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The Vincent O’Brien biogrpahy co written by his wife was very good with some good insight.
Would agree on the Henry Cecil book being underwhelming. I always enjoyed Cecils interviews and observations on horses so was expecting a lot more with the access Brough Scott had with him but have tried and failed a number of times to finish it. Its currently staring back at me on a shelf as I write this
I started ”Doped”by Jamie Reid a few days ago which won the William Hill sports book of the year in 2013, it looks promising enough so far but have only read a few chapters
28 days sounded on the high side when first hearing it but would imagine its more effective to have deterrents such as a ban rather than relying on the personal pride of the jockey for it to not happen again.
Theres roughly 12 seconds in a furlong in this case the rider stopped riding after 6, it would sound like a basic error to make.
Whats somewhat surprising is how infrequent things like this actually happen, or maybe they do and get buried in horses finishing down the fieldNo love lost between Michael Grassick (CEO of the trainers association) and Jim Bolger (referred to as ”the gentleman” in the public eye by all) who apparently gave up his membership of the associatian in March (it was quoted only 9 of about 350 trainers in Ireland are not members)
The questioning of the IHRB is much better than the first part
Considering he went through Mick Kinane, Jamie Spencer and Johnny Murtagh I’d imagine he is very clear in his views away from the cameras
Good piece by Kevin Blake on this in his column earlier in the week
The point around the relative levels of sensitivity being tested for between LCH labs in France v Newmarket related to the GAIN zilpaterol feed case last October is something that intuitively raises questions related to testing in both jurisdictions
Four of the top ten races for betting turnover in 2020 were on the fourth day of the festival with the gold cup/triumph hurdle showing up in the top 5 for 2018/2019/2020
https://www.hblb.org.uk/page/70
Personally Ive found the first 3 days significantly more profitable for backing than the 4th
Nick Luck did a good piece on his daily podcast around the issues raised in the article today with Lydia Hislop, includes an interview with Bolger
“Can the op confirm if tbis is the sane article from last year, which would mean Jim Bolger hasnt actually said anything new about the claims he made last year.”
Its a new interview, the same issues have been raised previously and not answered which is why the topic has come up again.
The points raised above around disparity in treatment of the topic between UK/Irish jurisdictions might have some validity. In practice, GB,Irish and French runners cross pollinate in competition not infrequently, at least at the higher levels, so if the claims made are serious and valid then should be of interest to all 3 governing bodies (and beyond)Is there a quarantine issue for British based jockeys why Moore/Frankie aren’t in France tomorrow?
Re: Moore being on the so called right/wrong horse, the Ballydoyle job / any top stable job will present the same issues, the talent is in the choices and its difficult to be correct 100% of the time. Frankie rode neither Enable / Golden Horn in some of their prep runs before they went on to win G1’s, what does that mean? that if the data is backfitted now he made the wrong choice in those instances? or he made the correct choice because he switched on them in their next start? or it says neither, his job is to ride the horse with perceived best form and shortest in the betting and he needs to concentrate on maintaining his quality of riding and he will be on them when they are a clear form pick?
I’d imagine a jockey could rationalise all three scenariosOnly a matter of time before Colin Keane becomes stable jockey at Ballydoyle, will be able to ride work daily when the job is his. Ryan Moore is riding as well as ever but the stage has been set in the last cpl of years
In comparison to the paper version there is some value in the price if going with the online subscription however all points mentioned above are valid.
As a news aggregator it is probably still the market leader in the Uk/Ire albeit the content is generally quite superficial. Im sure there is some research based data to inform the RP’s general strategy for content they are challenging their staff to provide and engagement through their media platforms however.On a side note, as a formbook there is surely some potential for data mining customer usage via the sponsor/bookmaker relationship of the site.
What value and how to interpret the value of such data might be open for question but if a sportsbook can see when an account has entered a stake on a betslip without clicking submit and, in theory, adjust the odds then there is a possible space to do some work on things like customer horse tracker/ analysis of traffic for particular racesMoore is presumably advised on what to ride by APOB as he doesnt ride work in Ballydoyle daily.
The horses he rides may potentially be described as the percentage call, prior to the race, on what, with a long term view could ultimately become the best horse in the race, but not necessarily on the day.In my opinion, and I have no basis for this other than it being a potential factor in a market with limited information, the arrangement above would potentially suit the specific ownership arrangement Coolmore have in place with their partners rather than the mounts Moore takes up having the highest % strike rate of their jockeys
I remember seeing Kieren Fallon interviewed by Clare Balding a few years ago now and he said Newmarket has more drug use per head of the population than any town in Europe. Not sure if that is true but it has clearly been a problem in the town for years.
I can just imagine Fallon going around Newmarket with a clipboard carrying out his research
From the report in the RP the hair test was only carried out following the video released last month.
A c.1,000% difference in stable size between yards taking a very crude 5 yr avg for no. horses ran since May 2016 (previous – 23.6 p/yr v current -261.2 p/yr)
A q re: impact to potential strike rate would intuitively appear valid if assuming the above at face value and the residual impact of Elliotts previous training, in theory, decreased over time while the new trainers impact gradually,in theory, increases
Mrs Denise Foster: May 2016:May 2021
Category: winners / horses
Hurdle: 10/71
Chase: 4/27
NHF: 3/20
TOTAL: 17/118Gordon Elliott: May 2016:May 2021
Category: winners / horses
Hurdle: 307/658
Chase: 131/318
NHF: 141/330
TOTAL: 579/1306Promo video on the Elliott website gives an idea on the scale of yard/operation
The Henrietta Knight book is very good and well worth a read. Short snapshot chapters visiting each of the trainers yards, have passed it around to a few friends who enjoyed it also.
For starters you could take any rating you like, for instance an official handicap rating, Timeform rating, speedfigure, Proform power rating, a combination of a few etc, convert to a probability then compare and contrast to the SP.
There is quite a lot in that for horse racing due to a number of factors and the video below might be useful as an intro or give food for thought on where to go around modelling factors to generate a rating used to price
The issue with creating your own rating, while there will be definite educational benefit, the market will likely either have factored it or be primed to factor it over time. Taking a step back and understanding why and to what degree the rating is a factor for price in a particular market/markets will be of benefit which you should keep in mind more so than the pure scientific exercise, at least initially anyway
