[TheBluesBrother]

I got bored so I ran my form macro on the King George V1, and looked at all the races that were run during 2009, (top 3 races) for each horse.
No surprises here, Kauto Star came out top with the best class rating of 179 (4lb clear).

3.05 Kempton

Kauto Star 13-Mar-09 Chl 27GS C1ChG1 270K 179
Imperial Commander 21-Nov-09 Hay 24Sft C1ChG1 112K 175
Kauto Star 21-Nov-09 Hay 24Sft C1ChG1 112K 175
Imperial Commander 12-Mar-09 Chl 21GS C1ChG1 125K 164
Deep Purple 10-Dec-09 Hun 21GS C1ChG2 40K 162
Madison Du Berlais 07-Feb-09 Kem 24GS C1ChG2 30K 161
Master Medic 21-Nov-09 Asc 17Gd C2HcCh 34K 159
Barbers Shop 28-Nov-09 Nby 27GS C1HcChG3 114K 159
Albertas Run 21-Nov-09 Asc 19Gd C1ChG2 31K 156
Nacarat 03-Apr-09 Ain 20Gd C1ChG1 114K 156
Our Vic 06-Dec-09 War 25Sft C2Ch 25K 156
Madison Du Berlais 02-Apr-09 Ain 25Gd C1ChG2 91K 155
Tartak 07-Feb-09 Kem 21GS C2Ch 18K 155
Barbers Shop 13-Mar-09 Chl 27GS C1ChG1 270K 153
Madison Du Berlais 21-Nov-09 Hay 24Sft C1ChG1 112K 153
Our Vic 14-Nov-09 Chl 21Sft C1HcChG3 85K 152
Albertas Run 10-Dec-09 Hun 21GS C1ChG2 40K 152
Tartak 10-Dec-09 Hun 21GS C1ChG2 40K 149
Tartak 10-Mar-09 Chl 16GS C1ChG1 96K 147
Nacarat 21-Feb-09 Kem 24Gd C1HcChG3 57K 145
Albertas Run 13-Mar-09 Chl 27GS C1ChG1 270K 139
Ollie Magern 21-Feb-09 Kem 24Gd C1HcChG3 57K 137
Deep Purple 02-Apr-09 Ain 20Gd C1NvChG2 45K 137
Master Medic 31-Oct-09 Asc 17Gd C1HcChL 17K 135
Nacarat 24-Jan-09 Don 19Sft C2HcCh 16K 134
Our Vic 02-Apr-09 Ain 25Gd C1ChG2 91K 134
Deep Purple 31-Oct-09 Wet 25Gd C1ChG2 57K 131
Ollie Magern 31-Oct-09 Wet 25Gd C1ChG2 57K 124
Racing Demon 10-Dec-09 Hun 21GS C1ChG2 40K 118
Ollie Magern 23-Apr-09 Per 24Gd C2Ch 21K 117
Sandymac 09-Dec-09 Lei 24Gd C3HcCh 6K 106
Sandymac 01-May-09 Fon 22Gd C4HcCh 5K 99
Sandymac 07-Nov-09 Wcn 21GS C4HcCh 5K 98

I have never seen a horse destroy a field like Kauto Star just did.
On the ratings I had him at 179, when the race is assesed, you have to be looking at 190; forget Arkle.

[TheBluesBrother]

This is off subject, but I have a program that produces true odds for football games just in case anybody is interested, it takes approx 1 minute to produce the odds.
It uses an algorithm more accurate than what the bookies use, so If you need to compare bookies prices to see if any mistakes have been made, refer against the Excel sheet.

[code:1oxa3v1k]http://tinyurl.com/ydgaf3g[/code:1oxa3v1k]

[TheBluesBrother]

I wanted to look at the 2.15 at Kempton today because a couple of horses off my handicap list were running, notably the favourite "Thunderstruck" and "The Grey One".
When I ran the form macro up popped a class 4 horse in "Prince Of Thebes" who was 14/1.
Looking at the horses form he hasn’t won over 8 furlongs but that isn’t a problem as they never seem to go fast around Kempton, they just sprint from the final bend.

Looking at this race, I would be surprised if the selection for the race "Prince Of Thebes" doesn’t make the frame.

2.15 Kempton 10f (C5)

Prince Of Thebes 11-Apr-09 Kem 8St C4Hc 4K 88 125.71
Thunderstruck 25-Nov-09 Kem 10St C5Hc 2K 79 109.03
Prince Of Thebes 07-May-09 Wdr 8GF C4Hc 5K 78 111.43
Prince Of Thebes 24-Jun-09 Kem 8St C4Hc 4K 78 110.71
Dream Of Fortune 07-Jan-09 Wol 9St C4Hc 4K 76 110.14
The Grey One 04-Dec-09 Wol 9St C6Hc 2K 74 112.12
Hallingdal 15-Jun-09 Wdr 8GF C5Hc 3K 73 100.69
Thunderstruck 03-Nov-09 Kem 10St C6Hc 2K 71 98.61
Cossack Prince 18-Feb-09 Kem 12St C6Cl 2K 71 101.43
Hallingdal 11-Nov-09 Kem 10St C3 7K 70 97.22
Hallingdal 28-Sep-09 Wol 9St C4Hc 5K 70 97.22
Dream Of Fortune 07-Feb-09 Wol 9St C4Hc 4K 70 101.45
Hurakan 09-Dec-09 Kem 10St C4Hc 4K 69 92.00
Cossack Prince 25-May-09 Goo 12GF C5Hc 3K 69 97.86
Dream Of Fortune 16-Dec-09 Lin 10St C6Cl 1K 69 99.28
Thunderstruck 14-Nov-09 Wol 9St C6Hc 2K 68 94.44
The Grey One 17-Aug-09 Wol 9St C6Hc 2K 67 101.52
The Grey One 10-Dec-09 Kem 10St C5Hc 2K 67 100.76
Trifti 18-Mar-09 Lin 10St C5Hc 2K 67 89.86
Cossack Prince 17-Jan-09 Lin 12St C5Hc 2K 65 92.86
Red Hot Desert 07-Dec-09 Lin 12St C53yHc 2K 65 95.59
Hurakan 21-Oct-09 Kem 10St C6Cl 2K 65 86.00
Trifti 01-Nov-09 Lin 10St C5Hc 2K 60 81.08
Trifti 04-Feb-09 Lin 10St C5Hc 2K 59 79.05
Oxford City 26-Oct-09 Leo 8Y Hc 5K 57 83.82
Hurakan 13-Nov-09 Lin 8St C5Hc 2K 57 75.33
Oxford City 06-Aug-09 Leo 10Gd/Y Hc 7K 50 73.53
Red Hot Desert 13-Nov-09 Lin 12St C5Md 2K 49 71.32
Red Hot Desert 22-Oct-09 Kem 11St C5Md 2K 48 69.85
Oxford City 07-Oct-09 Nav 10Gd/Y Hc 7K 47 68.38
Taaresh 01-Nov-09 Lin 13St C4Hc 5K 37 49.33

The slow run race I expected didn’t materialise and it was fast by 0.37s outside standard.

[TheBluesBrother]

I was looking at my handicap list and I saw "Bentley" +15 was entered in the 5.00 Wolverhampton today. The handicapper had put up Bentley +12 for the run so he was still +3lb well in. Will he win today, the answer is no, I will be surprised if he manges to get in the frame. This race is a C6, and it allways amazes me when two C4 horses manage to get into a Class 6 race. This was picked up when I ran my form macro, which takes the best 3 results of each horse, produces a class figure and an offical BHA percentage rating to point out when a horse is well handicapped to win.

The two C4 horses running in this race are "First Order" 16/1 and "Almaty Express" 14/1 and with Ann Storkell 5lb allowance "First Order" would be the selection.

