Forum Replies Created
-
Posts
-
Newbury 4:00
Mister Musicmaster £15 win @ 11/2 (various) WonHector’s Chance £25 win @ 5/1 (Various)
Nottingham 15:40
Lexington Abbey £25 win @ 11/2 (various) Won
Guishan £10 win @ 15/2 (WilliamHill)
(+187.30)
Thanks both once again. Rich I’d agree on the starting slow, I was thinking of banking £130 from my DLAP thread out of the accounts, and starting a scheme of mixed stakes based on confidence.
I like GT’s setup, where his points system more often than not provide a cover (saver as he calls it) to avoid complete losses on a race. An example of when this can go wrong is the 3:55 yesterday at Salisbury, but of course instances like that will always crop up. But I’m still yet to come up with something I’m comfortable with.
I was also going to ask about that, if anybody was subscribed to soruces like timeform, racingpost etc. Do you find them really beneficial or is it really recycled information that can be found elsewhere on the internet? I could do without another monthly subscription in my life!
Salisbury 4:25
Dark Diamond £20 each way @ 17/2 (Stan James) Placed
Sea Vision £15 each way @ 16/1 (Various) Lost
(+262.30)
Thanks mate, really appreciate the help. I’ve been away from the horses for a little while whilst trying to build a proper points system to maximise profits, or at least keep them consistent against my bank balance. If you saw my thread in DLAP, you’ll see my stakes are a little all over the place.
I do admire your eye for creating your own book though, I’ve been trying to do this for a while but the only problem is, you cannot know if you are right. So I’d imagine there would be a lot of costly errors involved in this. Usually I can look at a race and disqualify at least a couple straight off the bat, but then if I was compiling a book I’d have to give those disqualified horses some odds to ensure that the book was in fact accurate?
Regards the turn of foot, I actually heard the same thing you said on a racing podcast last week. Difficult to work out sometimes whether it is indeed a sharp turn of foot or not, but all down to experience I guess.
Thanks for the help, and good luck to yourself.
No time for a write up as I’m doing this on the sly at the office.
Not a great deal to aim at again today, so again found a couple that might be overlooked in the betting.
4:50 – Flash City £15 each way @ 12/1 (L, B365) Lost
4:50 – Thatcherite £20 each way @ 8/1 (WH) Placed(+332.30)
Lower stakes as there’s not much to aim at tomorrow, a couple I think are overpriced though, mind you.
14:35 – Dutch Breeze £20 each way @ 16/1 (Various) Placed – Looks well into me, back down to a winning mark and could see off this field from the front. Nothing special going on here so willing to take a punt, place claims certainly and a bit of luck in running could see him first past the post.
15:55 – Chancery £20 each way @ 10/1 (Various) Placed – I can forgive the latest run at York, in which MOF ran into a close second only beaten by the impressive and further improvement Mahsoob. Chancery showed a very impressive turn of foot at ripon over 9f before that, striding past Master of Finance, Hit the Jackpot and Silvery Moon. Would be easy to say the 6lb rise found him out at York, but at 8/1 I’ll give him another go.
(+350.30)
Fiftyshadesofgrey hacks up easily, definitely one to keep a close eye on this season!
(+296.70)
Goodwood 2:40
God Willing continues to go close without getting his head in front while Mr Win could have more to come after his first appearance of the season at Ascot. He has Buick on board who boasts the best record at Goodwood out of the jockeys, but it remains to be seen whether Mr Win will strip fit enough from that run. Take A Note is back from a long lay off and I won’t be expecting much of a run from that, based on his previous record after a break.
Saucy Minx is one to take note of, a rather laboured run last time out but still managed to hold on for the win. Doesn’t have a great record racing against the opposite sex, but I won’t be ruling it out and will have a small each way on at 8/1. Also knows how to win around here.
I’m slightly apprehensive about this one as my selections are based on horses that can win it from the back, usually behind the trend at Goodwood. A tricky course notorious for trouble in running and finding the gaps is important. There doesn’t appear to be an obvious front runner in this race, so I’m hoping God Willing will take it up from the front as he did last time out, which appeared to be a change in tactics to usual. That should allow Fiftyshadesofgrey to show his talent and gallop away into the final 2 furlongs. Showed a great turn of pace last time out to leave Pastoral Player chasing a shadow, and after a poor start to last season, can continue his improvement from the back end of last year. Form reads 1216-21 and I expect another place in the winner’s enclosure for this one.
Fiftyshadesofgrey – £40 win @ 3/1 (PP, Coral) Won
Saucy Minx – £15 each way @ 8/1 (BV, PP, L, Coral) Lost(+136.70)
Lost out on £21 because of Pearl Acclaim activating Rule 4, but still a healthy return on Classy Anne, going off at 11/1 (taken at 16/1).
Great to get off to a positive start.
(+196.70)
Obsidian for a place and Flyman finishing down the field means I finish £2.50 in the red after the first day. Free Code underestimated it seems, back to the drawing board!
I don’t have time for a full write up, but I will say this.
Classy Anne in the 4:50 Ayr tomorrow seems to big a price to me at 16/1 (BV).
On collateral against the field (who luckily all seemed to have raced each other or the same horses recently), I can’t see why this one has such a big price? Granted, it’s last 2 runs give form of 00, but has been out for 6 months. Coming back from a break last time, it took a couple of runs to get going before a hat-trick was pulled off. A much lower level mind, but I’m willing to take a chance on this one to reproduce and at least get in the money.
Besides this, the main bet is on Long Awaited. Has a consistent record and definite class, and is dropped back in class for this. Gibbons is in fine form of late and at 5/1 (missed the opening 6/1
) I’m happy to take the punt. Handles testing ground and has been performing well of late, minus a blotch at Epsom where never really getting involved.Classy Anne – £15 e/w @ 16/1 (Various) Won
Long Awaited – £30 e/w @ 5/1 (Various) Lost-£92.50
Hi Rich, thanks for the reply.
You’re most certainly right, I am predominantly hoping for a big win more than small steady profits. Seems naive and I’m sure as I get older and wiser (with any luck), I’ll find a more stable system of securing profits. I’m 21 currently by the way.
I still find gambling fun, and don’t get myself into any financial trouble with my betting, but of course you’d rather win than lose! I note your comments about sniffing around the strike rates at various courses etc, but my concern is should I go on a losing run of 10 or more (which is not unfathomable by any means as you’ll know), then there goes £1000 down the drain! Or at £10 stakes, £100. You get the picture, but it would feel to me like it will take forever to recoup those losses, and could I continue? Perhaps I’d get to the point where I cut the losses and just stop, but that’s where it would take the fun out for me.
I agree that value is everything when pricing up and evaluating races, but I’m adamant that with the right preparation you can make big wins on single races. Surely, compiling enough evidence to make a solid case for a horse, can warrant a £500 e/w on it, if you’re that confident about it?
My problem is, I can’t be that confident as I don’t have the means of gathering the information. I’ve read many a blog online, and even on here, where people just seem to know when a horse is improving, or when it’s due to run a big race. How do you know?! It boggles my mind
It’s things like that that I’m looking to learn.
I appreciate your help, and will take on board what you’ve said, especially the patience part! I need to learn that, definitely.
