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On that basis you would have dismissed West Tip in 1986 as he fell at Becher’s second time in 1985 going like the probable winner.
Not necessarily so, although I didn’t back WT second time. Things were different then, including the handicapping so it’s a different ball game altogether now.
I can’t disagree with any of that, homer. But years ago I dismissed my main form fancies Maori Venture and Rhyme ‘N’ Reason on account of their jumping only to end up watching them saunter home. I no longer dismiss anything on those grounds as sometimes the race can make them jump.
Anyone who joined the TV coverage at the start of the second circuit would be forgiven for asking what was the brilliant jumper in the red colours up at the front.
For what it’s worth, it will take some unusual circumstances for TDN to be back on my radar for next year. He’ll be much higher and it’s possible he might not enjoy a return visit. I’m already thinking about the Hennessy and what might emerge from that.
I’m glad that we’re now getting analytical rather than emotional. It’s how I prefer to operate. It may sound cold-hearted and it is to an extent but I don’t often get too worked up watching a race even if the result goes my way.
Yes, the fences are there to be jumped but are we really going to dismiss the true picture of a race just because certain things happened or didn’t happen? Surely if we’re going to take form analysis seriously we need to investigate as thoroughly as possible what we’ve witnessed.
Andy Pandy, Boom Docker, even West Tip himself. All what-might-have-beens. Synchronised? Anyone recall what certainties Dark Ivy and Winter Rain were on form? Alverton? Things happen arguably more in the National than in any other race so I’m of the opinion that we need to be more careful than usual about arriving at conclusions about the form.
But let me ask you to consider the official angle.
Going into the race, The Druids Nephew had already been raised 10lbs by the handicapper for his Cheltenham win. Many Clouds had been lowered 5lbs to tempt him to run. Would he have won if there were an additional 5lbs between him and Saint Are? I very much doubt it. The handicapper has now raised him to 167. What he is effectively saying is that he’d expect The Druids Nephew to beat him. All this assumes TDN would have stayed etc and yes, that’s all part of the equation but he’s saying that TDN was better handicapped, even after the race, than Many Clouds.
Going back to Saturday (and off on a tangent), my niece was the only one of the 20-odd of us in the house to back the winner. She asked me before the race what chance her horses had. When she mentioned Many Clouds, I said ‘big chance’ and it immediately occurred to me “why didn’t I include it in my own bets?” But that’s racing. I didn’t back Rocky Creek because I did last year and didn’t think it could beat TDN purely at the weights and I wasn’t convinced the wind op would do anything for its stamina. These are the decisions you win and lose money on. Rocky Creek was a good decision. I’m tempted to argue that not backing Many Clouds was, in the cold light of day, the correct decision, just one that didn’t work out for me on the day. I can’t say I felt the same way about either Comply Or Die or Neptune Collonges. Those were both ones that, in the cold light of day, I was downright stupid to rule out of my final calculations.
On another day, I’ll get it spectacularly right.
I would say calling someone who offers a perfectly reasoned opinion ‘deluded’ insulting. I said at the start people wouldn’t like what I had to say and that has been borne out. But let me counter your assessment of the beaten horses (although I felt I’d already done so).
Purely on high ratings, it is one of the better race performances. But what if The Druids Nephew had won by 10 lengths? It would still be one of the better performances because he was highly rated to start with. Handicap performances, in my opinion, should be judged on by how much those involved performed in advance of their official mark. You will probably see this in the Free Handicap this week. The chances are they will finish fairly closely grouped and most will be rated 100+. Does that make the winner an outstanding prospect? Unlikely. If they finish strung out like washing that might be a different story.
Going into the race, Saint Are was nowhere near handicapped to get that close. As I said, I backed him in the race two years ago so I know his form. He had to win impressively last time just to get in and he has improved yet again. All credit to his trainer. Yes, he has good course form and people were happy to back him on that basis but so did others in the race and they got nowhere. Monbeg Dude was handicapped to run well and did so but he was asked to give a better horse – and equally well handicapped one – a long start. He might be a Welsh National winner but he’d need to be half a stone lower to win an Aintree one. Shutthefrontdoor was not well handicapped on his Irish national form. he was a ‘potential’ horse and proved it by outrunning his new mark.
You say there were no significant incidents in the race. Wasn’t The Druids Nephew’s departure a significant incident? Balthazar King’s fall? Ballycasey’s being brought down? Even Al Co (a Scottish national winner so a potential winner in your eyes) being hampered out of it at the first? I’m sorry but there are more holes in your argument than in a colander. The bottom line is that a lot of things needed to happen for Many Clouds to win. That was probably why I ended up looking elsewhere (The Druids Nephew, First Lieutenant, eg) for the winner.
