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When assessing ratings given to three year olds in open handicaps don’t forget they’re assessed against a lower weight than older horses. Under Timeform’s weight for age scale for 1m1f at the end of September 9-8 compared to 10-0 for older horses.
Very similar to the new BHA WFA scale where the allowance for a 3yo is 4lbs at the beginning of October, so between the two scales there is a 2lb difference.
I have a copy of the Timeform WFA scale which I do believe was compiled by the late Dick Whitford back in the days of yor, no matter what scale you use Beat the Bank is not a 120 rated horse.
Mike.
…Beat The Bank’s Joel Stakes Timeform performance rating now stands at 121, with his last three races this season also 120, 120 and 121.
I was looking at my speed figures for Beat the Bank and they are nothing special, how Timeform came came up with these ratings beats me, I currently have Beat the Bank 10lbs behind Cambridgeshire winner Wissahickon.
Mike.
Having read JG’s quote he mentioned Frankie says they went to hard in front which would explain the performance as an individual time.
On the clock, I wouldn’t say they went too hard up front, it was one of those rare occasions, a true run race.
Another aspect for comparisons is the going allowances on the day.
2000 Guineas – 0.00s/f (good)
Derby – +0.12s/f (good)
Cambridgeshire – +0.13s/f (good)In conclusion, Timeform were right in their assessment Wissahickon is the better horse.
Mike.
I saw a post on twitter that Wissahickon was given a TF rating higher than Saxon Warrior, based on his win on Saturday.
Comparing two horses over two different trips, at different times of the year is a bit silly.
Looking at my speed figures and using the RP WFA I compared the two.
Saxon Warrior 84 + 10lbs WFA = 94 (2000 Guineas)
Saxon Warrior 82 + 18lbs WFA = 100 (Derby)
Wissahickon 92 + 8lb WFA = 100So comparing the two together you can see that Wissahickon performance in the Cambridgeshire was certainly impressive.
Mike.
As most people already know, it is speed figures for me.
2018 Flat turf: https://drive.google.com/open?id=1Mp22BGgjGZ26nolq0qp91FIs_VWnW_mA
From Ist Sept:
AW2018_2019: https://drive.google.com/open?id=1DDkTSTVlFh3qbylKq8bYYx7ZycOZNoQ8NH2018_2019: https://drive.google.com/open?id=1r1FcjEUEFRXIlojKmtcyGH6NIv9nbBdr
Mike.
GoldenMiller34 – This is all on Google Chrome.
This has been an ongoing problem with Google Chrome for some time, have you tried uninstalling your Chrome browser, then doing a fresh install, this has been known to solve the problem with the 2 scroll bars.
First make sure you have a copy of Chrome before you uninstall your chrome browser.
Mike.
Goldenmiler64 – If anyone has an idea of how to get rid of it please let me know!
This is normally caused by an add-on affecting the page size, sometimes it will go away by a simply rebooting your system.
I have occasionally had 2 scrollbars appear with popup windows in Firefox, the culprit I found was the Malwarebytes addon I was running, sometimes disabling an addon then enabling it again will also fix the problem.
Mike.
They have lost a server, I sent an email to the helpdesk this morning at 04.15am.
For the past year I have been reporting the same problem to them about accessing some results pages, Will Pepper and his crew would come back with the same statement (it’s a cache problem), without resolving the issue, so I informed the owners of the RP and got them to sort it out.
Mike.
Another way to convert French handicap ratings is to divide by 0.453 grams.
44/0.453 = 97.13
On the day Borderforce ran to a RPR of 95, using my RPR conversion chart this converts to a OR of 87.
RPR converter: https://drive.google.com/open?id=1ePKDc5qpqsFbCXXS-_TbwboooI6Edf7b
Note: The conversion chart ratios were calculated from 33,000 races using SPSS, this was because The BHA WFA table is totally flawed, for example the Racing Post WFA table says a 2yo in March should receive a WFA of 26lbs, and the BHA says 47lbs.
WFA Tables: https://drive.google.com/open?id=1nu0vD8iau7SQbxvpSsBkvr67DdG5SPxp
Mike.
