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I was just updating my handicap list when I came across
Saddlers Bend
which ran on the 26th March at Wolverhampton over 6f in a Class 7 race.
I seen some horses plotted up in my time but this one goes into Gay Future category.
On his run here he improved 19+ (in a Class 7, "oh come on").Form Reads:
26Feb10 Wol 6St C7Hc 1K 8-7 1/12 2¾L, Royal Acclamation[9/2]8-13 Nathan Alison 45 — 65
20Jul09 Bal 9Y 6K 9-0 12/13 42L, Loch Long[50/1]9-5t W J Supple 44 — —
10Jun09 Fai 10Y 3yHc 4K 7-13 16/18 40L, Miss Al Gunn[33/1]9-8t G F Carroll 47 — —
22May09 Wex 9Y/Sft 7K 8-9 14/16 22L, Anam Chara[50/1]9-0 E J McNamara — 10 30
13May09 Naa 8Gd/Y 10K 8-9 15/20 19L, Dance Pass[50/1]9-0 E J McNamara — — 30
29Mar09 Leo 10GF 3y 11K 8-7 16/16 46L, Roses For The Lady[50/1]9-0t I J Brennan — — —Running today
in the 5.40 Wolverhampton, another steering job?
Won 11/10F (I expect the handicapper to raise this horse up 16lb’s)
Looking at my handicap list for today, I have fulford +14 running and can he win?
I have updated my form macro to look at the best two races of every horse in the race from November 2009 onwards, and then combined speed and class to produce the top ten form races.2.00 Southwell:
Fulford 04-Feb-10 Sth 6St/Slw C7Hc 2K
59 111.32
Cheery Cat 10-Jan-10 Sth 6Sl C6Hc 1K
56 107.69
Fuzzy Cat 21-Dec-09 Kem 6St C6Hc 1K 58 105.45
Tri Chara 12-Nov-09 Sth 7St C6Hc 1K
60 111.11
Fuzzy Cat 26-Jan-10 Sth 6St C6Hc 1K 56 101.82
Cheery Cat 26-Jan-10 Sth 6St C6Hc 1K
52 100.00
Vogarth 08-Jan-10 Sth 7Sl C6Hc 2K
58 104.55
Makshoof 01-Dec-09 Lin 6St C6Hc 1K
55 105.77
Angle Of Attack 20-Jan-10 Kem 7St C6Hc 1K
59 106.36
Tri Chara 08-Feb-10 Wol 7St C6Sl 1K
54 99.07
On current form Fulford has come out on top with class figure of 59 and he is still well handicapped at 111.32% against his offical BHA figure.
The horse with the best form in the race is Tri Chara, but he is running over 6 furlongs today, because his odds this morning were 16/1 he needs to be looked at.Selection: Fulford
Danger: Tri CharaFulford (9/2) finished 2rd beaten a neck by Fuzzy Cat and his 5lb claimer Dean Heslop, made the difference.
(C7) 52 (C6) 60 (C5) 68 (C4) 80 (C3) 92 (C2) 96 (C1) 100 (G3) 106 (G2) 112 (G1) 120
If you take the above pars which I use for each class, you will see that there is a difference or 12lb’s between a class 5 and a class 4 race.
If the race was over 5f (3.5lbs per length) this would mean a class diffence of 3.4 lengths.
if the race was over 8f (2.0 lbs per length) this would mean a class diffence of 6 lengths.
if the race was over 12f (1.5 lbs per length) this would mean a class diffence of 8 lengths.
if the race was over 16f (1.0 lb per length) this would mean a class diffence of 12 lengths.Just a rough guide but the most importance thing is the race distance, as a horse beaten 2 lengths in a 5f race would need to improve 7lb’s to match the winner, where as a horse beaten 2 lengths is a 2 mile race will only need to find 2lb’s.
If you look at my excel sheet in systems (Private Handicapping) on sheet 3 there is my
complete chart of race pars, and all you have to do is work out the distance per pound i.e. 1 length = 3.5lb’s over 5 furlongs etc.I was updating my handicap sheet this morning when I came across
Aaman
which ran in the 4.20 Southwell AW on the 28th January 2010.
This race being a low standard class 6 apprentice handicap should not have been of much interest, but when my calculator said the horse had improved 23lb’s (3 grades) up from C7/C6 to a C4, my first reaction was WTF.
The handicapper has to put up this horse by at least 25lb’s just to be on the safe side, after the enterprising ride his young jockey gave him by winning by 16 lengths.
Aaman is the fourth highest improver in the past year at 23+ on my list and he is entered in a class 6 amateur handicap at Southwell 1.30 tomorrow (2nd Feb) with no penalty.
Bound to be odds-on, but this has to a steering job, and even Big Mac could steer this one home.
