[Monster]

On the 11 th Septmeber 2008

On one Forum, Fulham suggests Dijeer (Pre Race) as being a solid Class/Form Horse

Later after racing on another forum George Johns is of the Opinion that Atlantic Sport was the Class/Form horse.

[Monster]

No answer speaks volumes LOL

[Monster]

Hi George

You have not answered if you have gone under the name of Fulham, Hensman Or Alan B on other Forums.

The reason I ask is becuase last year Fulham and George Johns were posting on different forums during the same period of time.

Good Luck

Monster

[Monster]

Hi George

Do you also go under the name of Alan B and Fulham on other Forums.

Good Luck

Monster

[Monster]

Hi Matt

The Following research was carried out by me over 18 months ago.

Spencer 2yr, 3yr, 3yr+ Handicaps
Weight 9st 4lbls+ Dropping in class

Course Surface
Flat 21/113 18.6%. I.V. 1.07, A/E 1.17
Undulating 20/104 19.2%, I.V. 1.11, A/E 1.28

Uphill 5/48 10.4%, I.V. 0.60, A/E 0.66

Profit £91.78 to £1 Stake when course surface is not uphill

Good Luck

Monster

[Monster]

Does anyone know where I can get stats regarding the likley pace that a horse will set during the race?

I’ve been working on my own but finding it difficult to keep records.

Any help appreciated

Thanks

Hi Onefurlong

There are very good pace ratings at Fracsoft.com You will need to register with a username and password, but they are free. At the top of the race card are stats for Front Runners, Midfield and Hold up runners in past races over Course and Distance.

There also good Pace ratings on the smartersig site but you need to subscribe.

I normally use the data in a bar chart in draw order. The attached link is an example of how to make the best use of theFracsoft data. For instance if a particular draw has an advantage i.e. against the rail and you may be interested in having a runner with the pace to grab the rail. By having the data in graphic form, its easier to spot likely contenders for the rail.

http://docs.google.com/Doc?id=dd9jxt6q_22d2pv5bfx

Good Luck

Monster

[Monster]

The site uses a Speed/Stamina index based on both sides of the pedigree

http://www.unblinkered.com/

Good Luck

Monster

[Monster]

Computer Timeform has the full timeform perspective coments and you also get Timeform-i free which has even more information via the widgets feature etc. Also has the Betfair API interface and one click betting. The standard refresh screen is 500 milli seconds, but you can set it to operate much faster. You can also see very easily if there are more backers or layers for a particular runner etc via weight of money indicator

Good Luck

Monster

[Monster]

Afternnoon,

I’m still developing a spreadsheet that assists me with my selections I just wondered if anyone had come across any thing similar on the net?

How does the RP come up with RPR? How does ATR come up with their rating?

I’m just looking for some addional inspiration as I struggling with the allocation of points.

Sorry if this is confusing but thanks if anyone can help

Hi Onefurlonout

I have sent you a PM

Good Luck

Monster

[Monster]

Hi Light

There is a publication called The Three Mistakes and was published by dark Horse ratings. It offers a decent argument that traditional methods of estimating lengths beaten are flawed.

The official scale is here http://www.britishhorseracing.com/insid … Tables.pdf

Good Luck

Monster

[Monster]

Hi alex

Came accross this and thought of you http://www.biovalhorse.com/page5.html

Good Luck

Monster

[Monster]

You can watch limitless re-runs of the last 7 days RUK races, at the folowing.

http://www.racingpost.co.uk/c4/

At present I pay £149 per year to View Live Races and unlimited Video Form. The £4.95 per month looks poor value by comparison, as Video Form will be limited to 50 viewings per month. I could use 10 of those up just analysing one race.

Good Luck

Monster

[Monster]

Hi Artemis

I can alter the search to cover the exact number of runners

The following is for fields of 12 runners in handicaps racing in the same class as LTO

"1" "17.9"
"2" "15.1"
"3" "14.2"
"4" "12.3"
"5" "11.6"
"6" "10.5"
"7" "9.0"
"8" "8.5"
"9" "8.0"
"10" "7.6"
"11" "4.2"
"12" "4.9"

The AW Picture is very much the same

"1" "17.1"
"2" "14.7"
"3" "14.3"
"4" "12.5"
"5" "11.7"
"6" "9.8"
"7" "9.1"
"8" "8.8"
"9" "6.6"
"10" "5.1"
"11" "5.8"
"12" "5.1"

The strike rate reduces the further down the weights you go.

On the AW, Colts Improve the picture for TOP weights

"1" "20.9"
"2" "22.1"
"3" "16.6"
"4" "17.1"
"5" "17.2"
"6" "15.2"
"7" "11.2"
"8" "12.2"
"9" "8.7"
"10" "6.2"
"11" "6.5"
"12" "3.8"

So on the AW look to back Colts racing in the same class as LTO, who have displayed decent speed figures and are also near the Top of the handicap.

Good Luck

Monster

[Monster]

Hi Artemis

RE . You have to be careful with horses going up in grade and hence carrying less weight in the higher grade. This has long been recognised as a weakness with weight adjusted speed ratings.

It does not matter if you are racing in the same, dropping or going up in class from lTO. The strike rate drops the further you move away from top weight.

