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The last time a favorite won this race was in 2004 when Barry Cash rode Brave Inca to victory at 7/2. Along with the news that Jezki is going straight to the festival I’ll happily pick a horse with bigger odds than the current favourite.
Also looking back at the recent past runnings of this race a lot of the time the winners go on to underperform in their careers, for this reason it might be worth siding with a horse that can run a ‘big race’ on the day that isn’t necesserily going to go on and be a world beater (i.e even though Jezki/Un Atout are clearly very talented it doesn’t mean that this is a race they can win even if they do go on to have the most successful careers out of all the runners).
Just looking at the top few runners I like River Maigue even though Geraghty will probably be on Jezki. My Tent or Yours is interesting too.
Good outline BH that favorites have a poor record in this, When i usually have a look at the Supreme i tend to go with previous Champion Bumper runners so this would bring forward the likes of
Jezki
Pique Sous
The New OneThese could be strong contenders come March, but with The New One likely Neptune bound Jezki could actually overturn the fav voodoo hopefully
F.A.O Rich
Only my opinion
Speed Ratings
Melodic Rendezvous : 127
River Maigue : 125
New Years Eve : 123
My Tent Or Yours : 122
Don Cossack : 116
Waaheb : 116
Un Atout : 115These are based on Soft to Heavy ground, obviously quicker once the ground dries
SUPREME NOVICES HURDLE
DON COSSACK
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Gordon Elliot’s six year old was very useful around the National Hunt Flat circuit notching up three of his four runs on the level which included the Grade 2 Future Champions Pro/Am at Navan when beating Rory O’Moore and there was a lot of gossip going around Ireland that he was a very useful type who would go on to this years festival as a live contender.
His hurdling debut came at Navan when beating Sizing Gold of Henry De Bromheads who had already commanded a good mark behind the likes of multiple winner Seafood. That form was
franked when Sizing Gold was seen going on to win at Leopardstown just before the new year in good style, he then went on to Navan once more a course he had already won at, but was brushed aside in my opinion by a very nice french import of Willie Mullins in Pont Alexandre when falling at the last when comfortably beaten.
Apart from this entry he has also been entered on the second day of the festival in the Neptune Investment, In all honesty the ground came up against him at Navan and will be more effective on faster ground, so should not be dismissed lightly if he manages to get a good prep run prior to the race and not going straight to the festival.
Verdict : 6/10
FORGOTTEN VOICE
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Trained by Jeremy Noseda on the level the eight year old by Danehill Dancer has diverted to hurdling in good style winning both Novice starts to date. Trained by Berkshire based trainer Nicky Henderson who is attempting to land the race for the second time since 1992.
His debut run came at Bangor when winning well by five lengths which looked promising and he had to build on this ability that saw him win on the flat in the Royal Hunt Cup back in 2009. He showed once more he had potential when ridden once more by Tony McCoy to win at Market Rasen, he beat a very moderate bunch that day when a 1/6fav and he will have to show that he has come on once more,
he will head to Kempton on the 12th January with a stop on the way next month with an entry in the Grade 3 Betfair Hurdle at Newbury on Feb 8th, It looks like this race is not on the trainers mind now going handicapping instead of the Novice route, but should be keep in your tracker if he turns up at Prestbury Park in one of the Handicap contests.
Verdict : 6/10
MELODIC RENDEZVOUS
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Has a double entry at the festival which includes not only this contest but the Neptune Novices on day two. He has been improving nicely through the Novice ranks last and this season, and was also useful on the level when second to Cheltenham and Irish Champion Bumper winner of Willie Mulliins in Champagne Fever.
Already a winner at Prestbury Park in mid December when beating Royal Boy in a close finish in heavy conditions and the way he won showed me that the bigger money was on an agenda.
He notched up his first Grade 1 win this year when landing the Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown when beating Pendra and once more Royal Boy in comfortable fashion.
It will be interesting to see what route he takes, this or the Neptune, personally he will come on again what ever route his takes and showed me he had a nice turn of foot away from his hurdles, if he turns up here he will be a serious contender.
Verdict : 7/10
MY TENT OR YOURS
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Another entry from the Nicky Henderson stables, He had three good runs on the level with the highlight being when finishing behind The New One in the Grade 2 Aintree Champion Bumper in 2012, he diverted to novice hurdling and showed the winning method on his debut at Ascot, beating a useful type of Jonjo O’Neils in Taquin Du Seuil, that form was franked with the latter going on to win twice since landing the Grade 2 Winter Novices Hurdle at Sandown and won again just before the new year when winning the Grade 1 Challow Novices Hurdle at Newbury.
The ground looked to of taken it’s toll when he could not manage to pick up in the closing stages in an introductory hurdle at Newbury just before the new year when beaten by his
stablemate Chatterbox by four and a half lengths. My concerns here are that even though he is favorite for the forth coming Betfair Hurdle will he be good enough to land a race of this magnitude for a trainer that has not managed to win this race for 20 years.