5.00 Wolverhampton 6f (C6)

First Order 13-Jun-09 San 5Gd C4Hc 5K 85 134.13
Almaty Express 26-Mar-09 Wol 5St C4Hc 5K 82 134.43
First Order 06-Jan-09 Sth 5St/Slw C4Hc 4K 82 129.37
First Order 15-May-09 Nmk 5GF C4Hc 5K 81 127.78
Almaty Express 24-Apr-09 Wol 5St C4Hc 5K 78 127.05
Almaty Express 23-Feb-09 Wol 5St C5Hc 2K 69 113.11
Yanza 02-Apr-09 Kem 5St C5Md 2K 67 109.84
Music Box Express 08-Jun-09 Fol 5GF C6Hc 2K 66 111.86
Music Box Express 11-Feb-09 Kem 6St C5Hc 2K 64 108.47
Irish Music 03-Nov-09 Kem 5St C5Hc 2K 64 102.42
Yanza 16-Oct-09 Wol 6St C6Hc 2K 64 104.10
Bentley 05-Dec-09 Wol 6St C6Sl 2K 63 105.00
Charlie Delta 16-Dec-09 Lin 6St C6Hc 1K 62 112.73
Radiator Rooney 16-Dec-09 Lin 6St C6Hc 1K 62 112.73
El Potro 13-Apr-09 War 6GF C5Hc 2K 62 140.91
Commander Wish 29-Aug-09 Bev 5GF C1L 23K 62 128.13
Yanza 29-Oct-09 Wol 6St C6Hc 2K 60 97.54
Music Box Express 19-Mar-09 Sth 5St C6Hc 2K 59 100.00
Charlie Delta 06-Dec-09 Lin 5St C6Hc 2K 59 106.36
Radiator Rooney 06-Dec-09 Lin 5St C6Hc 2K 59 106.36
Commander Wish 11-Sep-09 San 5GF C4Hc 4K 57 117.71
Charlie Delta 18-May-09 Wol 6St C6Hc 2K 56 100.91
Radiator Rooney 18-May-09 Wol 6St C6Hc 2K 56 100.91
Irish Music 26-Nov-09 Kem 6St C6Md 2K 55 88.71
Irish Music 27-Oct-09 Yar 5Gd C6Hc 2K 55 87.90
Colombard 26-Oct-09 Lin 6St C6Hc 1K 54 105.88
Colombard 07-Aug-09 Lin 6St C6Hc 2K 53 103.92
Colombard 27-Nov-09 Wol 6St C6Hc 2K 53 102.94
Commander Wish 08-Jun-09 Pon 5Gd C5Hc 3K 52 108.33
El Potro 28-Apr-09 Not 5GS C6Hc 2K 43 96.59
Bentley 06-Jun-09 Ncs 7Gd C5Hc 3K 42 70.00
Bentley 10-Oct-09 Wol 7St C7Hc 2K 38 63.33
El Potro 04-Nov-09 Not 5Sft C6Hc 2K 19 43.18
Misterisland 11-Dec-09 Wol 5St C6Md 2K 18 38.04
Misterisland 16-Nov-09 Wol 9St C6Hc 2K 13 27.17
Misterisland 02-Dec-09 Kem 7St C6 2K 9 18.48

Bentley (2nd fav) as stated didn’t get in the frame, and "First Order" ran well to finish 2nd at 12-1, was in front towards the line before being caught by Charlie Delta. When I come to assess this race I will no doubt find that Charlie Delta has improved on his current form, and he needs to be looked at when he next runs.

[TheBluesBrother]

Here we are again, in my quest to win the Getin ATR tipping contest.

6.50 Wolverhamton.

Nothing special here, so I am going to go with the favourite "Katy’s Secret" (10pts)

7.20 Wolverhampton.

Even out of trap 9, the favourite "Barreq" (10pts) looks to be a steering job.

7.50 Wolverhampton 7f (C4)

Gallantry 26-Jun-09 Chs 7GF C4Hc 5K 87 111.54
Autumn Blades 11-Mar-09 Sth 7St C5Hc 2K 86 111.04
Tourist 11-Apr-09 Kem 8St C4Hc 4K 85 103.66
Gallantry 26-Feb-09 Wol 9St C4Hc 4K 84 107.69
Desert Dreamer 02-Jul-09 Eps 7GF C4Hc 4K 84 109.09
Tourist 28-Nov-09 Wol 6St C5Hc 3K 84 101.83
Arteus 03-Dec-09 Wol 7St C4Hc 5K 83 101.22
Gallantry 04-Apr-09 Lin 7St C3Hc 7K 83 106.41
Desert Dreamer 26-Aug-09 War 7Gd C4Hc 4K 83 107.79
Desert Dreamer 26-Jun-09 Chs 7GF C4Hc 5K 83 107.79
Tourist 31-Oct-09 Wol 7St C5Hc 3K 83 100.61
Arteus 11-Nov-09 Kem 7St C5Hc 2K 81 98.17
Miranda´s Girl 06-Jul-09 Ros 7Hy Hc 12K 80 94.12
Ravi River 09-Oct-09 Lin 7St/Slw C4Hc 6K 80 103.90
Autumn Blades 21-Apr-09 Sth 7St C4Hc 4K 80 103.25
Brierty 21-Nov-09 Kem 6St C4Hc 4K 80 103.25
Ishiadancer 23-Oct-09 Ayr 7Gd C5Hc 2K 80 106.00
Miranda´s Girl 16-Sep-09 Lis 7Y Hc 15K 79 92.35
Brierty 24-Jul-09 Yor 5Gd C43yHc 5K 79 101.95
Chief Exec 07-Jul-09 Wol 7St C6Hc 2K 79 106.08
Chief Exec 15-Jul-09 Kem 7St C6Hc 2K 78 105.41
Autumn Blades 17-Sep-09 Wol 7St C5Cl 2K 78 100.65
Brierty 01-Jun-09 Thi 7Fm C43yHc 5K 78 100.65
Arteus 08-May-09 Lin 7GF C53yMd 2K 76 92.68
Chief Exec 18-Sep-09 Wol 7St C4Hc 5K 76 102.70
Miranda´s Girl 16-Oct-09 Dun 7St Hc 13K 76 88.82
Ravi River 11-Aug-09 Lin 6St C4Hc 5K 75 96.75
Istiqdaam 05-Dec-09 Wol 7St C5Hc 3K 75 100.68
Ravi River 09-Jan-09 Wol 7St C4Hc 5K 74 96.10
Ishiadancer 27-Nov-09 Wol 7St C3Hc 7K 74 98.67
Istiqdaam 21-Nov-09 Kem 7St C6Hc 1K 74 99.32
Istiqdaam 11-Dec-09 Wol 7St C6Hc 2K 73 97.97
Ishiadancer 26-Aug-09 Ayr 7Sft C6Hc 2K 71 94.67

I like the the look of "Miranda´s Girl" (10pts) in this race, this has to be the lowest grade race she has been entered in.