Racial diversity is a serious problem, I lay awake at night wondering how many white folks work in Indian call centres.
stevecaution – In the 3YO table an RPR of 122 is shown to convert to 109 on BHA but the BHA rating for Masar is 121
Steve you have to remember that there is a massive flaw when it comes to the BHA’s WFA scale, if you compare the RP WFA scale for a 2yo in March they receive 26lbs, on the BHA’s scale they receive 47lbs, there is a 21lb difference between the two, the RP is more accurate in my opinion.
KevMcalley – Do you use RPRs blues?
I certainly do, when I am calculating going allowances, the main variable I use is winners official rating, if they haven’t been allocated a rating I will use the RPR awarded for the winner using my conversion chart.
Mike.
Blues Brother, I am interested in your Racing Post to Official Ratings converter.
The ratios for the RPR converter were calculated from 33,000+ races using SPSS.
RPR Converter: https://drive.google.com/open?id=1ePKDc5qpqsFbCXXS-_TbwboooI6Edf7b
Mike.
Jackh1092 – It’s poor show from France and everyone involved
You only have to look at the problems I see practically on a daily basis regarding official going descriptions.
Saturday’s meeting at Deauville the Racing Post had the going as soft, Dave Edwards “TopSpeed” time base going on the turf was +0.36s/f (good to firm).Looking at yesterday’s Leicester card I had the going at +0.39s/f (good to firm)
Oisin Murphy feeling the ground was a little bit dead, while Harry Bentley felt there was plenty of ease in the ground.
The official going description at Leicester was GOOD (Good to firm in places; watered; 7.2)
You have a different problems in Ireland due to suspect race distances, the flat meeting at Last week’s Sligo meeting I calculated that the 10.45f races were run over 10.07f, to correct for this faux pas, the official going was given as good, RP Dave Edwards had to use a going allowance of +0.56s/f (firmx) to correct for this anomaly.
I could go on but I have yet to meet anybody who even understands what is really going on, Dave Edwards is exempt from this statement.
Mike.
Gingertipster – Deauville today and yesterday described officially as “soft”. Putting away owners, trainers, bookmakers and punters.
The going at Deauville Sunday on the turf was +0.33s/f (good to firm).
As Claude Chalet RUK French racing Expert once stated, the clerk of the courses in France are under no obligation to report accurate going descriptions, tongue in cheek statement, but accurate.
Alpha Centauri’s speed figure was very impressive at 106, using my RPR conversion chart he ran to an OR of 115.
Mike.
Gingertipster – How is that worked out, BB? Why 17 and 10 lbs?
Quite simple, I use my own lbs per length figures and dialled in going allowances, plus the variances I use for flat meetings.
For example, the difference between a normal flat meeting and a festival meeting like Goodwood and Royal Ascot is 14lbs.
So for a normal meeting I will use a -8lb variance and for the big meetings a -22lb variance, over the jumps I use a -28lbs variance.
Don’t forget my speed figures are also adjusted for any rail movements, I also calculate and adjust standard times using SPSS, my speed figures are unique to me…2018 Turf Speed Figures:
https://drive.google.com/open?id=1Fo12vn11NrT1mgHKBMY71hZqY0q_dok8Mike.
Gingertipster – So Battaash can be rated as giving Take Cover at least a 19 lbs beating. Muthmir a further 1/2 length (2 lbs) behind; at least a 21 lbs beating.
I made it 17lbs.
Gingertipster – Take Battaash out of the Kings Stand and Blue Point beat Mabbs Cross (who was getting the 3 lbs fillies allowance) by 2 lengths. So Blue Point gave Mabbs Cross roughly an 11 lbs beating
I made it 10lbs.
Last run speed figures:
Battaash – 94
Take cover – 77
Blue point – 97
Mabbs Point – 87Battaash (Ascot) – 91
Battaash (Haydock) – 100
Battaash (Chantilly Oct 2017) – 109When Battaash earned his speed figure of 109 at Chantilly I had the going at 0.00s/f (good).
Mike.
Battaash is up there with the all-time greats on yesterday’s performance.
Hmmmmm… what did Battaash beat, Matt?Looked impressive on the eye…
On good to firm going manages a time 0.40a under the standard, on the clock it was a good performance but nothing special, I did like Matt sucking up to Hamdan after the race, champion sprinter of 2018 my arse…
Turf Speed Figures:
https://drive.google.com/open?id=1Fo12vn11NrT1mgHKBMY71hZqY0q_dok8Mike.