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Irish Derby 2009

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  • #11645
    RedRiot
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    • Total Posts 870

    Well looks like we will get to see, Sea The Stars at The Curragh later this month.

    He’ll go off a massive odds on shot I believe but 2nd yesterday will give him a much sterner test than last time out I believe.

    The race should finally convince O’Brien that Fame And Glory is his best middle distance horse and he will very much be the main point of focus this time, I expect Liszt to run in the race and set a much faster pace than the slow pace Golden Sword provided yesterday. Fame And Glory is capable of very fast times so I would expect improvement from yesterday after the team tactics didn’t suit himm.

    Although that said it’s going to take some effort to beat Sea The Stars he is the one they will all have to beat

    #232513
    wallace-no7
    Member
    • Total Posts 1511

    I cant Sea The Stars going off a very short price.

    Something like

    STS 8/11
    F+G 2/1

    That would be a fair price….cant see anything else geting into it

    #232517
    halfwaytoheaven
    Member
    • Total Posts 1387

    I cant Sea The Stars going off a very short price.

    Something like

    STS 8/11
    F+G 2/1

    That would be a fair price….cant see anything else geting into it

    Thats still short though, no?

    #232518
    RedRiot
    Member
    • Total Posts 870

    If I were to guess a price it be about 4/7 to 4/9 he’ll go off at imo.

    The 2003 Irish Derby even with a strong field Dalakhani was about those odds when beaten by Alamshar.

    #232519
    wallace-no7
    Member
    • Total Posts 1511

    Ah nt too short for a horse going for Dual Derbys in my humble opinion.

    Wont get a crazy Sindarr/Galileo/High Chap/Montjeu situation…i cant quite remember but most of them were very short

    #232538
    halfwaytoheaven
    Member
    • Total Posts 1387

    Ah nt too short for a horse going for Dual Derbys in my humble opinion.

    Wont get a crazy Sindarr/Galileo/High Chap/Montjeu situation…i cant quite remember but most of them were very short

    Remarkably Sinndaar only went off at 11/10, the others 1/3. If Sea The Stars does go off around 8/11 that is a bargain for short-odds punters IMO. Unbackable for us £10/£20 punters looking to make a decent profit though.

    #232581
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    Fame and Glory would have been passed by Rip Van Winkle in another stride. His chances of beating Sea the Stars are somewhere between nil and zero.

    Has AOB said he will run Fame and Glory?

    Everyone seems to think RVW will go for something like the Eclipse over 1m2f. I thought he got the trip very well in the Derby and was staying on better than most. I think if he runs against his elders he could get his bum felt over 1m2f as he’s a bit slow to get going and the Derby would suit him better.

    He hit a flat spot on both the Derby and the Guineas and had to be really pushed to get going if he does that in the Eclise or another top 1m2f race he wont see the way they went IMO.

    #232596
    RedRiot
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    • Total Posts 870

    Fame and Glory would have been passed by Rip Van Winkle in another stride. His chances of beating Sea the Stars are somewhere between nil and zero.

    .

    Come on, the race was no where near the pace Fame And Glory wanted and yet he still beats Rip van Winkle, Fame And Glory was holding them off pretty cosily but he wasn’t able to quicken with Sea The Stars.

    O’Brien messed up big, although I doubt a faster pace would have see him beat the winner of course but Rip Van Winkle would of been further back.

    Your quite a bit off the mark here, Fame And Glory will improve a ton in a fast run race.

    #232650
    halfwaytoheaven
    Member
    • Total Posts 1387

    Fame and Glory would have been passed by Rip Van Winkle in another stride. His chances of beating Sea the Stars are somewhere between nil and zero.

    .

    Come on, the race was no where near the pace Fame And Glory wanted and yet he still beats Rip van Winkle, Fame And Glory was holding them off pretty cosily but he wasn’t able to quicken with Sea The Stars.

    O’Brien messed up big, although I doubt a faster pace would have see him beat the winner of course but Rip Van Winkle would of been further back.

    Your quite a bit off the mark here, Fame And Glory will improve a ton in a fast run race.

    Age of Aquarius & Golden Sword set the pace and a reasonably quick pace at that. Taking into account the fact that AOB wouldve had the race run to suit his top horses i’m at a loss as to how you can say F&G got nowhere near the pace he wanted?

    Rip Van Winkle suprised us all yesterday when he lasted the Derby distance and even looked liked winning it at one point. The sooner we admit RVW caught us out the better

    #232653
    Zarkava
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4691

    Rip Van Winkle suprised us all yesterday when he lasted the Derby distance and even looked liked winning it at one point. The sooner we admit RVW caught us out the better

    Not sure how a Dewhurst 7th, 2000 Guineas 4th and Derby 4th can ‘catch us out’. He didn’t even win his maiden on the racecourse.

    Can I tell you about a similar profile of horse?

    He won his first 2 starts as a 2yo before being unplaced on 2 consequent starts. He then finished 7th in the Racing Post Trophy.