8.20 Wolverhampton 9f (C7)

Ardent Prince 04-Feb-09 Lin 7St C6Hc 2K 65 134.38
Shake On It 04-Feb-09 Lin 8St C5Hc 2K 64 127.00
Shake On It 11-Feb-09 Lin 8St C5Hc 2K 61 121.00
Ardent Prince 23-Jan-09 Wol 7St C6Hc 1K 58 120.83
Shake On It 18-Jul-09 Lin 8St C6Cl 2K 57 113.00
Ejeed 29-Nov-09 Kem 8St C1L 22K 57 115.31
Libre 12-Sep-09 Wol 9St C6Hc 2K 57 117.71
Libre 16-Jun-09 Yar 7Gd C6Hc 2K 57 117.71
Ardent Prince 19-Jan-09 Wol 9St C6Hc 1K 56 115.63
Russian Angel 20-Nov-09 Wol 9St C7Hc 2K 54 112.50
Libre 20-Nov-09 Wol 9St C7Hc 2K 53 110.42
Ejeed 02-Dec-09 Kem 8St C7Hc 2K 50 102.04
Ejeed 13-Jun-09 Lin 6GF C6Hc 2K 50 102.04
Russian Angel 25-Jul-09 Sal 8GF C5Hc 3K 50 104.17
Lambrini Lace 26-Aug-09 Ayr 7Sft C6Hc 2K 49 98.00
Russian Angel 10-Jul-09 Chp 8GF C5Hc 3K 47 97.92
Lambrini Lace 07-Sep-09 Ncs 6GS C6Hc 2K 46 91.00
Western Art 16-Sep-09 Bev 8GF C6 1K 46 91.00
Bourn Fair 16-Oct-09 Wol 9St/Fs C6 2K 42 84.00
Desert Fairy 16-Oct-09 Wol 9St/Fs C6 2K 42 84.00
Tallest Peak 18-Nov-09 Lin 8St C6Hc 1K 39 78.57
Lambrini Lace 23-Oct-09 Ayr 6Gd C6Hc 1K 38 76.00
Bourn Fair 12-Nov-09 Sth 12St C6Hc 2K 38 75.00
Desert Fairy 12-Nov-09 Sth 12St C6Hc 2K 38 75.00
Anduril 07-Jan-09 Wol 9St C6Hc 2K 36 75.00
Anduril 19-Jan-09 Wol 9St C6Hc 1K 36 73.96
Bourn Fair 06-Dec-09 Lin 12St C7Hc 2K 31 62.00
Desert Fairy 06-Dec-09 Lin 12St C7Hc 2K 31 62.00
Tallest Peak 30-Nov-09 Wol 9St C6Hc 2K 27 54.08
Western Art 18-Jun-09 Rip 6GS C5Cl 3K 17 34.00
Anduril 01-Jan-09 Sth 8St/Slw C6Hc 2K 15 31.25
Kirkie 8-10 14-Feb-09 Wol 9St C6Hc 1K 15 30.21
Western Art 02-Jun-09 Sth 7St C6Cl 2K 13 25.00

"Shake On It" (10pts) is very well handicapped on his best form.

8.50 Wolverhampton 10f (C6)

Dragon Slayer 28-Oct-09 Not 10Gd C6Hc 1K 74 113.08
Eastern Gift 06-Aug-09 Bri 10Fm C5Hc 3K 73 113.28
Eastern Gift 31-Aug-09 Eps 9Gd C4Hc 5K 72 112.50
Eastern Gift 20-Aug-09 Eps 9GF C5Hc 3K 72 112.50
West Kirk 20-Oct-09 Yar 8GF C6Cl 2K 66 103.13
Dragon Slayer 29-Jul-09 San 10Gd C5Hc 3K 66 100.77
Dragon Slayer 08-May-09 Not 10Fm C5Hc 3K 65 99.23
Rambling Dancer 16-Jan-09 Wol 9St C6Hc 2K 62 99.19
Bestowed 13-Nov-09 Wol 9St C6 1K 61 110.91
Castle Myth 16-Nov-09 Wol 9St C6Hc 2K 61 100.83
Rambling Dancer 27-Nov-09 Dun 8St Hc 4K 59 94.35
Rambling Dancer 25-Sep-09 Dun 8St Hc 4K 59 94.35
Make Amends 16-Aug-09 Bat 8GF C5Hc 2K 59 100.86
Sally Bawn 14-Nov-09 Wol 9St C5Hc 3K 58 93.55
Make Amends 21-Aug-09 Sal 8Gd C5Hc 3K 58 99.14
Make Amends 09-Jul-09 Fol 10GF C5Hc 3K 58 99.14
Bestowed 14-Dec-09 Wol 9St C6Hc 2K 58 104.55
Castle Myth 29-Oct-09 Wol 9St C6Hc 2K 55 91.67
Sally Bawn 16-Oct-09 Dun 11St Hc 4K 54 87.10
Castle Myth 24-Nov-09 Sth 8St C6Hc 1K 54 90.00
West Kirk 19-Nov-09 Kem 8St C53yMd 2K 53 82.81
Bestowed 21-Sep-09 Lei 10GF C6Cl 1K 51 92.73
West Kirk 31-Jan-09 Lin 7St C5Md 2K 50 77.34
Corrib 14-Jul-09 Bri 10GF C6Hc 2K 49 105.43
Sally Bawn 20-Sep-09 Bal 9Y/Sft Hc 5K 48 77.42
Corrib 01-Jul-09 Chp 12GF C6Hc 2K 44 95.65
Corrib 11-Dec-09 Wol 9St C6Hc 2K 44 94.57
Pachakutek 27-Apr-09 Wdr 10GS C53yMd 2K 41 63.08
Flighty Fellow 28-Nov-09 Wol 9St/Fs C6Sl 2K 39 65.00
Pachakutek 18-Apr-09 Nby 8Sft C43yMd 4K 24 36.15

"West Kirk" (50pts) is making his handicap debut and is
on a good mark, will not have to improve much to win this.

9.20 Wolverhampton 9f (C4)

Be A Devil 06-Dec-09 Lin 7St C52yHc 3K 76 102.03
Be A Devil 16-Oct-09 Wol 7St/Fs C52yHc 2K 74 99.32
New Christmas 01-Dec-09 Lin 8St C52yHc 2K 72 94.08
Be A Devil 02-Dec-09 Kem 7St C42yHc 3K 71 95.27
Epic 16-Sep-09 Bev 7GF C62yMdAc 2K 70 92.67
New Christmas 30-Oct-09 Wol 7St C62yMd 2K 69 90.13
Epic 03-Oct-09 Wol 9St C42yHc 5K 68 90.00
Fine Lace 09-Oct-09 Wol 9St C62yHc 2K 62 100.00
Ant Music 15-May-09 Nby 6Gd C42yMd 4K 56 83.58
Fine Lace 21-Nov-09 Kem 10St C62yCl 2K 55 87.90
Fine Lace 15-Oct-09 Not 8Sft C52yHc 2K 53 85.48
Epic 23-Oct-09 Wol 9St C42yHc 4K 52 69.33
New Christmas 31-Jul-09 Nmk 6Gd C42yMd 5K 52 67.76
Ant Music 16-Jun-09 Thi 7GF C52yMd 4K 50 74.63
Ant Music 10-Jul-09 Nmk 7GF C22yHc 12K 37 55.22

"Be A Devil" (10pts) has 3 out of the top 4 ratings, he is the selection.

No good, only one winner at 15/2.

[TheBluesBrother]

Here are my thought on the racing tonight at Wolverhampton as I have another try to win the Getin ATR tipping contest.

