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Curragh 4.20 1m4f Group 1 Yielding
Fame and Glory starts as favourite and its easy to see why – 4 wins in a row followed by a 2nd in the Derby to Sea The Stars and trained by Aidan O Brien who has won this race 5 times in 10 years, including the last 3 years although when he has half the field in a race he should be winning these races. It is by no means a one horse race though so taking evens about the horse is not for me.
Byzantine won a maiden and then finished last on both its next two starts, it’s 500-1 and a no hoper, more chance of Elvis turning up at the Curragh riding Shergar than this winning.
Loch Long is also 500-1, still a maiden and has failed to win races worth around 8k so far and looks outclassed and without hope in this race.
Rockhampton is possibly O Briens 4th string, has won two lesser contests, both as favourite but looks outclassed in Group 1 company. May get a place and surprise a few.
Drumbeat has not won for the last 8 races but has some form in Group races, the best being a 1/2 length second to Fame and Glory at Saint Cloud but it has been a well beaten 8th and 6th on its last 2 starts and looks exposed at this level.
The Bull Hayes is a 50-1 shot and does not look like a possible Group 1 winner. It has been well beaten by Rockhampton, Sea The Stars and Masterofthehorse and there is no reason it would reverse form today.
Recharge was beaten easily in the Irish 2000 Guineas and has only raced over 8f but there is not a lot of stamina from the sire Cape Cross (8.5f) and no reason to believe it will get a 1m4f trip in a Group 1 race, unfancied today.
Golden Sword is yet another O Brien runner and it was 5th in the Derby but lost a few places in the final furlong. It has beaten Masterofthehorse over 12f by 2 lengths yet this one is 12-1 and Masterofthehorse is coser to 3-1. It was only 4th in a Group 2 and does not look like the stables main hope.
Mourayan has been beaten by Fame and Glory twice already and has not run since finishing 2nd behind it by 5 lengths in a Derby trial at Leopardstown. Hard to see that reversing form even if it runs better than last time out. John Oxx’s first choice now that Sea The Stars doesn’t run and now tried with 1st time blinkers.
Masterofthehorse looks to be the O Brien 2nd string and was 3rd in the Derby, only beaten 2l and only a neck behind Fame and Glory. It definitely gets the trip and could go close today. Has been beaten by Gan Amhras but that was over 8f on its debut. Interesting runner and possible winner.
Gan Amhras has only raced once over 12f and was beaten over 18 lengths but did not act at Epsom and I feel that run has to be ignored. There is plenty of stamina in the pedigree and 12f should not be a problem. It was beaten 4l by Mourayan on its debut, then beat Masterofthehorse by 3l next time out. It was then 2nd in the Goffs Million, beating both Drumbeat and The Bull Hayes that both run in this race. It was 3rd in the 2000 Guineas but looked to be running on again at the end of the race and likely to benefit from a step up in trip on a track different to Epsom.
There should be no shortage of pace in this race with O Brien adopting his multiple runners tactics. I can see the finish involving one or two of his horses but feel you can not write off Gan Amhras based on its run at Epsom when it just did not act on the track at all yet still looks progressive enough to warrant another chance. Mourayan has been kept fresh since the Derby trial and while it needs to improve to reverse a 5l beating from Fame and Glory at 10-1 it looks to have each way possibilities and has an air of consistency, not being out of the first 3 since its debut run.
Sportingbet are a stand out 11-1 for Gan Amhras while other bookies go 8-1/9-1. Mourayan is 10-1 with the same firm but also with Stan James who go 1/4 odds rather than 1/5 odds. I’m not fully convinced by Masterofthehorse despite the pleasing run in the Derby and feel that at the prices available Mourayan and Gan Amhras are the value bets and Gan Amhras is one I see as a definite Group 1 winner at some point, possibly today.
Suggested Bets:
10pts EW Gan Amhras 11-1 Sporting Bet 1/5 odds 1st 3
5pts EW Mourayan 10-1 Stan James 1/4 odds 1st 3I don’t post much on here but often view the big race threads, some very good posters on here and for what it’s worth here are my thoughts on the race:
Curragh 3.05 Tattersalls Gold Cup
Moiqen looks outclassed and is easily opposed, form comments generally read one paced, struggling and weakened at the end of its races.