The research criteria 3yr Old and Older Handicaps, Last Time Out Ran in a handicap (Includes all handicap types)

Going Up In Class

Weight Postion & %Wins

"1" "17.0"
"2" "15.0"
"3" "13.2"
"4" "12.6"
"5" "10.4"
"6" "10.1"
"7" "9.4"
"8" "7.8"
"9" "8.0"
"10" "7.0"
"11" "6.1"
"12" "6.2"
"13" "5.2"
"14" "5.3"
"15" "4.3"
"16" "4.6"
"17" "4.7"
"18" "4.1"
"19" "2.5"
"20" "3.8"
"21" "3.9"
"22" "3.3"
"23" "1.6"
"24" "0.8"
"25" "1.2"
"26" "1.1"
"27" "2.5"
"28" "0.0"
"29" "2.5"
"30" "3.3"
"31" "0.0"
"32" "0.0"
"33" "0.0"
"34" "0.0"

Down In Class
"1" "12.2"
"2" "9.8"
"3" "10.2"
"4" "9.2"
"5" "7.8"
"6" "9.1"
"7" "6.9"
"8" "7.2"
"9" "6.3"
"10" "6.0"
"11" "5.5"
"12" "4.1"
"13" "5.0"
"14" "3.8"
"15" "5.0"
"16" "4.2"
"17" "4.9"
"18" "3.6"
"19" "3.3"
"20" "7.7"
"21" "0.0"
"22" "3.6"
"23" "0.0"
"24" "0.0"
"25" "0.0"
"26" "0.0"
"27" "0.0"
"28" "0.0"

Same Class
"1" "14.4"
"2" "12.5"
"3" "11.5"
"4" "10.4"
"5" "9.5"
"6" "8.9"
"7" "7.6"
"8" "7.6"
"9" "7.2"
"10" "6.6"
"11" "5.0"
"12" "5.3"
"13" "4.9"
"14" "4.9"
"15" "4.0"
"16" "5.0"
"17" "4.6"
"18" "3.8"
"19" "3.8"
"20" "4.7"
"21" "2.5"
"22" "0.8"
"23" "1.0"
"24" "1.4"
"25" "0.0"
"26" "2.2"
"27" "2.6"
"28" "2.4"
"29" "8.3"
"30" "4.8"

Good Luck

Monster

[Monster]

Hi Artemis

The problem with Top Speed ratings is that they are adjusted again when applied to the race in question. to a cerain extent extra weight may or not slow down a class horse, but taking weight off does make an inferior horse any faster.

If you look at the ten yearr stats for handicaps starting with the highest weight to the lowest. Top weight 13.1% strike rate and gradualy reduces as you go down the weight position in the handicap. Clearly weight is not doing what it should do as the pattern would be more random.

"13.1"
"11.5"
"11.0"
"10.1"
"9.0"
"8.8"
"7.9"
"7.2"
"6.6"
"6.2"
"5.3"
"5.1"
"4.8"
"4.6"
"4.1"
"4.0"
"4.4"
"3.6"
"2.7"
"4.2"
"3.7"
"2.8"
"1.3"
"0.8"
"1.0"
"1.7"
"2.0"
"0.0"
"3.4"
"3.4"
"0.0"
"0.0"
"0.0"
"0.0"
"0.0"

For those that use lbs per length consider the following. With the old method 5 lengths = 1second and lbs per length. (Now change by the BHA to 6 lengths = 1second)

5f = 3lbs per length or 3ft per pound which would make the length of a race horse in stride 9ft long.

From a Time perspective under the old sysytem, the standard horse covered 55f in one second. (5l =1sec or .20 seconds per length)

Now divide 55 by 5 (Lengths ) and your race horse in stride now = 11ft. Which is a major contradiction as your race horse is 9ft long in stride according to lbs per length and 11ft long in stride when using feet per second.

Good Luck

Monster

[Monster]

Hi Carlisle

Topseed are much better when they are not adjusted for weight and they are from the last 3 outings. Preferably the LTO out being higher than anything else in the race. Double Best figures from the last 3 outings are especially good. The following is an extreme example and it was odds on, but it explains what type of race to look for when using Topspeed

Savarain 110,108,79

The Betchworth Kid 83,71,36

Fuilin 61,90, 93

This week Veracity won 7/4
The nearest figures from the best of the last 3 outings was Sphinx & Tarkheena Prince

Veracity 116,98
Sphinx 76
Tarkheena Prince 76

Good Luck

Monster

[Monster]

Very quiet here over the last few months.

I’m interested in how people store their speed figures – assuming they produce their own. I’ve used the RP database but find it thoroughly unreliable. Anybody have other ideas of quick and easy ways to store figures?

Thanks.

Hi ROF

Probably if its just speed ratings that you want to store then Excel 2007 is the easiest. the cells go onto infinity so there is no problem with running out of space.

You can sort by name, date etc and use the filter facility to retrieve entries using just 3 letters of the runners name.

Load your excel speed rating file, click the data button, highlight the name column (usually columnA) next click the Filter Button and you will see a new button with a down pointer on the right side of column A.

Click the the down pointer and a drop down menue appears. Hold your cursor over the Text Filters and another drop down menue appears. Click Begins With and then enter the first 3 letters of the horse that you are looking for.

If you are collecting lots of data then you may want a data base facilty.

Good Luck

Monster

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