6.50 Wolverhampton 7f (C6)
Istiqdaam 9-4 05-Dec-09 Wol 7St C5Hc 3K 74 108.09
Istiqdaam 9-4 21-Nov-09 Kem 7St C6Hc 1K 74 108.09
Diapason 9-2 04-Jul-09 Lei 7Gd C5Md 3K 72 114.29
Just Timmy Marcus 9-3 01-Oct-09 Wol 7St C6Hc 2K 69 107.81
Crystallize 9-1 28-May-09 Yar 7Gd C63yHc 2K 69 111.29
Just Timmy Marcus 9-3 09-Oct-09 Wol 7St C6Hc 2K 68 105.47
Striker Torres 9-2 16-May-09 Don 7GS C43yHc 4K 66 104.76
Crystallize 9-2 18-Jun-09 War 7Gd C5Hc 2K 66 105.65
Just Timmy Marcus 9-3 18-Sep-09 Wol 7St C63yHc 2K 65 100.78
Diapason 9-2 14-Sep-09 Lei 8GF C53yHc 3K 64 101.59
Diapason 9-2 05-Jun-09 Don 7GF C53yMd 4K 64 101.59
Dancing Welcome 8-11 25-Nov-09 Lin 7St C6Hc 1K 63 108.62
Crystallize 9-3 31-Oct-09 Kem 7St C6Hc 1K 62 100.00
Luckydolly 8-13 26-Nov-09 Dun 7St Hc 4K 62 102.50
Valentino Swing 8-10 13-Feb-09 Wol 6St C6Hc 2K 61 107.02
Istiqdaam 9-4 17-Jun-09 Ham 6Gd C5Hc 3K 61 88.97
Dancing Welcome 8-11 29-Nov-09 Kem 7St C6Hc 1K 60 102.59
Valentino Swing 8-10 26-Nov-09 Kem 6St C6Cl 1K 58 101.75
Striker Torres 9-2 29-Jul-09 Red 8GF C43yHc 4K 57 89.68
Striker Torres 9-2 12-Apr-09 Mus 7GF C5Md 2K 57 89.68
Dancing Welcome 8-11 31-Oct-09 Kem 6St C7Hc 2K 56 95.69
Lady Rockfield 9-4 05-Jun-09 Nav 8GF 3y 9K 55 83.85
Valentino Swing 8-10 10-Jan-09 Kem 7St C6Hc 2K 52 91.23
Lady Rockfield 9-4 13-May-09 Naa 8Gd/Y 10K 46 70.00
All Of Me 9-1 08-Sep-09 Dun 7St Hc 3K 42 67.74
Lady Rockfield 9-4 26-Nov-09 Dun 8St 4K 40 60.77
All Of Me 9-1 16-Jul-09 Kln 8Y/Sft Hc 5K 39 62.10
Luckydolly 8-13 06-Feb-09 Wol 7St C43yHc 5K 30 49.17
All Of Me 9-1 24-Jun-09 Naa 6GF Hc 4K 27 42.74

Istiqdaam on all known form should be a good thing in this, but there is an Irish raider that has all the earmarks of a major plot and it is "All Of Me". On any tissue this horse should be 33/1 + and is now trading at 7/1 was 16/1 this morning. Since the horse’s last run there has been a change of trainer, a top jockey has been booked and two years ago won off a mark of 78 (C4). So the selection is "All Of Me" (10pts) as you cannot win this contest tipping favourites.
I was trying an anagram on the owners name to see if I could come up with Barney ****** lol.

7.20 Wolverhampton 7f (C6)
Stanley Goodspeed 9-1 25-Mar-09 Kem 6St C4Hc 4K 80 129.03
Kipchak 9-4 23-Jun-09 Bri 7GF C5Hc 3K 78 120.00
Kipchak 9-4 25-Apr-09 Lei 6GF C4Hc 4K 77 117.69
Kipchak 9-4 13-Apr-09 Red 7Fm C5Hc 2K 76 116.15
Stanley Goodspeed 9-1 01-Oct-09 Wol 7St C6Hc 2K 74 119.35
Stanley Goodspeed 9-1 16-May-09 Don 6GS C4Hc 4K 73 117.74
Monashee Rock 9-4 05-Jul-09 Bri 8Fm C6Hc 2K 72 110.77
Dream Express 8-13 03-Jul-09 Bev 7GF C6Sl 2K 70 116.67
Seldom 9-3 17-Apr-09 Thi 6GF C5Md 4K 69 107.03
Dream Express 8-13 17-Aug-09 Wol 7St C4Hc 5K 68 113.33
Loyal Royal 9-2 11-Nov-09 Kem 6St C6Hc 1K 68 107.14
Fly By Nelly 9-1 09-Jun-09 Sal 7GF C63yHc 3K 66 106.45
Dream Express 8-13 16-Jun-09 Thi 7GF C5Hc 4K 66 109.17
Loyal Royal 9-2 21-Aug-09 Wol 6St C6Hc 2K 65 103.17
Loyal Royal 9-2 27-Feb-09 Wol 7St C6Hc 2K 65 103.17
Seldom 9-3 26-May-09 Red 6GF C53yHc 2K 65 101.56
Fly By Nelly 9-1 31-Oct-09 Kem 7St C6Hc 1K 64 103.23
Fly By Nelly 9-1 08-May-09 Lin 7GF C53yHc 4K 64 102.42
Bollywood Style 8-10 25-Nov-09 Lin 7St C6Hc 1K 62 108.77
Monashee Rock 9-4 16-Nov-09 Wol 7St C6Sl 2K 62 95.38
Scopey 9-0 06-Nov-09 Wol 7St C6Hc 2K 62 100.82
Goodbye Cash 8-12 21-Nov-09 Kem 7St C6Hc 1K 61 103.39
Monashee Rock 9-4 16-Aug-09 Bat 8GF C5Hc 2K 61 93.85
Goodbye Cash 8-12 28-Sep-09 Bri 7GF C6Hc 2K 60 101.69
Goodbye Cash 8-12 31-Oct-09 Kem 7St C6Hc 1K 60 100.85
Spinning Ridge 8-13 28-Nov-09 Wol 7St/Fs C6Hc 2K 59 97.50
Yakama 8-9 12-May-09 Bri 8Fm C6Hc 2K 56 100.00
Scopey 9-0 29-Mar-09 Leo 7GF Hc 6K 56 90.98
Bollywood Style 8-10 01-Dec-09 Lin 6St C6Hc 1K 53 92.98
Yakama 8-9 19-May-09 Not 8Gd C6Hc 2K 53 94.64
Seldom 9-3 30-Apr-09 Red 7GF C53yMd 2K 53 82.03
Bollywood Style 8-10 10-Jan-09 Kem 7St C6Hc 2K 52 91.23
Spinning Ridge 8-13 18-Nov-09 Lin 8St C6Hc 1K 52 86.67
Scopey 9-0 29-May-09 Dro 7Y Hc 4K 52 84.43
Yakama 8-9 27-Feb-09 Lin 8St C6Sl 2K 51 90.18
Spinning Ridge 8-13 01-Nov-09 Lin 8St C6Hc 1K 49 81.67

Close call here between Stanley Goodspeed and Kipchak, so the selection has to be Stanley Goodspeed" (10pts).

7.50 Wolverhampton 9f (C3)
Mister Angry 9-3 07-Jul-09 Wol 7St C52yMdAc 3K 84 98.82
Mister Angry 9-3 15-Jul-09 Cat 7GS C52yNvAc 3K 80 93.53
Mister Angry 9-3 01-Aug-09 Ham 8GS C42yNv 4K 79 92.35
Tukitinyasok 9-0 29-Aug-09 Nmk 7GF C22yHc 12K 77 90.00
Tukitinyasok 9-0 18-Jul-09 Nby 7Sft C32y 7K 73 85.29
Tukitinyasok 9-0 05-Jul-09 Ayr 7Gd C52yMd 2K 73 85.29

The selection is "Mister Angry" (10pts).