Lush Lashes is a very good horse but better form has been on good or firmer ground, one run on heavy saw it finish 7th of 9, I could see them pulling this out of the race as conditions are unlikely to suit.
Famous Name has won over 10f at Listed Level and was 2nd in a French Group 1 but generally seems to struggle to get its head in front and has many places at group level that were not wins as the horse simply wasn’t good enough on the day. It placed on heavy earlier in May behind Curtain Call but was beaten 3l and that was a Group 3 race.
Thewayyouare demands respect just from seeing the words AP O’Brien next to it and he had a very impressive winner in Mastercraftsman at this track under these conditions in the Irish 2000 Guineas. It had 4 wins in a row as a 2 yr old, including a French Group 1 but it was with Andre Fabre back then and was running over 1m. It has had 2 races over a further distance in Group 1 French races and finished 10th and 4th and had no excuses apart from not being good enough. It will have come on for its seasonal reappearance but still might struggle to beat Casual Conquest.
Casual Conquests form looks solid, it won over 7f on its 2yr old debut and then won a Grp 2 race over 10f by 6 lengths. It was 3rd in last years Derby at Epsom and winners from that race include New Approach, Tartan Bearer, Dr Fremantle, Curtain Call and Frozen Fire to name a few, all top class Group performers. It then turned out in the Irish Derby and was a 2l second to Frozen Fire with Tartan Bearer, Centennial and Curtain Call all behind. It’s seasonal reappearance was a farce with lots of non runners leaving just a 3 horse field and that form is weak, the winner Bronze Cannon had only ever won in handicap company before that race.
It travelled well for a long way and looked like it would win but I felt the ground was too firm and it needed some cut to see it at its best. 10f trip should be fine and on this ground they’ll probably need to get a bit further and this horse has the proven stamina over 12f but the required pace for 10f too. Ignoring that last run I make this the clear form pick and expect it to have another 1 on its formline after this race.
I don’t have too many concerns about the ground for Casual Conquest as I felt it didn’t go on firm ground at Newmarket and also wasn’t helped by the pace. I’d like to see Smullen kick early on the horse and make it a real stamina test rather than a crawl and a final sprint. I think the horse needs cut, this might be too soft but we’ll see.
Does anyone have any idea how much they are planning to charge for using the site in the near future and if it will be charged per racecard viewed or an annual/monthly fee? You will have to log in to view form etc and need to register to their members section but they are due to charge once they have got the site sorted out.
I am well off the pace here, but I watched Fonjacker for the first time about a fortnight ago and it is f**kin brilliant.
A variation on an old theme (Candid Camera), it is the most inspired comedy acting since Ali G first turned up on the 11 O’Clock Show.
I don’t cry with laughter too often but this has me in floods!
You can get the DVD of series 1 and 2 for £17.99 on Play.com. I ordered it the other day. Series 1 is about 12 quid and Series 2 is about the same price so £17.99 for both is pretty good. You can watch loads of the clips on youtube.
I downloaded some of them to my phone. Use http://www.mediaconverter.org and change format to 3gp, keep audio etc the same, convert the file, download it to your PC and then bluetooth it to your phone or use a USB cable. I keep laughing at the one where he is ringing someone and pretending to be from a dating agency based in India. This one:
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=DZpw2eTSolc
Welcome to TRF, Mowgli.
I would agree that it would be nice if MyWay found his way again, but I feel it is a possibility rather than a probability
Colin
I read some comments from Alan King (I think it was in Racing Post) that suggested there was that old sparkle back again. I’d like to see it run first and decide but could go for the World Hurdle again if that is the case.
1st post here so be gentle.
What do you guys think of Star De Mohaison from the Nicholls yard and it’s chances of winning the 2009 Cheltenham Gold Cup?
I think it was originally aimed at the 2008 Gold Cup but had injury problems and got withdrawn at the last minute. It was a young progressive chaser before injury and I’ve had a nibble at 95.0 on Betfair. All the focus seems to be on Kauto, Denman and Neptune Collonges and this has become somewhat a forgotten horse.
Looking forward to the jumps season and it will be interesting to see if My Way De Solzen can find the spark of old.