Verdict : 7/10
PIQUE SOUS
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One of two entries for the County Carlow trainer, his form is not as illustrious as most in this race and still has to show real contention at the top level. Last year we saw him run third in a thrilling finish in the Cheltenham Champion Bumper finishing just a length and a half behind the eventual winner Champagne Fever.
He looked all over the winner coming with a furlong to run but the hill as it has in the past to many saw him out and could not get to the front two in what I described as a gallant effort. He actually made me feel that if he returned the following year to run in this event he would
have to go down in the notebook as a big shout. I am surprised they have not been more vigorous on him with only two maiden hurdle runs behind him and looking around that sphere it might be a possibility that he will not take his chance in this.
I have always thought that the previous years Champion Bumper has usually given a good guideline to the winner of this race which Cinders and Ashes showed in 2012.
Verdict : 5/10
RIVER MAIGUE
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Probably out of all the entries from Nicky Henderson River Maigue looks the likely one to really make an impact. Starting his career around the p2p circuit when joining Nicky Henderson in the winter months of 2011.
It took two attempts to get him off the mark on the level when winning at Ayr and he looked a completely different animal on fast ground. He was very well thought of and subsequently placed in a Grade 2 Novice Hurdle on his hurdling debut when competing in the Sharp Novices Hurdle here at Prestbury Park.
He finished behind a useful Nicholl’s entry that day in Dodging Bullets and again I felt the ground was the concern coming up soft side of good. He then proved me wrong and went on to win on his next encounter at Kempton when beating New Years Eve by seven lengths
on what I felt in ground that would not suit him, he seemed to bounce off the bottomless ground that day, maybe i have got him all wrong and would prefer bottomless ground, his sire preferred more good to soft ground and has a ground pedigree through soft conditions, so this would put me off if the ground came up good on the day, lets see how he fairs on Feb 8th in the Betfair Hurdle.
Verdict : 8/10
WAAHEB
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My concern straight away is the statistics of trainer Dermot Weld at the meeting, over the past five seasons he is 0-13 which does not give you confidence in backing against the grain once more. Waaheb on the other hand could be something different, owned by JP Mac and with rumors escalating that he will soon own Jezki who is also entered in this it is going to be interesting to see where his interest lies the most.
He was beaten by Jezki this year in the Future Champions Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown by a very wide six lengths, and the winner never broke sweat that day. It is going to be a very big ask to take on the star from the Jessica Harrington stable and reverse the form.
But I would not dismiss him lightly, I cannot see him reversing the form with Jezki but chasing the likely Supreme winner home, he is a big price at 16/1 with most firms and if he can build on his Leopardstown run he should be a good each way bet overall.
Verdict : 7/10
JEZKI
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All I can say is a definite star on paper but will he flop when Cheltenham arrives. Jessica Harrington certainly has a real favorites chance of winning this in 2013. Jezki coming into this is the best form from Britain or Ireland has to offer this time around.
Since finishing eighth in the Cheltenham Bumper last year to Champagne Fever he has taken to hurdling off a ducks back, after winning on debut at Naas he was put straight into the big time when not disappointing landing the Grade 3 Fishery Lane Hurdle at Naas.
The upgrade did not stop there and came out and put an easy win over Champagne Fever in the Grade 1 Royal Bond Novice Hurdle, he was given a slight test that day when staying on under pressure to land the spoils. Even though he was given a test he was always holding the runner up, so he had improved and overturned his defeat here in the Bumper which was encouraging.
Finally he took the scalp of probably one of his biggest adversaries in this in Waaheb, and if his win over Champagne Fever was impressive this win was even better when he ran out a six length winner on the bridle.
He deserves to be as short for this and he will be definitely be on my dutch list for this.
Verdict : 9/10
JEZKI
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RIVER MAIGUE
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14th January 2012
WOLVERHAMPTON 15.25
Trainer
John Gosden
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Robert Havlin
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HEPWORTH
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WOLVERHAMPTON 16.05
Trainer
John Quinn
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Michael O’Connell
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NANT SAESON
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WOLVERHAMPTON 15.05
Trainer
Sir Mark Prescott
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Luke Morris
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NIEGE D’ANTAN
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10th January 2013
WOLVERHAMPTON 13.35
Trainer
Ruth Carr
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Gemma Tutty
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HAB REEH
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10th January 2012
LINGFIELD 12.55
Trainer
Roger Teal
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Jockey
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JOHNNY SPLASH
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17.25
JOCKEY
DAVID BERGIN
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TRAINER
DAVID O’MEARA
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ROSIE’S LADY
: 3pt Win @ 4/6
Wolverhampton
15.25
TRAINER
Marco Botti
: One Entry (
GROOVE ON
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2012-13
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JOCKEY
Adam Kirby
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2012-13
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GROOVE ON
: 1pt ew @ 5/1