8.20 Wolverhampton 9f (C6)
Magners Hill 9-2 27-Feb-09 Dun 12Sl Hc 6K 66 117.86
Stoic Leader 8-12 05-Jul-09 Ayr 7Gd C5Hc 2K 62 124.00
Ten Pole Tudor 9-4 21-Jan-09 Wol 7St C6Hc 2K 62 108.77
Stoic Leader 8-12 29-Jun-09 Mus 8GF C6Hc 2K 60 120.00
Magners Hill 9-2 22-Jan-09 Wol 9St C6Md 2K 60 107.14
Stoic Leader 8-12 13-Apr-09 Red 8Fm C4Hc 4K 59 118.00
Kirstys Lad 8-6 23-May-09 Bev 10Gd C5Hc 2K 59 131.11
Kirstys Lad 8-6 06-Apr-09 Wol 9St C6Hc 1K 57 125.56
Holyfield Warrior 9-3 18-Nov-09 Lin 8St C6Hc 1K 52 91.23
Achromatic 8-13 25-Apr-09 Lei 8GF C53yHc 2K 51 91.82
John Potts 8-9 23-Jan-09 Wol 9St C6Hc 2K 51 103.06
Coolnaharan 9-3 13-Nov-09 Wol 9St C6 1K 50 86.84
Ten Pole Tudor 9-4 09-Jan-09 Wol 9St C6Sl 2K 50 86.84
Turkish Sultan 8-6 20-Nov-09 Wol 9St C7Hc 2K 49 106.52
Chia 9-6 14-Nov-09 Wol 9St C5Hc 3K 49 81.67
Corrib 8-6 14-Jul-09 Bri 10GF C6Hc 2K 49 110.23
Achromatic 8-13 18-Nov-09 Lin 8St C6Hc 1K 48 87.27
Coolnaharan 9-3 04-Dec-09 Wol 9St C6Hc 2K 47 82.46
John Potts 8-9 17-Feb-09 Wol 9St C6Hc 2K 47 95.92
John Potts 8-9 27-Feb-09 Wol 9St C6Hc 2K 47 94.90
Ryker 9-1 05-Jun-09 Don 7GF C53yMd 4K 46 80.70
Turkish Sultan 8-6 09-Jan-09 Lin 10St C6Hc 2K 46 98.91
Turkish Sultan 8-6 11-Mar-09 Kem 8St C7 1K 45 96.74
Ten Pole Tudor 9-4 28-Nov-09 Wol 9St/Fs C6Sl 2K 44 77.19
Corrib 8-6 01-Jul-09 Chp 12GF C6Hc 2K 44 100.00
Ryker 9-1 08-Sep-09 Lin 8St C5Md 2K 42 72.81
Corrib 8-6 13-May-09 Bat 12Fm C6Hc 2K 42 94.32
Kirstys Lad 8-6 25-Sep-09 Wol 9St C6Hc 2K 41 91.11
Coolnaharan 9-3 19-Sep-09 Wol 12St C6Hc 2K 41 71.05
Ryker 9-1 16-May-09 Nby 7GS C43yMd 6K 40 69.30
Magners Hill 9-2 03-Jun-09 Fai 10GF Hc 4K 36 64.29
Northgate Lodge 8-6 03-Sep-09 Red 6GF C5Md 2K 16 35.56

Looks like another possible Irish plot with "Magners Hill" (50pts) who has the best form and is well handicapped.

8.50 Wolverhampton 9f (C6)
Dabbers Ridge 9-6 01-May-09 Mus 7Gd C3Hc 7K 81 136.44
Dabbers Ridge 9-6 28-Mar-09 Don 8GF C2Hc 31K 78 132.20
Dabbers Ridge 9-6 20-Jun-09 Red 7GF C5Cl 2K 74 125.42
King Of Connacht 9-2 17-Aug-09 Wol 9St C6Hc 2K 63 114.55
King Of Connacht 9-2 19-May-09 Yar 10GF C6Hc 2K 62 111.82
King Of Connacht 9-2 10-Aug-09 Wol 9St C6Hc 2K 61 110.91
Grey Command 8-11 25-May-09 Crl 11GF C4Hc 5K 60 119.00
Lady Mickataine 9-4 12-Jun-09 Nav 10GF 7K 58 97.46
Grove View Star 9-3 11-Sep-09 Dro 13Gd/Y Hc 5K 57 100.89
Philmack Dot Com 9-4 28-Nov-09 Wol 7St/Fs C6Hc 2K 57 95.76
Gifted Heir 9-2 17-Aug-09 Yar 8GF C6Hc 2K 56 101.82
Grove View Star 9-3 26-Nov-09 Dun 12St Hc 4K 55 98.21
Gifted Heir 9-2 12-Sep-09 Wol 9St C6Hc 2K 55 100.00
Tabaahi 9-0 21-May-09 Clo 10Hy Hc 5K 53 100.00
Philmack Dot Com 9-4 17-Jan-09 Lin 8St C53yMd 2K 52 87.29
Gifted Heir 9-2 15-Oct-09 Wol 9St C7Hc 2K 51 92.73
Grove View Star 9-3 11-Nov-09 Dun 12St Hc 3K 48 84.82
Grey Command 8-11 17-Sep-09 Pon 10GF C5Hc 3K 48 95.00
Lady Mickataine 9-4 24-Apr-09 Dun 11St 3y 7K 47 79.66
Grey Command 8-11 12-Jun-09 Yor 12GS C4Hc 5K 45 90.00
Stage Dream 8-10 20-Mar-09 Dun 8St Hc 5K 44 89.80
Philmack Dot Com 9-4 29-Oct-09 Lin 7St C6Hc 2K 42 70.34
Tabaahi 9-0 13-Nov-09 Wol 9St C6 1K 42 78.30
Tabaahi 9-0 26-Apr-09 Nav 6Sft Hc 5K 42 78.30
Hi Spec 8-7 30-Nov-09 Wol 9St C6Hc 2K 41 89.13
Hi Spec 8-7 28-Oct-09 Kem 8St C6Hc 1K 40 85.87
Lady Mickataine 9-4 26-Nov-09 Dun 12St Hc 4K 39 65.25
Bobering 8-6 13-Feb-09 Wol 9St C7 1K 39 93.90
Bobering 8-6 22-Jan-09 Wol 9St C7 1K 37 89.02
Bobering 8-6 06-Mar-09 Wol 9St C6Hc 2K 36 86.59
Incy Wincy 8-4 06-Dec-09 Lin 8St C6Hc 2K 33 77.38
Hi Spec 8-7 07-Jan-09 Wol 9St C6Hc 2K 31 67.39
Incy Wincy 8-4 25-Nov-09 Lin 7St C6Cl 1K 31 72.62
Incy Wincy 8-4 14-Feb-09 Wol 9St C63ySl 2K 30 71.43

"King Of Connacht" is the selection (10pts) as this is not Dabbers Ridge trip.

