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not that i see anything wrong with timmy murphy……..but like i said they have changed a few things with the horse. if you saw the hennessy you would have noticed A) he was ridden by new jockey daryl jacob, and B) he was ridden prominently up with denman the whole way – over 3m2f in softish ground in a competitive top class handicap, so im not sure stamina will be an issue either
The ask is massive when you consider horses who win both don’t carry 10 stone in the Hennessy.
Mill House 12st, Arkle 12st7lbs, Burroughill Lad 12st, Bregawn 11st 10lbs and of course Denman 11st12 (2)
Stalbridge Colonist 10st went close One man and Teeton Mill 10st5lbs both turned out to be brilliant horses but on the whole it is a amssive step up to expect from any horse.
The thing about Dirty Harry is we know what he is already and you can’t really expect massive improvement from him.
He’s flat track bully is Harry and Cheltenham isn’t his course IMO too easy to get him off the bridle and he’s very one paced when you do.
Additional weight undulating track faster than a speeding bullet pace. I can’t see it.
he has won at cheltenham folks! cant expect any improvement as we know what he is allready ? are you on acid ? hes only had 4 chase runs you nutter, and his improvement to win the hennessy was gigantic in terms of the way he settled and his jumping was miles better. they have also put a new jockey on board and new tactics with him racing more prominently. i thought for the last two seasons his problem has been he doesnt take his racing so well and has been a spent force by the time he reached cheltenham – especially last year, and by going there fresh hopefully he will alleviate that aspect. he also found plenty for pressure when a staying on 3rd behind mdh and karabak over hurdles ( hardly bad form is it ?) and when winning over fences at newbury last year, so thats not a worry for me. wether he’s good enough to win is one thing but i think he will pose a definite threat and 12/1 a very fair price in a year with no standout candidate.
fair point, oscar whisky was only having his 4th run of his life, dunguib wouldnt get near him now. i was really referring to all the poor novice hurdlers he was trouncing over and over in ireland last year before getting beaten when having to jump at pace the first time. he’s 8yo now and had too many runs to eek out sufficient improvement to get near the 1st 3 in a champion. id fancy him more against big bucks than i would against binocular et al
cue card a cert for the supreme if he runs. rock on ruby is mega progressive and must be followed – i think he should be fav for the neptune – solid form in bumpers and very impressive 1st hurdle run beating 2 solid yard sticks. zaidpour cant jump and wants to go right handed so has no chance at cheltenham – most overhyped novice in training. dunraven storm should be 100/1 backspin looks good too and will be a threat – jonjos novice hurdle record at the festival is exceptional he doesnt run anything that doesnt place and the folk on here slagging him off want their heads examining. wichita lineman, bjk both won easy, gmooh unlucky 2nd keen leader fell when would have won rhinestone 3rd in ch as novice. cant remember him running anything else
cant have dunguib at all. he’s beaten trees all his life and cant jump, the jock took too much stick last year by folk who did their money, all last years irish novices were poor by normal standards – he was just the best of them. cue card has nearly got as close to menorah as he did and he has only had 3 starts.
i think cue card will finish nearer to menorah than last time, i dont believe he stopped, just thought he got done for toe at a crucial stage and he kept on well for 2nd imho a stronger gallop will defo suit, and i cant belive folk are writing him off allready. if he were to reproduce that run in the supreme he would win 10 lengths. still think binocular the one to beat. in 3 championship races round chelts he’s got better and better each time and you know he will be lots better than these jog and sprint trial races – hes proven, and jumps better than anything in the field, which is a trait people dont focus enough on in this race for example hurricane fly maybe the second coming but hes never had to jump and travel as fast as will be required and his overall form does not match up to binoculars cheltenham form yet, but to be fair he has yet to have the opportunity, but on balance i think binocular should be favourite and will win
hi, im paul.
great to find more like minded folk here and looking forward to giving and gaining insight as we go on. equally at home with both codes but nh edges it for me, cant wait for the season to get in to full swing. not a massive stakes punter but im hoping to get away from mug punting this season and do things properly
