect him. The 5YO horse ridden by William Buick is my fifth choice.
SELECTIONS: 11. CHEVAL GRAND, 5. SUAVE RICHARD, 1. CURREN BOUQUETD’OR, 2. WAGNERIAN & 8. REY DE ORO
Sat Nov 23
Oisin in Kyoto: 2 x 1st; 2 x 2nd; 1 x 3rd; 1 x 4th from 9 rides for JPY 36m (GBP 257k)
William, Ryan and Frankie in Tokyo:
William: 3 x 1st [all Godolphin-owned, 3 different local trainers]; 1 x 3rd from 7 rides for JPY 45m (GBP 321k)
Ryan: 3 x 2nd; 1 x 4th from 6 rides for JPY 15m (GBP 108k)
Frankie: 2 x 1st; 1 x 4th from 5 rides for JPY 19m (GBP 136k)Tokyo going today described as Soft, Rainy [GB: heavy].
interesting JRA view on how internationally going descriptions can involve jurisdictions being “divided by a common language”: page 8 of this pdf:
http://japanracing.jp/_news2019/pdf/191120.pdf
eg Japan has four:
1. Firm
2. Good
3. Yielding
4. Softfor which the GB equivalents are listed as:
1. Hard; Firm; Good To Firm; Good
2. Good To Soft
3. Soft
4. Heavyequivalents also listed for Ireland, France, Germany, Italy, USA, Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong, Dubai, Singapore.
Frankie has today been given short-term licence from Nov 23 – Dec 2:
http://japanracing.jp/_news2019/191122-02.htmlbasic JRA cards / PMU odds for Sat/Sun now out:
http://japanracing.jp/en/racing/result/HKJC will be simulcasting 7 races on Sunday, so detailed pdf form (and subsequent video replays) up soon here:
https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/overseas/english/racecard.aspx?para=/20191124/S1/7