9.20 Wolverhamton 12f (C2)
Nanton 9-7 11-Sep-09 Don 15GF C2Hc 32K 108 111.34
Nanton 9-7 19-Sep-09 Ayr 10Gd C1L 34K 105 108.25
Nanton 9-7 03-Oct-09 Nmk 9GF C2Hc 99K 102 105.15
Sgt Schultz 9-3 10-Jan-09 Lin 10St C2Hc 11K 98 104.84
Alpen Glen 8-6 26-Jun-09 Chs 10GF C3Hc 9K 97 111.49
Laterly 9-1 08-Aug-09 Hay 10Gd C2Hc 40K 96 104.95
Ladies Best 8-12 11-Jul-09 Yor 10GF C2Hc 97K 92 104.55
Coeur De Lionne 8-11 28-Nov-09 Lin 13St C3Hc 7K 92 105.17
Ladies Best 8-12 22-Apr-09 Eps 10Gd C2Hc 31K 92 103.98
Dance The Star 8-13 24-Jun-09 Kem 12St C4Hc 4K 90 101.12
Laterly 9-1 20-Nov-09 Wol 12St C2Hc 12K 89 97.25
Ladies Best 8-12 17-Sep-09 Ayr 10GS C2Hc 12K 88 99.43
Dance The Star 8-13 20-Nov-09 Wol 12St C2Hc 12K 87 97.19
Dance The Star 8-13 11-Apr-09 Kem 10St C3Hc 7K 87 97.19
Alpen Glen 8-6 12-Jun-09 Chp 12GF C5Md 3K 86 98.85
Laterly 9-1 18-Aug-09 Yor 10GF C2Hc 16K 85 93.41
Alpen Glen 8-6 30-Jul-09 Goo 10Gd C23yHc 37K 83 95.40
Coeur De Lionne 8-11 03-Nov-09 Kem 10St C2Hc 11K 80 91.38
Mister New York 8-7 24-Jan-09 Lin 8St C4Hc 4K 79 95.73
Mister New York 8-7 26-Oct-09 Lin 12St C4Hc 5K 78 95.12
Sgt Schultz 9-3 28-Nov-09 Lin 10St C2Hc 11K 78 83.87
Sgt Schultz 9-3 22-May-09 Nmk 12GF C3Hc 9K 78 83.33
Mister New York 8-7 04-Nov-09 Kem 10St C4Hc 4K 75 91.46
Dirar 8-11 20-Nov-09 Dun 11St Hc 13K 70 80.46
Dirar 8-12 17-Oct-09 Nmk 18Gd C2Hc 99K 67 77.01
Coeur De Lionne 8-11 01-Aug-09 Nmk 12Gd C4Hc 5K 66 75.29

"Nanton" (10pts) is different class to these so he is the selection.

Not very good, only two winners at 5/6 and 7/1.
"All of me" 16/1 is down to run again tonight (12th Dec) after finishing 5th, and he is up in class?

[TheBluesBrother]

I tackled the problem by developing class pars for every race grade.
Looking at a whole years results from every racecourse, I came up with these pars which were developed using pace + class for each grade; took about 2 months to complete.
(C7) 52, (C6) 60, (C5) 68, (C4) 80, (C3) 92, (C2) 96 (C1) 100, (G3) 106, (G2) 112, (G1) 120.

Taking the first horse you had as an example, this how I way up its chances.

Batchworth Blaise 09-May-09 Lin 7GF C5Hc 3K 49 110.23%
Batchworth Blaise 10-Jan-09 Kem 7St C6Hc 2K 48 107.95%
Batchworth Blaise 25-May-09 Goo 8GF C6Hc 3K 47 106.82%

Batchworth Blaise top three class ratings are 49, 48 and 47 and this shows me that the horse’s true ability is Class 7 (see class pars above).
Looking at his OR % against his top class figure of 49 shows 110.23%, which indicates that he is well handicapped against his official BHA Official Rating.
So the horse is approx 5lb well in on his best form which equates to 2.5 lengths over 7 furlongs.

5f = 3.5lb length
6f = 3.0
7f = 2.5
8f = 2.0 etc.

Saute 05-Dec-09 Sth 14St C6Hc 1K 72 124.14%
Saute 11-Nov-09 Sth 14St C6Hc 2K 62 106.90%
Saute 26-Oct-09 Kem 12St C63yHc 2K 60 102.59%

Salute best rating was 72; I would ignore this, as his next best were 62 and 60, so take 62 as the standard, his true class would then be Class 6.
He is 4lb well in which equates to 3.2 lengths (1.25lb per length over 14 Furlongs)

Inflammable 05-Dec-09 Wol 12St C5Md 2K 60 91.54%
Inflammable 21-Oct-09 Sth 11St C53yHc 3K 52 79.23%
Inflammable 24-Nov-09 Sth 12St C5Md 2K 50 76.92%

Inflammable best class ratings is 60 and looking at his OR % of 91.54% he not well handicapped (Needs to be 100% +).
If Inflammable was to run in a (C7) race I would be interested.

Shadows Lengthen 08-Dec-09 Sth 11St C6Hc 2K 78 100.65%
Shadows Lengthen 05-Dec-09 Sth 11St C5Hc 2K 72 93.51%
Shadows Lengthen 17-Nov-09 Sth 12St C6Hc 2K 69 89.61%

Looking at the form shows Shadows Lengthen to be a class 4 horse (i.e. 78) and the handicapper is not showing any mercy by lumping pounds on his back.

Finally looking at Batchworth Blaise best rating of 49 and OR % of 110.23% it is possible for him to run off
a rating of 54 if producing his best form i.e.((49 x 110.23%)/100)=54.01)…just food for thought.

[TheBluesBrother]

Interesting stuff:

Everytime I try something like this I end up with a headache

[TheBluesBrother]

Send this post off to Corals head office and add the link to this page, and watch what happens

[TheBluesBrother]

Just received this email from the Post.

[code:17yl5hxb]Dear Mr Bennett,
Our IT team have been doing some development work on the website and an update is expected to be made live some time next week.
We are hopeful that this will resolve the issue you have reported.
We understand that this has been very frustrating for you and hope you will accept as a gesture of goodwill the additional month’s extension we have applied to your subscription.

Kind regards,
Will Pepper
Racing Post Customer Services[/code:17yl5hxb]

[TheBluesBrother]

On my handicap list today I have Istiqdaam +17 running in the 5.50 Wolverhampton.
The handicapper put Istiqdaam up 8lb for the win and today he is also up in class (C5) and this race looks more a class 4 race in the making.
There is no way I would back Istiqdaam at 9/4 when you have Kensington dropped 4lb by the handicapper and also has a 7lb claimer on his back, he also has the top 3 form places when running my form macro.
At 25/1 Kensington takes my interest.

Selections:
1. Kensington
2. Istiqdaam (2nd 11/10 Fav)
3. Silver Hotspur

5.50 Wolverhampton (C5) 7f (Class Par 68)
Kensington 9-3 05-Feb-09 Sth 7St C4Hc 4K 76 110.14
Kensington 9-4 13-Jan-09 Grl 8St C5Hc 2K 75 108.70
Kensington 9-5 19-Jan-09 Wol 7St C4Hc 4K 75 107.97
Silver Hotspur 9-0 07-Jan-09 Wol 9St C4Hc 4K 74 112.12
Istiqdaam 8-13 21-Nov-09 Kem 7St C6Hc 1K 74 113.08
Dash Back 9-2 20-Jul-09 Ayr 6Gd C4Hc 6K 73 106.62
Eastern Gift 9-0 06-Aug-09 Bri 10Fm C5Hc 3K 73 109.85
Eastern Gift 9-1 31-Aug-09 Eps 9Gd C4Hc 5K 72 109.09
Eastern Gift 9-2 20-Aug-09 Eps 9GF C5Hc 3K 72 109.09
Electric Warrior 9-4 22-Feb-09 Lin 8St C6Cl 1K 72 102.14
Dash Back 9-3 21-Nov-09 Wol 6St C5Hc 3K 70 102.94
My Sweet Georgia 9-0 12-Nov-09 Sth 7St C6Hc 1K 70 105.30
Silver Hotspur 9-1 10-Feb-09 Sth 8St C4Hc 4K 69 104.55
Electric Warrior 9-5 07-Jan-09 Kem 7St C5Cl 2K 69 98.57
He´s A Humbug 9-1 08-Jul-09 Cat 7Gd C6Hc 2K 69 102.24
La Gifted 9-4 06-Nov-09 Wol 7St C6Hc 2K 68 97.14
Dash Back 9-4 13-Aug-09 Leo 8Gd Hc 9K 68 99.26
My Sweet Georgia 9-1 13-Jan-09 Sth 6St C53yHc 2K 66 100.00
My Sweet Georgia 9-2 30-Jan-09 Lin 7St C63yCl 2K 66 99.24
Silver Hotspur 9-2 16-Jan-09 Wol 9St C6Cl 2K 66 99.24
La Gifted 9-5 30-Oct-09 Wol 7St C5Hc 3K 63 89.29
La Gifted 9-6 29-Oct-09 Lin 7St C6Hc 2K 63 89.29
Istiqdaam 8-14 17-Jun-09 Ham 6Gd C5Hc 3K 61 93.08
He´s A Humbug 9-2 24-Nov-09 Sth 6St C5Hc 2K 60 89.55
Sadeek 9-2 06-Sep-09 Yor 7GS C4Hc 5K 57 83.82
He´s A Humbug 9-3 22-May-09 Ncs 7GS C5Hc 3K 56 82.84
Istiqdaam 8-15 04-Sep-09 Cat 7Sft C6Md 2K 53 81.54
Tin Cha Woody 9-4 30-Oct-09 Dun 8St Hc 7K 52 74.29
Tin Cha Woody 9-5 14-Nov-09 Lin 6St C3 7K 51 72.86
Electric Warrior 9-6 22-Mar-09 Sth 7St C4Hc 4K 49 69.29
Sadeek 9-3 17-Oct-09 Cat 7Gd C5Hc 2K 43 63.24
Tin Cha Woody 9-6 16-Oct-09 Dun 7St Hc 13K 43 60.71
Sadeek 9-4 28-Aug-09 Thi 7Gd C4Hc 5K 15 21.32