I just wonder if the trainer had a few words with the jockey, as winning a race is ok, but not by 16 lengths as the handicapper will have his revenge.Now I have made this statement we better lay him to lose
Won by 12 lengths and handicapper has raised him 20lb’s
Who on earth is interested in racing in Dubai though? There will be a few but thats it – a few!
I am, because it’s the start of the honest racing
The Sporting Chronicle Handicap Book brings back fond memories for me.
Back in those days the declarations where for horses entered about 2 weeks in advanced, which gave you good insight into what races trainers were aiming for.
I remember Ken Payne (The Coup) had 22 horses entered one day in a selling race, and come the day had only one runner which went in at 6/1.
This publication I do believe, must have been the first to publish speed figures?Only a matter of time before they introduce Harness racing at Lingfield.
The flat jockeys can have a go; I remember my old mate Brian Henry telling me that he had a go, and it fightened the **** out of him.This is an old potato, I can remember Charlie Nelson back in the 80’s running horses at CAGNES SUR MER with John Reid on board.
I am currently working on the bias of all tracks (The Draw) not speed figures.
When I get to the turf tracks I will devide the draw bias into two groups i.e. hard/gd firm/firm/good and Gd soft/soft/heavy.
I have on several occasions heard commentators state that there is a draw bias over 5 furlongs at Southwell and the above example proves that theory wrong.
Where needed I am going back to 2004 to get a big enough database to cover distance around 2 miles.
This is something to past the time while the bad weather is with us.In this section you will find a post about the Racingpost website that I submitted.
They just recently changed the setup of the website after I sent them a video of the problems I was having.
I am using firefox 3.5.7, which is the browser I prefer, and I have no problems due to the fact that I have tweaked it.
The main problem with the Post’s website was the amount of flash running on it, which will crash some browsers, you can get a Firefox addon called "Flashblock" which turns them off, give it a try.Kim Brassey is a top man:
When he trained in upper Lambourn back in the 80’s he gave me the rundown on his top sprinter "Amigo Menor", he told me he would run 3 times, and on the 3rd outing he will be wearing blinkers, so get on.
On his 3rd outing he ran at Lingfield with blinkers on and won at 7/1.2.35 Leopardstown Lexus Chase Mon 28th.
Looks to be a two horse race between Notre Pere and Voy Por Ustedes.
2.35 Leopardstown 24f
Notre Pere 29-Apr-09 Pun 25Sft/Hy ChG1 160K 173 103.29
Voy Por Ustedes 14-Feb-09 Asc 22Hy C1ChG1 84K 171 100.89
Joncol 06-Dec-09 Pun 20Hy ChG1 59K 161 99.38
Schindlers Hunt 12-Mar-09 Chl 21GS C1ChG1 125K 161 100.00
What A Friend 28-Nov-09 Nby 27GS C1HcChG3 114K 158 101.28
In Compliance 06-Dec-09 Pun 20Hy ChG1 59K 156 100.32
Cooldine 11-Mar-09 Chl 25GS C1ChG1 96K 150 93.75
J´y Vole 06-Dec-09 Pun 20Hy ChG1 59K 146 97.33
Money Trix 06-Dec-09 Kel 23Sft C2HcCh 14K 145 96.03
Cloudy Lane 06-Dec-09 Kel 23Sft C2HcCh 14K 139 88.22
Aran Concerto 12-Apr-09 Fai 20Gd ChG1 63K 134 90.20What a great result for Sir Alex and Sam Thomas
I had a look at the 1.10 Southwell today.
Looking at this race "Eseej" 5/1 has the highest rating at Southwell over this trip.
