Forum Replies Created
-
Posts
-
I think its hard not to fancy Gilgamboa. Best horse in the race, came a decent third in the John Durkan, I believe the horse is unexposed at a rating of 150, and Jack Kennedy is taking 5 pounds off that. Kennedy is riding so well that he should nearly be giving 5 lbs rather than receiving it!
In relation to maybe a second pick I might put a small net e/w on Urano. He loves heavy ground as his run in Listowel showed, while he was far from disgraced in the Hennessey at Newbury despite a few awful jumping errors because he found it hard to go at the pace of fungal bay and latterly smad place. Today’s race won’t be as quickly run so I expect him to go close tooIf the whip rules were to be taken seriously then Cue Card should be disqualified. One jockey broke the rules whereas one jockey kept the rules. Maybe if Brennan had kept the rules then Cue Card wouldn’t have got up. But under the current system he gets rewarded for breaking the rules by winning the race by a nose. The current system is like giving a footballer a red card for a foul but not giving the a free kick to the person fouled
I don’t believe TOP Notch is capable at that Level. He has been unable to beat Irving and Identity Thief, neither of whom are champion hurdle class. And TN got within a nose of Peace and Co in the triumph so I can’t honestly see Peace and Co competing in a champion hurdle, certainly not this year’s. I wouldn’t mind if I was wrong but I don’t think the form suggests that either Top notch or peace and Co could feature at the business end of the champion hurdle
Well lads after today it looks like Mullins will have the first three again. He has at least 5 horses who could have got closer to Faugheen than the New One did. And the New One is by far the best of the British two mile division which is a sad state of affairs.
My Champion hurdle prediction is a very tight race between Faugheen, Nichols Canyon and Arctic Fire (who possibly might run in World Hurdle or Aintree hurdle instead)Don Cossack was on the receiving end of an awful ride by Bryan Cooper who looked incredibly nervous before the race.
Yes Clive I don’t believe it is unrealistic to suggest that WB improved to 5 pounds better than he ever ran before over hurdles, the horse is improving all the time, he is still just a six year old with limited exposure over hurdles so i dont believe its that controversial to suggest that WB ran to a rating 5 lb higher than ever before, after all he did come a close third in a grade one, 158 doesn’t seem ridiculous. And the form between top notch and Irving from haydock to Newcastle, coupled with the view that WB was on a lazy day renders the form of the fighting fifth pretty insignificant.
His subsequent run was poor, there is no denying that, but running in that race was an afterthought. WB is a very quirky and inconsistent horse, on a good day which by all accounts he was on in the morgiana he can put it up to most horses, on a bad day he can be pretty awful. Newcastle was also his 14th run without any significant couple of months rest. I’m no handicapper and I believe we can get too caught up in ratings but if I were to give ratings for the morgiana alone in terms of what they ran to I would rate NC at 163, faugheen at 162 and WB at 158. It’s actually ridiculous that Top Notch is only rated two pounds below Nichols Canyon as we speak and that peace and co is only one pound below him. If those three horses were running in a handicap with NC giving peace and co a pound and top notch two pounds, NC would destroy them. I know British and Irish ratings can be slightly different but that seems a nonsense to me.
Nichols Canyon is outstanding. Last season he won 4 grade ones out of the 6 he participated in. Of the two he didn’t win one was an unseated rider and the other was a terrible tactical ride by dropping him in. This season he wins the morgiana. NC is an outstanding horse and it took an outstanding horse to beat an unfit faugheen who hung left and who was ridden off the pace, yet with all those things against faugheen he only lost by half a length closing all the time. In relation to Wicklow brave, your right Clive he has done nothing before the morgiana, of course, other than win the county hurdle by 8 lengths, come 4th in the Queen Alexandra stakes in Royal Ascot, come second in the Ebor at York by 1.5 lengths, come 3rd in the Irish St Ledger, and come third in the Group 2 long distance cup in Ascot by two lengths, many would argue however that this certainly amounts to more than “done nothing”.
Clive by overrated I mean people still believe the horse is capable of winning a good grade one race. Last season he won 4 out of five races, beating some very average horses by only a length or two. The race he didn’t win was the champion hurdle where he was beaten easily by 4 top class horses. There is no denying that the new one is a good horse but no more than a consistent grade two winner. He prepared for the champion hurdle by winning a couple of grade twos and a class two race. Faugheen and hurricane fly prepared by winning grade one races. Yet people were still stupid enough to believe that the new one would suddenly get another gear from somewhere. In relation to your nonsense about faugheen being overrated he won the champion hurdle eased down, he destroyed the Christmas hurdle field. Soundly beat arctic fire again in punchestoen, and in his one defeat he was only back from a break, ridden off the pace and was closing all the way to the line to within half a length of another outstanding grade one horse in Nichols Canyon.
If old guard can come second in this race it doesn’t say a whole lot for the rest British hurdlers. A decent horse but beating Sempre Medici by one length is not enough form to warrant a place in the champion hurdle. The New One has already proven time and again the he is overrated. I expect faugheen to win on the bridle by as many lengths as Ruby wants to
Take Davy Russell’s advice lads and catch up on Coronation Street while this race is on
McCoy was dangerous to a horse when it came down to a close finish at the last two fences. He threw horses at fences and fell or made a blunder quite often. Johnson rarely does, he always gives the horse the best chance of winning in a safe way. It’s all about the horse, and the jockeys reputation. I don’t believe McCoy was any better than other top jockeys, I just believe he had better contacts and thus better horses to ride
I actually like the ATR graphics its just the camera work. The problem with racing uk is they spend ages reviewing a race instead of looking to the next race. They replay finishes 7/8 times. But anyway camerawork is awful on ATR particularly in Ireland
