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I guessed there was going to be about 10-12 finishers in the Foxhunters, but to see a number as low as 9 was rather surprising, so right now my guess for the National is about 13 finishers.
I am a little surprised with Timmy’s choice.
Might seem strange, but:
With his jumping and record in the race, I believe Comply Or die has a better chance of placing than The Package. Yet with the excellant handicap mark, The Package has a better chance of winning than Comply Or die.Have saved on Comply Or Die at 25/1. May well do the same with The Package if he drifts further.
Comply Or Die won’t start at 25′. He might be 20’s in the morning, but he will go off around the 16 mark on the off…
Surprised it took Timmy Murphy so long to decide to ride COD. 1st and 2nd in the last 2 nationals; surely it was a no brainer
Hard to get off COD I suppose but Ruby passed up Snowy
Morning to stay loyal to Hedgehunter in 2008 – pretty close to egg on face.I think Comply Or Die was really the only option for Murphy. Whn a horse has done for you as much as he has for Timmy; staying loyal is just a given, like Walsh to Hedgehunter, G Lee to Amberleigh House etc…
My list is.
Palypso de creek
Ollie Magern
Beat the Boys
Cerium
Erics Charm
Royal Rosa (if he gets in)Erics Charm is one i was sorely tempted by and is probably one i’m going to turn to on the day
My final picks are…
51U-02 Black Apalachi 11-6
– He clearly loves it round Aintree and was running too well last year to ignore. His weight is a worry, but i have full confidence that he can carry it. Another worry is that he lands steeply at times (which i even guessed would get him in trouble at Becher’s last year). His price is getting a bit too low for comfort too, but that’s not a legit reason to go against him.
12187 Ellerslie George 10-10
– A year ago i wouldn’t have even given this one a second look, but when he got me a heartbreaking second before taking the Badger Ales; the National sprung straight to mind. I knew he had disappointed over the course on two occasions, but he’s clearly improved this season, despite his last two starts not being up to par. He is really nicely weighted too.
735U87 Hello Bud 10-6
– He has been out of form this season, but his Scottish National win along with his convincing Cheltenham run in November and his good showing in the Becher, despite the trip being way too short for him, is enough for me to believe he has what it takes. His attractive weight also makes him an obvious choice.
PP462F Knowhere 10-4
– I’ve always liked this one, but i was very close to turning away, but the way he ran in the veterans chase 2 starts ago was too irresistible to ignore. He has the class to win and has a very winnable weight on his back. He was coming into it before coming down in 08 when he had 11-11 on his back; with 21lbs less i really believe he can make the frame, even at 12.
395467 Ollie Magern 10-9
– Again a classy runner with a winnable weight. The numbers next to his name may not seem too appealing, but the way he has been finishing seems to be screaming to me that 1; he’s still got a spark and 2; a further trip will suit beautifully.
780U0 Preists Leap 11-0
– If being a dual Thyestes winner (a race also won by Hedgehunter and Numbersixvalverde) isn’t enough; he was running like a charm last year before getting injured. I was let down with his unseating at the first in the Bobbyjo Chase where i think he would have come very close. The weight isn’t as appealing as one would prefer, but i would give him a serious shout.
I’ll be disappointed if Knowhere doesn’t make the cut, but i’d be bitterly disappointed if old Silver Birch just doesn’t make it. The ulitmate swan song for a great horse would be a good showing on Saturday.
I’m as stubborn as they come, so i still have my fingers crossed that the forecast’s are all wrong and there is infact a cluster of rain coming for us come Saturday.
Wonder if the Wilsons would want to take out Mr Pointment to allow Cerium in. Suspect they may both get a run yet though.
They should both get in… though i would easily pick Mr Pointment over Cerium…
Knowhere’s nearly there!
as hinted in the weather prediction models over the last few days, looking increasingly likely that come Wednesday drier conditions will be upon us.
Warming up as well, so come National day Aintree could’ve had at least a couple of days of drying conditions.
Is it a quick drying course?
Those thinking of placing bets on soft/heavy performers may want to just wait and see.Apparently it’s a quick drying course, but it’s going to be taking a hell of a lot of rain before the drier weather, so i’m not discounting a soft National quite yet…
Did anyone else see Nick Mordin’s weekender piece this week. Glad to see he has my idea of which rank outsider reaching the frame. Old Mr Pointment. 141 lengths last in the Gold Cup was a beautiful prep run! Absolutely loves the place and I am praying that old Pak Jack gets his chance, although very unlikely.
Mr Pointment has had my eye for a long time. I was very disappointed when he wasn’t given an entry last year, but it seems to me that Mrs Wilson, for the first time in her life, has a solid lineup!
And Cerium beating the then National favorite home in the Gold Cup is a statement in itself too.
Red Marauder’s jumping was…. just God awful, yet he got given his chance on two occasions and hello? He won. Sure there are a few underlining factors that led to his win, but it’s looking like a similar National this year… Knowhere is one of my favorite horses so i’m naturally bias…
Think they’re clutching at straws with Preists Leap. Yes, he’s best on soft ground, but his jumping has gone to pot this season, even on soft ground.
Interesting about Ellerslie George, that Wincanton form has worked out supremely well. Has been behind in both the Topham and Becher though, so is he suited to Aintree?
He blundered at the first on both of his times at Aintree, but then he went on to complete each time, so it’s just a matter of getting the first one right.
Plus he was in a different stable back then who thought he was best held up, whereas he’s proven to be better at the front of affairs…
11,4? How embarrassing
I did mean 10,4…Ellerslie George and Preists Leap are definite entries from what i’ve read…
I just honestly don’t see anyone below 11,4 getting in. Best hope is a reserve spot…
No, Unlike you lot, I’m not a Grand National nerd.
But being a National nerd is the best!
I did mean 10,4…
