Forum Replies Created
-
Posts
-
tttracing.
As you can see by the results,as you state March was a loseing month.But the 3 Races system doe’s not rely on the outcome of winning favorites,but on the outcome of the percentage of winning races.<br>Races as against Horses.
March was very unusual,with 4 loseing meetings in succession.Although the system can take a long loseing run,because over a period,the percentage is in the systems favor.Eventually the system will come into profit,although the profit will take longer to achive.<br>Patience is the basis of this system.
I will continue to post ALL the results.
tttracing.Keep checking the results,and see how this system comes into its own.
You CAN make money from this system,as I have done for years.Don’t give up.Give it a good run.
Check it for yourself,if you have any past results.
tttracing.
The last update was on March 21,2003.
There have been no bets since that date.
I won’t forget to update.
The bank started with £210.00.
The Bank now stands at £196.75.
A loss of £13.25 since the start.
This System only works over a period of time.
I guarantee that it will come around to show a profit.
The results have been VERY bad,Don’t know why.
I have not lost interest,I have been using this system for years,and never failed to show a profit.
Anyone can check this system against the form book,results pages.
Keep checking.
(Edited by william winalot at 1:05 am on Mar. 27, 2003)
Ok Lads.
Just trying to help.
Must have gotten mixed up somewhere.
Try out the small program I posted,see what you think.
Good Luck.
Ok Lads.
I agree with you both.
But I still say that if you consistently get 20 winners from 100 selections,then the winners should’nt vary to much from this calculation.It is possible that you will get 0 winners from 100 selections,where doe’s your formula calculate for this.If your selection method holds to 20 winners over any given period,then I am sure that your percentage will always be 20%,it can not vary from this.<br>The law of percentages is always based around 100,so how do you get 9.93%,mathematics is a proven formula.Your selections are random,your selections can vary one way or the other,UP or Down.The formula that you have shown me can only work if your selections are constant,that is,they never vary from 20 out of 100.If they vary even by one,then no formula can give you a true percentage.
If I was trying to work out a probable percentage for your selections,then I would  use the method below.
I work with GWBASIC to do this program.It should work with any BASIC PROGRAM.
This program will tell you how many times a given number will come up out of 100 selections or more.
This might not  be what you are trying to achieve.
If you do not have GWBASIC,then if you wish I could E-Mail the program to you.Here is the program I would use.
1 DIM C(10000)<br>10 ClS:KEY OFF<br>20 RANDOMIZE TIMER<br>30 A=INT(RND*100)+1<br>35 RANDOMIZE TIMER<br>40 B=INT(RND*100)+1<br>50 IF A=B THEN C(A)=C(A)+1:D=D+1<br>60 IF D=100 THEN GOTO 80<br>70 GOTO 20<br>80 FOR E=1 TO 200<br>90 IF C(E)>=1 THEN F=C(E)+F:PRINT E;"=";C(E);"{";F;"}"<br>100 NEXT
Cormack15.
I can’t see how Nick Hattons formula works.<br>I have tryed to work it out.<br>The solution I get is as follows.
<br>20 wins from 100 bets.
100/20*80*100*0.2^20*0.8^80=7410686E-18
How doe’s this  calculation tell you the chance of your next probability.
As I said if you get 20 wins from 100 selections,then your next sequence is the same.
Example:Each year my age increases by 1 year,it doe’s not matter how long I live,my age only increases by 1 year.
If you pick 20 winners from 100 selections,your next 100 selections SHOULD be the same,or to put it another way,see below.
   2 winners from    10 selections<br>   20 winners from   100 selections<br>  200 winners from  1000 selections<br>2000 winners from 10000 selections<br>So on.ETC:
It doe’s not matter how many selections there are,the percentage will always be the same.
If I am wrong please enlighten me.<br>
Cormack15.
Maybe I don’t understand what you were looking for.
I miss typed in my Example.Should have read.6/4 winners=6/4+1.00=2.5,sorry about that.
You say that you wan’t to know the probabilities of your WINNERS against Selections.
My understanding would be as follows.
If you had 1 WINNER from 2 Selections,then the probability of getting the next selection right,would be 50%.
If you had 20 WINNERS from 100 Selections,then the probality of getting another 20 Winners from the next set of 100 selections would be the same,namely 20%.
But the Law of Probality must come into your calculations.
100/20=5<br>100/5=20
A 6/4 chance has a 40% chance of winning,according to the odds.
6/4+1.00=2.5<br>100/2.5=40
It doe’s not matter how many times there is a 6/4 chance in a race,the chance is always 40% against the rest of the field,so if you have 20 winners from 100 selections,the chance of getting 20 from the next 100 is always the same 20%,providing that you can guarantee 20 winners from 100.
You must base your calculations around 100 percent.<br>This is how a betting book is made up.
Am I right to assume that this is what to were looking for.
(Edited by william winalot at 4:39 pm on Mar. 19, 2003)
Hello Nick Hatton.
I don’t know if this is the right approach.<br>Let me know if it is.
Try this.
