[MTOTO88]

Hi GT, please find my 2nd sub.

Blue Point OUT
Crystal Ocean
Enable ***STAR***
Ghaiyyath
Qabala
Sharja Bridge OUT
Siyarafina
Stradivarius
Ten Sovereigns
Too Darn Hot

Beat The Bank ***RESERVE*** IN
Japan ***RESERVE*** IN

[MTOTO88]

Cheers for the update GT

[MTOTO88]

Is the place lay of Emblazoned to reduce liabilities on the race or a value call?

[MTOTO88]

Thanks for the update, GT

[MTOTO88]

Thanks GT, apologies for gatecrashing your thread with my idle ramblings. The W/O FAV market is one I have meant to look at in more detail but have never taken time to look at the maths involved.

[MTOTO88]

A SLIGHTLY EASIER METHOD

A = FAV’S BETTING PERCENTAGE. IN OUR EXAMPLE 6/4 = 40%
B = HORSES ODDS X1. IN OUR EXAMPLE 7/1 X1 = 8.00

(100% – A) X B

(100%-40%) X 8.00 = 0.60 X 8.00 = 4.80

[MTOTO88]

OK THANKS

SO IF I TRY YOU TURN THAT INTO A BASIC FORMULA, WHERE

A = FAV’S BETTING PERCENTAGE. IN OUR EXAMPLE 6/4 = 40%
B = HORSES FAIR CHANCE BETTING PERCENTAGE. IN OUR EXAMPLE 7/1 = 12.50%

FORMULA BECOMES

___1___ X B
(100-A)

___1___ X .125 0.2083 = 4.80
0.60

WHICH IS WHAT I SOMEHOW GOT EARLIER

[MTOTO88]

IS THIS ABOUT RIGHT?

DECIMALS ODDS X (100% – BETTING% OF THE MARKET FAV) = W/O FAV ODDS

EG 6/4 FAV AND CALCULATING W/O FAV ODDS FOR A 7/1 SHOT

6/4 40%
7/1 = 8.00 = 12.5%

8.00 X (100% – 40%) = 8 X 0.60 4.80

[MTOTO88]

GT, is there a mathematical method to calculate odds for horses in Without Fav markets? I presume something like Rule 4 or even better using the betting percentage from the current Betfair odds

So for an easy example

Evens Fav (50%)

A 3/1 shot becomes Evens fav

Though I am a bit unsure how to calculate other examples

[MTOTO88]

Why have you gone off Japan and topped up more on Pondus?

[MTOTO88]

Sorry GT, I didn’t even to get on as it’s a waste of time

[MTOTO88]

Sorry GT – 11/10 not shown on OddsChecker but it is a Skybet Boost price – still available

[MTOTO88]

Looks like the 11/10 has gone already

[MTOTO88]

Do you like your Leger pick Constantinople here GT?

[MTOTO88]

Had to lay Questionaire to place as well Questionare2.10£350.00£385.00

[MTOTO88]

This lay must have got matched during the last race Questionare4.50£230.00£805.00

[MTOTO88]

Almost 5 outa 5. Hit 1.36 in running. You called it right GT. Led all the way bar last 50 metres

[Author]

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