    The following season he finished 3rd in the 2000 Guineas and then 4th in the Derby. And you know what? 20-odd attempts later, Norse Dancer still hadn’t won a Group 1.

    #232655
    halfwaytoheaven
    Member
    • Total Posts 1387

    Rip Van Winkle suprised us all yesterday when he lasted the Derby distance and even looked liked winning it at one point. The sooner we admit RVW caught us out the better

    Not sure how a Dewhurst 7th, 2000 Guineas 4th and Derby 4th can ‘catch us out’. He didn’t even win his maiden on the racecourse.

    Can I tell you about a similar profile of horse?

    He won his first 2 starts as a 2yo before being unplaced on 2 consequent starts. He then finished 7th in the Racing Post Trophy.

    The following season he finished 3rd in the 2000 Guineas and then 4th in the Derby. And you know what? 20-odd attempts later, Norse Dancer still hadn’t won a Group 1.

    Haha I know mate but you know what I mean. We were all expecting Rip Van Winkle to be way down the field and most of us, including me, wrote him off as a no-hoper yesterday. With a furlong to go he was well up there and proved that he stays the distance.

    He might not win a race like that for a while but he stays.

    #232658
    RedRiot
    Member
    • Total Posts 870

    Golden Sword wasn’t setting a quick pace, some horses were racing to freely as a result, if you watch the Derrinstown, Liszt is setting a much faster, stronger pace than we seen yesterday.

    #232667
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    Sea The Stars’s participation is very much ground dependent – John Oxx won’t run him for the sake of running him if the ground is on the soft side. It follows then that if he runs, he (almost certainly) wins. It also follows that if he doesn’t run Fame And Glory will be in prime position to capitalise, though at a similarly short price.

    Either way it’s a no-bet contest.

    #232676
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    Fame and Glory would have been passed by Rip Van Winkle in another stride. His chances of beating Sea the Stars are somewhere between nil and zero.

    .

    Come on, the race was no where near the pace Fame And Glory wanted and yet he still beats Rip van Winkle, Fame And Glory was holding them off pretty cosily but he wasn’t able to quicken with Sea The Stars.

    O’Brien messed up big, although I doubt a faster pace would have see him beat the winner of course but Rip Van Winkle would of been further back.

    Your quite a bit off the mark here, Fame And Glory will improve a ton in a fast run race.

    Come on? What on earth are you talking about "Fame And Glory was holding them off pretty cosily but he wasn’t able to quicken with Sea The Stars." That’s about the most rediculous statement I have ever read on here.

    The horse was flat to the boards as were all four that finished behind the winner. RVW was the last to get going and was beaten barely 1/2 length by Fame and Glory

    Most often horses who find sudden injections of pace too much for them like RVW did need a stronger more even pace to prevent that happening.
    Nothing was being held up from 3 out apart from the winner they were all at it. None more than RVW and Murtagh was getting the least amount of reponse.

    Make no mistake RVW gets 1m4f and if the race had been 1/2 a furlong further he would have finsihed well in front of Fame and Glory who looked like he was coming to the end of his tether. Or do you think he was running on better than RVW? If you do I would take of those rose couloured glasses you are wearing. :lol:

    I think we saw the best of Fame and Glory in the Derby but I doubt if that is the case with Rip Van Winkle. He looks like he is just coming to himself and there’s a lot more to come..

    #232691
    RedRiot
    Member
    • Total Posts 870

    I dont know what race you were watching.

    The race was slow, Fame And Glory has been setting very fast times on slower ground, his Derrinstown win was set with a blistering pace and you see the best of him. This is obvious.

    The Derby was slow, the tactics in place were to help Rip Van Winkle and still he comes 4th and out the placings again, and from what I seen Rip Van Winkle slowed right down when he finally got up there and probably needed half a furlong to get passed him cause Fame And Glory was galloping to the line, its hard to pass this sort of horse, the question you should ask yourself is why Fame And Glory came 2nd in a race that wasn’t really to his liking.

    Its obvious Fame And Glory is O’Brien’s best middle distance peformer 11112 and his only defeat is getting beat by Sea The Stars in a slow run Derby.

    Obviously you are the biased one putting the horse down all the time, and I recall you saying I was talking poppycock that Gan Amhras wouldn’t stay.

    O’Brien will not waste his time setting the race up for Rip Van Winkle again in The Irish Derby and Fame And Glory will be his main contender.

    #232695
    MDeering
    Member
    • Total Posts 1688

    Might as well get the "he won’t stay" argument out of the way early, eh?

    A trainer who talks of entries in the Juddmonte, Irish Champion and Emirates Champion is not really enthused about 1m4f, right? Right?

    You’re either in his corner, or you’re not.

    If Rip Van Winkle is re-routed elsewhere, I’m keeping an eye on Age Of Aquarius.

    #232892
    Onthesteal
    Member
    • Total Posts 1387

    On Epsom derby running and off – lets call it for arguments sake – a medium pace overall, surely Masterofthehorse has the most obvious chance here, no?

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