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Monday Jan 2nd 2012 – Southwell 1215 (5f Hcap)
Model Output
Nafa (4.25), Gorgeous Goblin (7.43), Fear Nothing (9.76), Argentine (11.20), Tancred Spirit (12.4), Skylla (13.4), Sharp Shoes (13.6), Striking Willow (15.05), Divertimenti (20.73), Steel City Boy (26.83), Flow Chart (34.16), Egyptian Lord (35.31).
Pretty low grade stuff at Southwell….Urghh what’s new? I quite rightly hear you cry. Why would anyone even waste their time with it? In my case it has been approximately 2hrs and counting!! Anyway, for me personally the reasons are several. Firstly, at this time of year there isn’t much else for me to study considering I only ever bet in sprint handicaps (bar the odd misdemeanour). Secondly, I’m clinging to the logic that if many people prefer to dismiss them as bookies’ fodder then there will be more markets formed with less ‘shrewd’ money, theoretically giving me more chance of an edge. Also, to paraphrase the famous poem, when they are bad they are horrid! Meaning it isn’t rare to find a large proportion of the field that should be plying their trade a long way from any race track (even a fibresand one in January). Hopefully this particular race is one of those instances.
I can’t see many horses hiding away or that will suddenly dramatically improve. SHARP SHOES maybe one but although showing improved form LTO after a sluggish start, on balance he hasn’t convinced me enough that he will reach the level of his better form on turf or at Southwell this time last year – if he does he’s well up to this (it’s barely a horse race) – I think there was some money for him last time from memory – he could be an obvious one after the race has finished! ARGENTINE is in decent enough form for this, running behind a well handicapped fibresand horse, Wreningham last time here. He’ll be popular but I’d prefer to stick with the model and focus attention on NAFA and GORGEOUS GOBLIN.
NAFA is unexposed on this surface and ran well here last time, showing decent enough speed after a break. I don’t think his trainer has had a massively good record with runners off a break so I’m hoping that if he’s come on a few pounds for the run, he has just enough scope for improvement to go well here today anything in the 7/2, 4/1 ball park will interest me. Admittedly, this kind of price is perhaps a little skinny but my model says 3/1 and there is a lot of dross in the race.
Which ever way I look at it GORGEOUS GOBLIN’s form on fibresand is solid to me for this kind of race. He isn’t going to improve and I should probably be avoiding long standing maidens as betting propositions, but sometimes ‘solid’ is enough against ‘horrid’. He will definitely be a hindsight horse what ever his performance backed or unbacked!! If his double figure price holds on betfair I will be tempted perhaps with a view to laying off in running.
CONCLUSION:
1pt win NAFA 7/2+
1/2pt win GORGEOUS GOBLIN 10/1+RESULT:
1st Even Stevens 11/4
2nd Mottley Crewe 5/1
3rd Six Wives 11/2Staked 0pts: Profit 0pts
A forecast for the model. There would be times where this would be a sickner with nothing invested. However, value is ‘king’ if I am to succeed and my model said there wasn’t much of that. Reitterated by the fact the market got it right with the 1st and 2nd Favs finishing where they should.I’ll take the result as a positive.
(N.B Time of post was 13:15 five mins before the off not 14:15 as shown!). Will post late evening night before or early morning when I’m more prepared.
Sunday Jan 1st 2012 – Southwell 1320 (5f Hcap)
Model Output
Even Stevens (6.4), Mottley Crewe (6.55), Monsieur Jamie (6.64), Six Wives (6.81), What About You (7.09), Sleepy Blue Ocean (8.99), Falasteen (13.9), Captain Scooby (14.49).
