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MTOTO88

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Viewing 17 posts - 69 through 85 (of 349 total)
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  • July 11, 2019 at 15:36 in reply to: Ginger's Winners #1448259
    MTOTO88
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    • Total Posts 350

    Cheers GT

    July 11, 2019 at 15:02 in reply to: Ginger's Winners #1448254
    MTOTO88
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    • Total Posts 350

    Masar (1.96) is being well-backed GT and Mirage Dancer (4.20) drifting. Would you advise top up bets based on this info?

    July 11, 2019 at 14:31 in reply to: Ginger's Winners #1448247
    MTOTO88
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    • Total Posts 350

    Doh!!! Toyed with a place lay as well

    July 11, 2019 at 14:26 in reply to: Ginger's Winners #1448244
    MTOTO88
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    • Total Posts 350

    Layed Visinari at 1.75

    July 10, 2019 at 22:22 in reply to: Ginger's Winners #1448198
    MTOTO88
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    • Total Posts 350

    GT, I know you like Visinari but is he too short at around 2.00

    June 29, 2019 at 16:42 in reply to: Ginger's Winners #1447290
    MTOTO88
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    • Total Posts 350

    Thanks GT. I should have mentioned that I have not already backed Madmoon. So I will take your advice and lay AVB to cover stakes on Broome and Rakan as that appears to be the better value option. GL :good:

    June 29, 2019 at 11:56 in reply to: Ginger's Winners #1447244
    MTOTO88
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    • Total Posts 350

    GT, is Madmoon still value at 3/1 or would you advise laying AVD at around 11/8

    June 27, 2019 at 21:26 in reply to: 2019 TRF Flat Ten To Follow Competition #1447072
    MTOTO88
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    • Total Posts 350

    Hi GT, please find my 2nd sub.

    Blue Point OUT
    Crystal Ocean
    Enable ***STAR***
    Ghaiyyath
    Qabala
    Sharja Bridge OUT
    Siyarafina
    Stradivarius
    Ten Sovereigns
    Too Darn Hot

    Beat The Bank ***RESERVE*** IN
    Japan ***RESERVE*** IN

    June 23, 2019 at 10:38 in reply to: 2019 TRF Flat Ten To Follow Competition #1446783
    MTOTO88
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    • Total Posts 350

    Cheers for the update GT

    June 22, 2019 at 13:13 in reply to: Ginger's Winners #1446657
    MTOTO88
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    • Total Posts 350

    Is the place lay of Emblazoned to reduce liabilities on the race or a value call?

    June 22, 2019 at 13:06 in reply to: Ginger's Winners #1446649
    MTOTO88
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    • Total Posts 350

    Thanks for the update, GT :good:

    June 21, 2019 at 19:04 in reply to: Ginger's Winners #1446436
    MTOTO88
    Participant
    • Total Posts 350

    Thanks GT, apologies for gatecrashing your thread with my idle ramblings. The W/O FAV market is one I have meant to look at in more detail but have never taken time to look at the maths involved.

    June 21, 2019 at 16:22 in reply to: Ginger's Winners #1446400
    MTOTO88
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    • Total Posts 350

    A SLIGHTLY EASIER METHOD

    A = FAV’S BETTING PERCENTAGE. IN OUR EXAMPLE 6/4 = 40%
    B = HORSES ODDS X1. IN OUR EXAMPLE 7/1 X1 = 8.00

    (100% – A) X B

    (100%-40%) X 8.00 = 0.60 X 8.00 = 4.80

    June 21, 2019 at 16:14 in reply to: Ginger's Winners #1446397
    MTOTO88
    Participant
    • Total Posts 350

    OK THANKS :good:

    SO IF I TRY YOU TURN THAT INTO A BASIC FORMULA, WHERE

    A = FAV’S BETTING PERCENTAGE. IN OUR EXAMPLE 6/4 = 40%
    B = HORSES FAIR CHANCE BETTING PERCENTAGE. IN OUR EXAMPLE 7/1 = 12.50%

    FORMULA BECOMES

    ___1___ X B
    (100-A)

    ___1___ X .125 0.2083 = 4.80
    0.60

    WHICH IS WHAT I SOMEHOW GOT EARLIER

    June 21, 2019 at 14:46 in reply to: Ginger's Winners #1446371
    MTOTO88
    Participant
    • Total Posts 350

    IS THIS ABOUT RIGHT?

    DECIMALS ODDS X (100% – BETTING% OF THE MARKET FAV) = W/O FAV ODDS

    EG 6/4 FAV AND CALCULATING W/O FAV ODDS FOR A 7/1 SHOT

    6/4 40%
    7/1 = 8.00 = 12.5%

    8.00 X (100% – 40%) = 8 X 0.60 4.80

    June 21, 2019 at 14:43 in reply to: Ginger's Winners #1446370
    MTOTO88
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    • Total Posts 350

    GT, is there a mathematical method to calculate odds for horses in Without Fav markets? I presume something like Rule 4 or even better using the betting percentage from the current Betfair odds

    So for an easy example

    Evens Fav (50%)

    A 3/1 shot becomes Evens fav

    Though I am a bit unsure how to calculate other examples

    June 20, 2019 at 22:49 in reply to: Ginger's Winners #1446258
    MTOTO88
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    • Total Posts 350

    Why have you gone off Japan and topped up more on Pondus?

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