[TheBluesBrother]

After last weeks disaster in the ATR Getin Tipping contest, after picking 33/1, 3/1 and 16/1 winners and ending up in 78th position, I am back for another go.

6.50 Wolverhampton

Across The Sands 9-3 05-Nov-09 Lin 5St C5Md 2K 57 103.64
Norse Warrior 9-3 06-Jun-09 Cur 6Gd 8K 57 77.40
Rocket Ruby 8-12 04-Feb-09 Kem 6St C63yHc 2K 56 103.70
Luisa Tetrazzini 8-12 12-Nov-09 Sth 7St C53yMd 5K 51 86.44
Paddy Jack 9-3 28-Apr-09 Not 5GS C6Hc 2K 49 110.23
Shirley High 8-12 09-Oct-09 Wol 5St C5Md 2K 49 97.00
Badtanman 9-3 06-Apr-09 Wol 5St C63yHc 2K 47 113.41
Rightcar Dominic 9-3 09-Oct-09 Wol 5St C5Md 2K 44 93.62
Bella Fighetta 8-12 26-Nov-09 Kem 6St C6Md 2K 35 86.25
Camomile 8-12 15-Jul-09 Cat 7GS C63yMd 2K 14 32.93

Norse Warrior is the selection in the 6.50 as his form is better than the rest of the field and I am staking 10pts. (1st 9/2)

7.20 Wolverhampton

I am staking 10pts on the favourite Lady Of Akita. (1st 5/6)

7.50 Wolverhampton
Ocean Legend 8-4 25-Apr-09 San 8Gd C4Hc 7K 78 118.18
Swiss Art 8-2 07-Jun-09 Sth 7St C63ySl 2K 77 110.00
Clear Sailing 8-4 15-Jan-09 Grl 10St C5Sl 2K 75 114.62
Celtic Step 8-2 18-Jul-09 Rip 8Sft C4Hc 6K 71 108.46
Fujin Dancer 8-8 28-May-09 Ayr 10Gd C4Hc 5K 69 98.57
Transmission 8-12 13-Aug-09 Bev 8Gd C6Hc 2K 68 110.66
My Mate Mal 8-4 28-Sep-09 Wol 12St C6Hc 2K 62 96.09
Pride Of Nation 8-8 16-Nov-09 Wol 7St C6Sl 2K 60 87.50
Jojesse 8-2 02-Jan-09 Sth 7St/Slw C6Hc 2K 40 94.05

Ocean Legend is the best handicapped horse in the race and I am staking 10pts. (un/placed)

8.20 Wolverhampton
Hucking Heat 9-4 07-Jan-09 Wol 9St C4Hc 4K 70 112.90
Lady Florence 9-5 06-Aug-09 Bri 7Fm C5Hc 3K 70 111.11
Resentful Angel 9-6 15-Jul-09 Kem 7St C6Hc 2K 69 103.79
Lucky Score 9-2 02-May-09 Goo 10Gd C53yHc 3K 68 109.68
The Grey One 9-7 17-Aug-09 Wol 9St C6Hc 2K 67 103.08
Impressionist Art 9-1 20-Nov-09 Dun 8St 3yHc 4K 65 106.56
Dean Iarracht 8-12 26-Jul-09 Crl 9Gd C53yHc 3K 62 106.90
Make Amends 9-2 16-Aug-09 Bat 8GF C5Hc 2K 59 97.50
Coolnaharan 8-13 10-Sep-09 Chp 10Gd C6Hc 2K 55 95.61
Thistimesforgood 8-8 04-Aug-09 Ros 7Hy Hc 4K 42 79.81

Hucking Heat has dropped 4lb in the handicap and I see the money has come for him, I am staking 50pts (max) and hope that the odds of 8/1 do not shrink anymore. (un/placed)

8.50 Wolverhampton
Southandwest 9-4 01-Mar-09 Lin 8St C2Hc 11K 88 112.82
Just Bond 9-11 03-Apr-09 Mus 8GF C4Hc 5K 83 97.06
Arizona John 9-4 16-Sep-09 Yar 8GF C4Hc 6K 81 103.21
Stevie Gee 9-6 04-Jul-09 Crl 8Gd C4Hc 6K 79 98.75
Tamasou 9-3 03-Oct-09 Wol 9St/Fs C5Hc 3K 76 98.05
Ensnare 9-0 04-Nov-09 Kem 8St C6Hc 2K 75 101.35
Ninth House 8-13 17-Aug-09 Wol 7St C4Hc 5K 74 100.68
Plush 9-5 21-Jan-09 Wol 9St C5Hc 2K 74 93.04

Southandwest is the best rated and handicapped horse in the race and I am staking 10pts. (un/placed)

9.20 Wolverhamton
Lucky Leigh 9-4 06-Aug-09 San 5GF C43yHc 4K 81 108.00
Argentine 9-4 15-Jun-09 Crl 5GF C5Hc 2K 80 106.67
Bo McGinty 8-13 17-Apr-09 Thi 5GF C4Hc 5K 77 109.29
Colorus 9-1 12-Mar-09 Sth 5St C5Hc 3K 73 101.39
Caledonia Princess 8-10 14-Nov-09 Wol 5St C5Hc 3K 72 106.72
Cayman Fox 8-5 03-Sep-09 Wol 5St C6Hc 2K 70 112.90
Parc Aux Boules 8-11 26-Jun-09 Cur 5Sft Hc 10K 70 102.94
Perlachy 8-9 14-Nov-09 Wol 5St C5Hc 3K 69 103.79
Master Lightfoot 9-2 05-Nov-09 Lin 5St C5Md 2K 68 92.47
Love You Louis 8-13 12-Feb-09 Kem 5St C43yHc 5K 68 96.43
Fantasy Fighter 8-4 21-Nov-09 Lin 6St C6Hc 1K 64 105.83
Keyala 9-1 20-Nov-09 Dun 6St 7K 56 77.08
Anne Of Kiev 9-4 15-Oct-09 Wol 5St C4Hc 5K 29 38.00

Anne Of Kiev finished last in her only race this year and looking at the form I got the feeling that this a plot waiting to happen, so I staked 10pts. (1st 14/1)

3 winners and £125 profit, I might make the top hundred.
I thought that my nap Hucking Heat was going to win 2 furlongs out but he got swamped in the final furlong.