<br>100/20+1.00=6
100/6=16.66
Or rounded off 17 winners in the next 100
Divide the number of bets by the number of winners plus one.
Then divide 100 by the above answer.
Example.
6 bets,4 winners=6/4+1.00=2.5
100/2.5=40 or 40% probability of winning.
Is this the right approach.
Hope it helps.
3 RACES RESULTS.STARTED ON FEBRUARY 20,2003:BANK £210.00
LAST 3 RACES ONLY.
BETS £1.00,£2.00,£4.00,STOP AT A WINNER <br>_________________________________________________________________
Southwell     Feb 20 L    L    L      -£ 7.00 Bank=£203.00. <br>Wolverhampton Feb 21 L     L    L     -£ 7.00 Bank=£196.00. <br>Hereford      Feb 23 L     L    3/1    +£ 9.00 Bank=£205.00 <br>Catterick     Feb 25 L     L    3/1    +£ 9.00 Bank=£214.00 <br>Wolverhampton Feb 28  7/4            +£ 1.75 Bank=£215.75
Started February 20 <br>February 5 Bets    + £ 5.75 <br>3 Winning Bets<br>2 Loseing Bets<br>__________________________________________________________________<br>March 1,2003
Wolverhampton March  3  L    L    L    -£7.00  Bank £208.75 <br>Plumpton      March 10  L    L   5/2   +£7.00 Bank £215.75<br>Fontwell      March 17  L   5/4       +£1.50 Bank £217.25<br>Exeter       March 18  L    L    L   -£7.00  Bank £210.25 <br>Chepstow     March 19  L    L    L   -£7.00  Bank £203.25
Doncaster    March 21  L    L    L    -£7.00   Bank £196.25
Carlisle      March 28  L    L    L   -£7.00  Bank £189.25
Wolverhampton March 31 L   7/4       +£2.50 Bank £191.75
March 8 Bets – £24.00<br>3 Winning Bets<br>5 Loseing Bets
Overall – £18.25   Bank=£191.75<br>________________________________________________________________<br>April 1,2003
Newcastle      April 1   L    L    L   -£7.00  Bank £184.75<br>Ludlow        April 2  L   7/4      +£2.50  Bank £187.25<br>Ripon         April 2  L    L    L   -£7.00  Bank £180.25 <br>Aintree        April 3  L     L   L   -£7.00  Bank £173.25<br>Aintree        April  5  L    7/4     +£2.50 Bank £175.75
(Edited by william winalot at 7:23 pm on April 6, 2003)
3 RACES RESULTS.STARTED ON FEBRUARY 20,2003:BANK £210.00
LAST 3 RACES ONLY.
BETS £1.00,£2.00,£4.00,STOP AT A WINNER <br>________________________________________________________   Very Sorry  AMMENDED RESULTS.Looked  at wrong Results I had Down.Will Not Happen AGAIN.Here Are The RIGHT RESULTS,With Dates.Easier to Check.. <br>________________________________________________________                    <br>Southwell     Feb 20 L    L    L      -£ 7.00 Bank=£203.00. <br>Wolverhampton Feb 21 L     L    L     -£ 7.00 Bank=£196.00. <br>Hereford      Feb 23 L     L    3/1    +£ 9.00 Bank=£205.00 <br>Catterick     Feb 25 L     L    3/1    +£ 9.00 Bank=£214.00 <br>Wolverhampton Feb 28  7/4            +£ 1.75 Bank=£215.75
Started February 20 <br>February 5 Bets    + £ 5.75
Winalot <br>____________________________________________ <br>March 1,2003
Wolverhampton March 3  L    L    L    -£7.00 Bank £208.75
<br>There have been NO bets since March 3,2003.
Watch this space
P.S.See my DAILY tips in Betting Tips Forum,Different System.
Hello Jar.
<br>Brilliant Return on Investment
Keep up the good work.
Excellent.
If it’s not broken,don’t try to fix it.
Winalot.
Hello Jar.
Very well done.
£42.48 with a Starting Bank of £200.00 is a great achievement.
Keep up the good work
I will follow with great interest.
Even if a profit of only £1.00 is made.That would be enough to make an income.As long that £1.00 profit can be maintained.
Again great stuff.
Winalot.
Hello Bertie.
Could’nt post here yesterday,wen’t out for a drink { Bucket },got blotto.
I thought we were all having a little bit of fun on this post.
Seams some people have no sense of humor.
I did’nt know that Jim was from Glascow,I love Glascow,always have a great time when I am over there,Love the sense of humor of the Glass wee Gins
Next time I am over in Glascow,I think I’ll ask Jim out for a drink of orange,and make up.I might even give him a Winner or two.
Good Luck.
Winalot.<br>
Hello Bertie.
How can Jim Jts become Pope,You say he is one of the 3 Wise Men,1 Jim Jts,2,Ian Davies,3 Rory.
Doe’s JTS stand for.Jesus The Savior.
Jesus Saves.At the Bank of Ireland.<br>Just like myself.