(The top three races for each horse, are compiled in order of class ratings).1.10 Southwell 11f (C5)
Desert Vision 18-Dec-09 Wol 9St/Slw C6Hc 2K 82 103.80
Eseej 18-Oct-09 Sth 11St C4Hc 5K 78 107.64
Eseej 10-Aug-09 Wdr 12GF C5Hc 2K 76 105.56
Desert Vision 07-Dec-09 Wol 9St C5Hc 2K 75 94.94
Applaude 07-Aug-09 Hay 10Gd C5Cl 3K 75 129.31
Trachonitis 23-Sep-09 Goo 12Gd C4Hc 4K 74 110.45
Eseej 11-Feb-09 Kem 12St C5Hc 2K 74 102.08
Desert Vision 14-Dec-09 Wol 9St C5Hc 3K 74 93.04
Monfils Monfils 28-Jul-09 Bev 10GF C6Hc 2K 73 115.08
Applaude 17-Sep-09 Ayr 10GS C4Sl 6K 72 124.14
Resplendent Ace 21-Nov-09 Kem 10St C5Hc 2K 70 96.53
Resplendent Ace 07-Oct-09 Kem 12St C6Hc 2K 70 96.53
Resplendent Ace 18-Sep-09 Wol 9St C6Hc 2K 68 94.44
Monfils Monfils 07-Apr-09 Pon 12GF C5Hc 3K 67 106.35
Monfils Monfils 04-Apr-09 Ncs 12GF C5Hc 2K 67 106.35
Applaude 28-May-09 Ayr 10Gd C4Hc 5K 64 110.34
Trachonitis 13-Sep-09 Goo 12GF C4Hc 5K 60 89.55
Dream In Blue 15-Dec-09 Sth 11St C6Sl 2K 60 91.54
Trachonitis 11-Oct-09 Lin 13St/Slw C5Hc 3K 58 86.57
Dream In Blue 24-Nov-09 Sth 12St C5Md 2K 57 86.92
Dream In Blue 20-May-09 Wor 24GF C4NvH 3K 53 80.77
Mister Frosty 28-May-09 Yar 8Gd C5Md 2K 53 100.96
Mister Frosty 18-Dec-09 Sth 11St/Slw C53yHc 2K 50 96.15
Mister Frosty 07-Dec-09 Lin 10St C6Hc 1K 47 90.38Trachonitis must be well ahead of the handicapper with the ease in which he won.
The Welsh National Chepstow Mon 28th.
I like the look of Flintoff in this, nice weight.
2.10 Chepstow 29f
Mon Mome 11-12 04-Apr-09 Ain 36GS C1HcChG3 506K 161
The Tother One 11-4 11-Dec-09 Chl 26Sft C1HcChL 28K 159
Gone To Lunch 11-1 28-Apr-09 Pun 25Sft NvChG1 54K 156
Ballyfitz 10-10 14-Nov-09 Chl 21Sft C1HcChG3 85K 150
Halcon Genelardais 11-9 21-Nov-09 Hay 24Sft C1ChG1 112K 149
Flintoff 10-6 14-Mar-09 Utt 34Sft C1HcChL 57K 145
Nozic 11-4 28-Nov-09 Ncs 24GS C1HcChL 33K 139
Merigo 9-13 21-Feb-09 Ncs 33Hy C2HcCh 31K 138
Sound Accord 9-13 18-Mar-09 War 25Gd C3NvCh 6K 138
Hello Bud 10-8 14-Nov-09 Chl 28Sft C1HcChG3 31K 137
Le Beau Bai 10-9 05-Dec-09 Chp 24Hy C2HcCh 13K 135
Turpin Green 10-8 21-Nov-09 Hay 24Sft C2HcCh 21K 133
Kornati Kid 10-11 28-Nov-09 Nby 27GS C1HcChG3 114K 133
Operation Houdini 10-5 11-Oct-09 Lim 24Y/Sft HcCh 66K 131
Zacharova 9-12 17-Apr-09 Chl 29GS C3HcCh 9K 131
Companero 10-6 09-Nov-09 Crl 25Sft C2Ch 18K 127
Coe 10-5 28-Nov-09 Ncs 24GS C1HcChL 33K 125
Kilbeggan Blade 10-4 25-Apr-09 San 30Gd C1HcChG3 94K 124
Silver By Nature 10-2 01-Nov-09 Crl 26Sft C3HcCh 26K 122
Never So Blue 9-9 25-Feb-09 Ban 25GS C3HcCh 6K 121
Teeming Rain 9-2 03-Mar-09 Exe 31Sft C3HcCh 13K 120
Oscar Bay 10-3 02-Mar-09 Str 20Gd C3NvCh 7K 119
Miko De Beauchene 11-1 06-Dec-09 War 25Sft C2Ch 25K 117
Supreme Keano 8-13 16-Jan-09 Chp 24Hy C4HcCh 3K 117
Mr Strachan 9-11 09-Dec-09 Hex 25Hy C3HcCh 25K 116
Gentle Ranger 9-9 01-Nov-09 Crl 26Sft C3HcCh 26K 107
Rate Of Knots 9-3 01-Nov-09 Crl 26Sft C3HcCh 26K 107
L´Aventure 9-2 06-Dec-09 Kel 32Sft C2HcCh 25K 100I solved the problem on whether a horse is well handicapped by introducing a OR % against each rating.
Joe Lively BHA OR 149:
24-Jan-09 Chl 26Hy C1ChG2 57K 142 95.30%
28-Nov-09 Nby 27GS C1HcChG3 114K 115 77.18%
11-Dec-09 Chl 26Sft C1HcChL 28K 114 76.17%This is the top 3 races that Joe Lively has run during 2009, if the look at his top rated race, which was on the 24th Jan 2009.
He got a rating of 142 (My system) and against his Offical rating today of 149 he is badly handicapped, his OR % is 95.30% must be 100% +.