[TheBluesBrother]

Thought I would have a go at the ATR Getin tipping competition last night, selected three winners.

19:50 Phosters Handicap
10 points to win on Caprio at SP 33/1
20:50 Broadway Handicap
10 points to win on Spinning at SP 3/1
21:20 eventmasters.co.uk Corporate Hospitality Handicap (Div 2)
10 points to win on Welcome Approach at SP 16/1

Who’s a lucky boy then…

Only finished in 78th position with 450 points

[TheBluesBrother]

I was looking at the 3.00 Southwell to see if Shadows Lengthen carrying a double penalty would win again, and looking at the form macro the answer is no.
Red Wine is so well handicapped on his Turf form, if he is going to win a race on the All Weather, today is the day.
The highest OR % on any horse that I have had since running the form macro is 136% when Punching won at Southwell 2 runs ago, and now Red Wine is now top with 152%.
On my handicap list (16th May) I had Red wine as a +12 improver.

1. Red wine
Prominent, led over 3f out, ridden and headed over 2f out, soon driven and weakened over 1f out (op 10-1 tchd 11-1)
2. Colonel Sherman
3. Lost Soldier Three (2nd 11/4F)

3.00 Southwell (C5) (Class Par 68)

Red Wine 8-8 16-May-09 Don 12GS C5Hc 3K 81 152.83%
Red Wine 8-9 02-May-09 Don 15Gd C4Hc 4K 68 127.36%
Red Wine 8-10 28-Mar-09 Don 12Gd C5Hc 3K 65 121.70%
Colonel Sherman 9-2 11-Feb-09 Kem 12St C5Hc 2K 73 113.28%
Charging Indian 9-1 11-Apr-09 Kem 7St C43yHc 4K 78 113.04%
Lost Soldier Three 9-8 22-Aug-09 Chs 16GF C4Hc 5K 79 112.86%
Lost Soldier Three 9-9 24-Jul-09 Yor 12Gd C4Cl 5K 78 111.43%
Colonel Sherman 9-3 09-Jan-09 Lin 10St C6Hc 2K 71 110.16%
Lost Soldier Three 9-10 11-Nov-09 Sth 12St C6Cl 2K 77 110.00%
Shadows Lengthen 8-10 17-Nov-09 Sth 12St C6Hc 2K 69 107.81%
Shadows Lengthen 8-11 21-Nov-09 Wol 12St C6Hc 2K 68 105.47%
Benedict Spirit 9-8 30-May-09 Yor 12GF C4Cl 5K 74 105.00%
Colonel Sherman 9-4 24-Jan-09 Lin 10St C5Hc 2K 67 103.91%
Black Falcon 8-8 04-Jan-09 Sth 12St/Slw C6Hc 2K 54 100.94%
Benedict Spirit 9-9 08-Apr-09 Bri 10Gd C6Cl 1K 71 100.71%

[TheBluesBrother]

Looking at my handicap list today I have Shadows Lengthen +15 running today in the 6.15 Wolverhampton.
After running my form macro Shadows Lengthen still has the highest OR % so bar Hucking Hero, there should be nothing to beat him.
So the form selections are:

1. Shadows Lengthen (1st 13/8)
2. Hucking Hero
3. Piper´s Song

6.15 Wolverhapton (C6) (Class Par 60)

Shadows Lengthen 17-Nov-09 Sth 12St C6Hc 2K 68 130.77% ***
Hucking Hero 07-May-09 Wdr 10GF C4Hc 5K 73 121.67% **
Piper´s Song 17-Apr-09 Kem 10St C6Hc 2K 64 117.59% *
Kames Park 03-Jul-09 Bev 12GF C6Hc 2K 65 116.07%
Piper´s Song 13-May-09 Bat 12Fm C6Hc 2K 62 114.81%
Hucking Hero 25-Mar-09 Kem 8St C5Hc 2K 68 113.33%
Piper´s Song 02-Sep-09 Kem 11St C6Hc 2K 61 112.96%
Rare Coincidence 13-Apr-09 Red 16Fm C6Hc 1K 63 105.93%
Hucking Hero 15-May-09 Nby 10GS C5Hc 3K 64 105.83%
Rare Coincidence 06-Apr-09 Wol 17St C6Hc 2K 62 105.08%
Arashi 17-Sep-09 Wol 9St C53yHc 2K 66 103.13%
Arashi 28-Sep-09 Wol 9St C6Hc 2K 66 102.34%
Shadows Lengthen 21-Apr-09 Sth 11St C63yHc 2K 52 100.00%

[TheBluesBrother]

I thought I would look at the 9.20 Wolverhampton (C7) tonight using my new form macro.

The higher the OR % the better the horse is handicapped againgt his offical BHA OR rating.

1.

Libre

(3rd 33/1)
2.

Casablanca Minx

(needs further)
3.

Bidable

(1st 4/1)

9.20 Wolverhampton (C7) (Class Par 52)

Top Performers listed below:

Casablanca Minx 16-Feb-09 Wol 12St C6Hc 1K

58

126.09%

Libre 12-Sep-09 Wol 9St C6Hc 2K

57

115.31%

Libre 16-Jun-09 Yar 7Gd C6Hc 2K

57

115.31%

Bidable 31-Aug-09 Chp 7Gd C6Hc 2K

55

110.00%

Spanish Cross 27-Oct-09 Yar 10Gd C6Sl 1K

53

108.16%

Libre 13-Aug-09 Chp 8Gd C6Hc 2K

52

106.12%

Bidable 30-Oct-09 Wol 9St C7Hc 2K

51

101.00%

Russian Angel 25-Jul-09 Sal 8GF C5Hc 3K

50

104.17%

Casablanca Minx 04-Jul-09 Not 10Gd C6Hc 1K

50

107.61%

Blue Cross Boy 11-Sep-09 Dro 7Gd/Y Hc 4K

50

101.02%

Bidable 16-Nov-09 Wol 9St C6Hc 2K

50

99.00%

Casablanca Minx 20-Jul-09 Yar 11Gd C6Hc 2K

49

106.52%

Lunar Limelight 30-Oct-09 Wol 9St C7Hc 2K

49

101.04%

Ruwain 24-Apr-09 Wol 9St C6Hc 2K

49

101.04%

[TheBluesBrother]

On the 13th November I had Nacho Libre +13 on my handicap list.
Nacho Libre reappeared 4 days later 17th at Southwell and was made 3-1 favourite, from experience I knew that there would be a horse who had dropped off the radar with his offical rating down to blot my handicap so called good thing.
With this in mind I wrote a simple macro in excel which collected the best 3 class ratings (2009) on any horse and to return a percentage to show the current horse’s offical ratings against his best top 3 ratings.
I am looking for a horse that is top rated and has a percentage rating of at least 100% + and when I ran the macro, up popped "Punching" at 136% and my first thoughts were WTF…
When I read the form of Punching his handicap mark had dropped by 10lb and he only wins at Southwell these days.
Nacho Libre was rated 67 for the race (3rd) with Punching on 79 (1st) 12lb clear and he won pulling up at 7-2.
I have been testing this macro on bad AW races and the results look good, still work in progress.

Example:

6.00 Kempton 19th Nov (C3)(Class Par 92)

HORSE
Shifting Star 95 101.61%
Ray Of Joy 86 102.38%
Haajes 85 100.00%
Princess Valerina 85 103.05%
Earlsmedic 84 105.00%
Princess Valerina 84 101.83%
Earlsmedic 83 103.13%
River Kirov 82 101.88%

Shifting Star is the class horse of the race on 95 (3rd), and the best handicapped horse is Earlsmedic at 105%. (Won 6/1)

Just food for thought…

[Author]

Posts