An open looking handicap if ever there was one and rarely are the model’s odds so compressed. Really strikes me as a race with no edge for a punter and should be left well alone. Usually it has paid for me to focus on the first and second favourites in terms of my model output but there are no less than 5 horses within half a point of each other! The figures in brackets represent my decimal odds for the race. EVEN STEVENS was very destructive in his latest win over C&D and left the impression he had more to come in races like this – he wasn’t really stretched to my eye. That performance came in a race which was probably the strongest race of its type on the fibresand in recent weeks. He is a worthy favourite but I cannot take his current price (best 3/1). MOTTLEY CREWE has been running well in recent weeks and is probably a little overpriced still at 7/1. A fizzy, highly strung character and has shown signs of doing a little too much too soon for me to be confident in a race like this and there are a lot of horses who like to force the pace. Removal of blinkers last time didn’t appear to calm him down as he broke the gate and was withdrawn when well fancied at Kempton! Did have to be switched when just touched off by SLEEPY BLUE OCEAN in his last run before his aborted Kempton trip although both of those appeared to be fully extended that day and hard to know how much more improvement is possible on those performances. Certainly there appears less scope for improvement from the latter though one thing in his favour today appears to be an excess of pace in today’s race – could the race be set up for something coming later? It usually pays to be handy over C&D though. As decent as he is, I’m doubtful MONSIEUR JAMIE will improve enough to be considered a bet here and seemed easily brushed aside by Even Stevens last time. SIX WIVES was impressive last time but in a much weaker race and although she had plenty in hand that day, will she be put under too much pressure early in a much stronger race today? WHAT ABOUT YOU would seem to have a reasonable chance on form, particularly if taking to the course. His last effort, unless I missed something, was worryingly limp in the context of today’s race. FALASTEEN wins today if running to the level of his best turf form. He is either hot or cold however and I can’t imagine the temperamental ones enjoy Southwell too much. Has a break to overcome (though trainer’s record off a break is quite good) and has not previously been as effective away from the turf. CAPTAIN SCOOBY was an eye catcher in his last two races for me not really having much room two runs back and running on quite well last time without too much persuasion on Polytrack. Can’t say I’m a big fan of the jockey today though and this is tougher.
CONCLUSION: Minefield, will leave alone and not make the New Year hangover any worse. Perhaps a strange way to end the first post, but I can’t see an edge for me and have no strong opinions on value. Learning to walk away from races like this will be a useful trait to develop over the coming months.
Thanks Chaps. I emailed Timeform and their copy is locked away in safe storage….they advised that you’d only have any chance of getting a copy through specialist book dealers as it’s so rare (Mr Kelly (Ned)) may have stumbled on some ‘value’ of the ebay variety).
I wasn’t expecting any magical hidden truths being 70 years old (the book that is) but have seen it cited by plenty and I enjoy reading about punting regardless, so was intrigued.
The British Library holds a copy and I’m trying to organise a viewing as Im based in London. Apparently there’s just a few small challenges/mazes/fire breathing dragons akin to Indinana Jones and the Last Crusade to pass through on the way to the reading room. Should be fine.
Hey, many thanks for the words – some interesting points – I like the observations of each horse having different weightings of preferences – not necessarily constant across the population. I will chew on that for sure. Allow me to put up a counter argument too. Spend a few mins reading up on the Hong Kong Syndicates (Bill Benter etc) who employ just such models based on the ideas printed in (Chapman and Bolton) paper ‘Searching for positive returns at the race track’ –or something to that effect. Interesting stuff and touched a nerve for me.
With regards the human v computer issue. I would argue that the sorts of human processes you describe can be coded in a program and in a crude way they are already in mine – i.e a parameter such as pace being affected by other parameters such as field size/draw/going etc. To use your example, a computer could predict how many front runners are likely in today’s race and then analyse over thousands of past races how such a ‘shape’ affected results (ie favouring hold up horses etc and to what extent) this will be affected by the course/going/field size etc etc all of which can be accounted for in the process. Whether they know it or not, I’m sure successful punters will follow ‘routines’ as above and many of those could be coded as such. I approached the coding of some parameters by recording exactly what I would do manually to determine the info I require…from form/ratings etc then get the computer to copy. There are pro’s and cons for both – more flexibility from the human without doubt…but more consistency of approach (useful if its a successful approach!) from the machine unaffected by emotion…the computer able to digest much more data as well of course.
The hardcore statistical methods written about in some of the references above do appear to be a robust, mathematically sound basis for eliminating some (not all) of the uncertainty in the data which you rightfully point out is a big barrier to analysis. Don’t quite grasp the pure mathematical/statistical theories enough to begin thinking about seeing how it could be applied. Just wondered if there was anyone out there who did.
Do you keep records of your odds and the edge they give?
Cheers