If a horse I fancy is top rated and has a OR % of 110% + I get excited.(142/149)*100 = 95.30%
Until Joe Livery gets an offical rating of under 142
I would not have a bet.Himalayan Trail BHA OR 120:
29-Nov-09 Crl 25Hy C3HcCh 9K 94 78.33%
13-Apr-09 Fai 29Gd HcCh 136K 87 72.08%
16-Sep-09 Lis 24Gd HcCh 93K 81 67.08%Straight away you can see that Himalayan Trail is so badly handicapped on his present mark, he will need to drop 26lb’s just to be able to win and get his OR % to 100%.
Mind you this is only food for thought and the system I use is simple…
I was looking at the Paddy Power chase at Leopardstown on the 27th.
"Dooneys Gate" 14/1 is the selection for me, he is very well handicapped (108.08%) and posted a high rating of 141 on his last start.3.05 Leopardstown 24f (0-145)
Dashing George 11-0 11-Oct-09 Lim 24Y/Sft HcCh 66K 144 106.30
Gungadu 11-10 29-Apr-09 Pun 25Sft/Hy ChG1 160K 143 98.28
Dooneys Gate 10-9 02-Dec-09 Fai 17Hy HcCh 18K 141 108.08
Bringbackthebiff 11-1 14-Feb-09 Gow 18Hy Ch 9K 140 102.57
Siegemaster 11-3 16-Feb-09 Nav 24Hy NvChG2 26K 139 100.72
Orpheus Valley 10-4 06-Dec-09 Pun 20Hy HcCh 15K 135 103.46
Paddy Pub 10-9 11-Oct-09 Lim 24Y/Sft HcCh 66K 132 101.15
Oscar Time 10-3 12-Jan-09 Pun 20Sft/Hy Ch 9K 132 106.05
Operation Houdini 10-10 11-Oct-09 Lim 24Y/Sft HcCh 66K 131 100.00
Oscar Looby 10-11 11-Oct-09 Lim 20Y/Sft Ch 9K 131 98.86
Ballytrim 10-11 25-Feb-09 Dpt 28Y HcCh 16K 129 97.73
Selection Box 10-6 07-Mar-09 Ayr 16Hy C3HcCh 6K 129 101.57
Glenquest 9-8 26-Feb-09 Thu 20Sft NvHG2 26K 127 110.43
Hume River 9-12 06-Dec-09 Pun 20Hy HcCh 15K 127 103.69
Rathmore Castle 10-7 06-Dec-09 Pun 20Hy HcCh 15K 126 98.44
Polmar 10-1 11-Apr-09 Cor 20Y/Sft HcCh 10K 124 101.23
Hold The Pin 9-13 11-Oct-09 Lim 17Y/Sft ChG3 19K 123 102.50
Leanne 9-13 11-Oct-09 Lim 17Y/Sft ChG3 19K 123 102.50
Askthemaster 9-13 04-May-09 Lim 17Y/Sft Ch 11K 121 100.83
Pomme Tiepy 10-12 11-Dec-09 Chl 26Sft C1HcChL 28K 121 90.60
Newbay Prop 10-6 12-Mar-09 Chl 26GS C2HcCh 36K 121 94.88
Lochan Lacha 10-1 15-Mar-09 Nav 24Hy NvHcCh 31K 120 98.36
Parsons Pistol 11-0 11-Oct-09 Lim 24Y/Sft HcCh 66K 119 88.15
Nipper John 9-2 17-Jul-09 Klb 22Gd Ch 8K 119 108.72
Scavenger 9-2 21-Feb-09 Fai 20Sft HcH 16K 119 108.72
Judge Deed 9-1 10-Oct-09 Fai 24Gd Ch 5K 119 109.72
Old Si 10-5 26-Oct-09 Gal 22Sft HcCh 17K 116 92.06
Lord Cebellino 9-5 31-Oct-09 Naa 16Sft/Hy Ch 10K 113 100.45
Casey Supreme 10-2 22-Nov-09 Nav 24Hy HcCh 50K 111 90.24
Plaisir D´Estruval 10-4 04-Feb-09 Dro 20Hy Ch 6K 111 97.37
Hoopy 10-5 13-Nov-09 Chl 25GS C2HcCh 12K 106 83.73
High Fidelitay 8-12 08-Nov-09 Lim 24Hy HcCh 10K 104 94.95
Lasse Viern 9-6 11-Jan-09 Leo 17Y/Sft Ch 9K 96 86.04
Queiros Bleu 9-10 14-Oct-09 Pun 20Y HcCh 10K 95 81.20
Sir Johnny 9-11 28-Nov-09 Fai 21Hy Ch 9K 86 72.46Well the gamble on Dooneys Gate 4/1f totally backfired, was only mentioned once throughout the race.