And Bertie,Jim will not like you for quoteing him at 10/11 favorite.He hates odds on Favorites.Anyway his true odds are more likely to be 50/1.
If Jim should ever become Pope,his First Blessing,should be on the horses he selects,they would need all the blessings they can get.
To become Pope,You must have intelligence,great knowledge,wisdom.I qualify on all 3 counts.I think I’ll put my name forward.
There are no Updates,Because there have only been 4 meetings so far.Maybe today.
I will post updates as they come up.I won’t forget.
May the Blessings of God,be on you all,opps sorry got carried away with myself,and the Elections did’nt even start yet.
Win A Lot
<br>
Jim Jts.
I did’nt know you could laugh,I did’nt think you had it in you.
I guess if I was standing on your right side at the race meeting,were my stupid odds on favorite lost,an I accidentally touched you,I would feel a right plonker.
With your selections Jim,I rekon you’ll end up buying BIG TISSUES,Bo Ho.
See Ya.
Win A Lot
Jim Jts.
OK.Jim,lets stop joking around,and get serious.
Give all My trophies away if you like.<br>Don’t put me on top,in the Forum leading winners table.
I’ll admit for the first time in my life,Get this.
I DO NOT want to come out on top of the forum tables,I wan’t to come SECOND to the person/s that you say are much better than me in this game.That way I will be RICH beyond my wildest dreams,again.I don’t want to back favorites,I wan’t to back outsiders all day long.I wan’t to see my Bank in the red.I wan’t a loseing run of around 20 losers.I will NOT back the horse with the best Speed,Weight,Class in the race,that would be very foolish of me.I will only back horses at the Cheltenham Festival,that have never won a race in their life time.<br>I will only back horses Each way,and lose my winning bet in the process.I will only back horses that are not in the first four in the betting S.P.I will only back horses in races of 16 or more runners.I will only back horses with an apprentice jockey,carrying a penalty.
This is my new resolution for selecting winners.Doe’s it get your approval.
I am going to change my Forum name from Winalot to Midas.
Midas well get a Job.
<br>Off now to the bank,I think I am going to need a mortgage on my house,to pay the bookies off.
Are well,at least my Goldfish loves me.
Nice chatting to you.
To everyone else:SEE BELOW.
<br>J U S T-J O K I N G
<br>WIN A LOT.
Jim Jts.
Why are you on this Forum.
You said yourself,we are here to discuss our opinions with each other.That is what a Forum is all about.
I Am in competition with Everyone on this Forum.<br>I hope to be the Best with my systems or selections,and to have the Biggest profit margin on the forum.<br>I am sure everyone else { barring yourself } feels the same I do,I sincerely hope so.<br>Maybe I could be wrong,Ah Ah,Ah,What a laugh,Me WRONG.
It is nice to see that you are happy winning trophies.<br>But trophies won’t pay for anything that I enjoy.<br>I like the Good life that my winnings bring me.<br>Although if I do win any trophies on this forum,I will accept them greatfully,start getting them ready to send to me.
Would you rather me come onto this Forum,and  tell people about this Great system I have,that shows LOSSES.I don’t think so.
You wan’t to educate Me,your the one that asked me for help,picking the winners,of the two races mentioned on your post.You said that you were having difficulty making your selections.
It is easy getting through to me.
My Forum Members name is WINALOT.
You can get through anytime you like.
Speed,Weight,Class,Prevails above all else in the racing game.
Why do you think MORE Favorites win than any other horses,and why are they called Favorites.
Because they have the Speed,Weight,Class above the rest of the field.
Look at all the Superior horses that are going to run at Cheltenham.
Do you think none of these horses have the Speed,Weight,Class to win at this great festival Meeting.
I can’t wait for Cheltenham,It is the Best Meeting all year.I think you already know that.
I think you are a very sensible man in Your approach to your betting.
If you do not like me making Small jokes on this Forum<br>and would like to have serious dissussions,If that would’nt bore you,Send Reply,or if you like,Send trophy instead.I remain.
WIN A L O T
Jim Jts.
You asked me to help You select the winners of these two races.
Which I did.
2 Races 2 WINNERS.
I did NOt select the Favorite in the 4:05 race,as you asked.The reason I selected Legal Set was because in my opinion { if that counts for anything } he had the best,Wait for it,Speed,Weight,CLASS in the race.I would Not have backed the Favorite in this race anyway.
<br>I did select the Favorite in the 2:30 race,because in my opinion that was going to be the Winner of the race.
If I had have selected a 20/1 runner,and the horse Won.
I am sure you would find some fault with my selection process.
Remember,You asked me to select the Winner of these 2 races,which I did.
And My 3 Races system had two 3/1 winners in the sequence,these are hardly odds on shots.<br>4 points UP out of 4 meetings,not bad.
Outlay £14.00 or 14 points,depends how much you stake.4 points up.
Who said I was Loseing,Only Yourself.
<br>Sorry I bore you.Are you afraid of the competition.
Keep checking my 3 Races Results Post.
I thought my comment about the Goldfish was great.<br>"Boasting Again",ah well.
Winalot.
