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hi tuffers, arrived at the same place that i did several years ago, loads of potential but sadly more questions than answers.
several folks supplying VERY useful info (again many thanks, they know who) but i seem incapable of finding a format that turns potential into consistant profit, not seeking a fortune, just nice steady profit on turnover (aren`t we all ? )good luck with that ruby, usually confidence in certain quarters re tiger….
oneEye..re your comments about betting after the cut…..
quick bit of research last night…………
66% of tournement winners (pga + euro) were tied 3rd or better after the cut ???? perhaps obvious but still VERY interesting wouldn`t you agree ??even before his personal problems he was silly odds, at least if he`s in the field, everybody elses odds are longer ruby
all so very true oneEye, 150+ ronners most weeks, you can`t help but find some real value especially if you can shop around some.
managed a few winners last season but missed out on the double (pga & euro) in same week as that would have been the BIG result. but even the place bets can be very profitable.
do you work on a system basis or a personal fancy/knowledge to make initial selections ??many thanks oneEye, will certainly check it out, as for 100/1+ winners, i think it is part of the attraction as always a minimum of 5 places up for grabs
WINNERSFORU…..u r a star, that has given me plenty to work on (scratch my head i mean). comparison between these and previous figures are interesting..tuffers comments about placed horses becomes even more relevent ? thanks again
TUFFERS…only reason i concentrate on `winners` is to limit the range of any search. i totally agree with your comments re placed horses etc but this `system` if i`m not careful can develop a life of its own and become completely unmanagable(as it did in previous incarnation) admittidly i had no acces to internet etc in those days but even now my own IT limitations restrict me from total exploration….lol
like the idea of `+` in preference to `p` tuffers but timeform cost is prohibitive at this stage.
winnersforu & discetedata…could your figures incorporate..(same as before)(min winner of last two races) `and` BHA official h/c rating for last win resulting in +7lb/10lb/14lb rise
would that even be possible ??thankyou discretedata, that will help and is very interesting.
does anyone have any suggestions for useful sites re all individual racehorse RATINGS ? (not RACE ratings) in particular rise/fall of each horses rating from one run to the next (min last 2 runs) preferably non-subscription at this stage, grateful as always… `searcher`
only one of interest on sunday
leopardstown 3.50 Ephorusmany thanks winnersforu, excellent effort !!
i do remember that on a/w, sequence horses are more common and odds often more restrictive, which may explain the percentages to some degree. (high % of odds on etc.)
as for billions question re profitability…..it now becomes more complex.
there is certainly a basis for a system perhaps based on improvement in ratings rather than relying on RP spotlights term `progressive`. my search for guidelines was always aimed at knocking out LOSERS, not just highlighting WINNERS.
looking at tomorrows runners..likeliest look to be..
haydock 3.15 king fontaine N/R
others worth a look…
ascot 1.50 l`accordioniste
haydock 2.40 wymott N/R
wincanton 2.50 requin
please understand these are not tips at this stage as this is very much in the developement stage(again) therefore win or lose this can only be looked at as a learning curve (for me )
thanks againseveral years ago i went thru 3 years of results using superform (end of season books). over that period the strike rate averaged approx 20% but included odds-on winners too, which as a personal choice i never back, problem was linking RP `progressive` comment previous results of 2/3/+ time winners and thus being more selective. as previously said, work commitments finally put paid to this system before it got fair trial but always thought there was something to work with. i have about 6 weeks to try to evolve it before work restarts, was hoping for some good ideas to help before that happens. once guidelines settled on it will be easy to trial, qualifier should have won minimum of last 2 races and be mentioned as `progressive` in RP spotlight, simple so far. but too simple ??? LORD LANSING..lingfield 3.05 would be worth consideration, i`m not a fan of a/w and not a strong enough mention in RP to put up as a bet but its this type the system is based on.
good decision to leave alone in the end as lord lansing lost.thanks billion, when tried before my starting position was runners who had won minimum of last two starts and were noted in racing post spotlight as `PROGRESSIVE` under correct circumstances, pretty good win percentage, as most were up in class/weight/both, their sp was often much better than expected for 2+ time winner, problems for me arose when factoring guidelines ie. how high a jump in class ( d-c/b e-d/c/b ) etc c, d, going, ratings, speed figs, only seemed to cloud the issue, even tried to build in some vdw principals but then work got in way but now have time to reasess. basic principal of `progressive` horses is sound as(assuming recent run) form/fitness guaranteed. back to tinkering and head scratching i suppose.