I watched the race with the family. My brothers have been studying racing for longer than me and do nicely too. The first thing we agreed on at the end of the race was that it was brilliant that Many Clouds had won. This was a horse which had won the Hennessy and the Gold Cup trial. He wasn’t a year-long plot like Shutthefrontdoor. he wasn’t hidden in any way, shape or form. Neither was Saint Are. That was brilliant. It was one up the jacksy to the plotters and so-called shrewdies.
I’d like to think we can offer our opinions without resorting to insults just because we don’t agree.
I’m prepared to back up my opinion with hard cash going forward. Are you? If so, get on over to Betfair. I’ll lay you 25/1 many Clouds for next year’s race.
No need for the snide comments, steeplechasing, and you’re not reading my comments fully. Or perhaps I’m not communicating clearly enough.
Many Clouds was very much on my radar until Friday night and, like Comply Or Die, I’m bemused that I didn’t back him. But the bottom line is that I’ve been studying form – deluding myself if that’s how you want to put it – for over 40 years and doing very nicely at it, especially in the Grand National, and there were others in the race with better chances but his chances were better than those that finished behind him.
Surely we can express our differing opinions without descending to insults. I only came back to this forum the other day after a long absence. It will be a while before I’m back.
Sounds like you’re a grudge against Many Clouds. He’s only 8 and according to the jockey went better than last year’s winner. Probably the best weight carrying performance since Suny Bay. Given the average amount of luck in running in future Nationals (not been brought down or carried out by loose horses) and that he remains in good health and race fit, he might equal or surpass Red Rum’s record of three wins.
You couldn’t be more wrong. I love the horse (backed him in the Hennessy) and have spent a lot of time today trying to analyse why I didn’t back him as he was in my list of qualifiers.
But my argument is based on what he actually achieved yesterday. I’ve concluded the race fell into his lap. He won’t have anything more to carry next year in broad terms but other horses will have less in comparison. The fact it’s close on 40 years since Red Rum did his hat-trick (and won his second under top weight) tells you all you need to know about MC’s chances of success next year. Suny Bay couldn’t do it either. He should be at least 40/1, and even then I’d want that about him even taking part.
I will state with the utmost confidence right now that MC has as much chance of 3 Nationals as I have of ******** Jane Hill.
I reckon he should be 25/1 to even run in it next year.
Most winners look like ‘naturals’, as do many of the placed horses, but how many actually run well the following year. Ballabriggs looked a natural and got round the following year running (on my figures) his previous form to the ounce but others were miles ahead of him at the finish.
One of the problems is that people ‘visualise’ without fully understanding handicapping. Even Newland said when the weights came out that Pineau De Re “would have won” last year with 8lbs more (as he was set to carry this time). Those 8lbs amount to 16 lengths in the National. That would put him back alongside Alvarado who got closer this year off a pound higher, which in turns backs the point about this race not taking as much winning.
If Many Clouds is entered next year his weight will depend on how he is campaigned. I reckon he was thought of as a Gold Cup contender this season. That was fine given how poor last year’s form was. Next year they’ll probably take the view that this year’s principals and top novices are a league ahead and there’s no point in taking them on so he might be campaigned to get back in off the same mark. That’s his only chance. And then he’ll need to hope other better-handicapped horses don’t show their form on the day.
I disagree with you guys and I reckon events have provided plenty of justification for treating this one race differently.
In terms of pure distance, it’s maybe now the second-longest race in the calendar but the nature of the fences, big field and value, mean it is run a lot more fiercely than an ‘ordinary’ race, which means the weights tells more in the later stages. In attempting to address this issue, the handicapper lets the better horses in just a tad lower than they would otherwise be. The reason connections weren’t running them was because they were actually disadvantaged with the way things were. The handicapper is merely addressing that issue and in so doing is tempting connections to run their better horses in the race. This cannot possibly be a bad thing and the ultimate justification was provided yesterday when the second-top weight prevailed (but might not have done anyway if TDN had stayed up).
I thik Smith is to be congratulated on his foresight and innovation rather than criticised.
I’ve now reviewed the race a number of times and reckon Many Clouds won pretty much because all the real dangers to him failed to run their race. The list below shows which horses I had on 10lbs or more better than their rating. The figure in brackets is by how many pounds those officially well in were ahead of their mark. The ones in italics are those I eliminated as not having sufficient class to win the race.
Super Duty 19
Rubi Light 16 (3)
The Druids Nephew 15 (10)
Rocky Creek 14 (9)
Rebel Rebellion 14 (7)
Ely Brown 14
Unioniste 13 (2)
Soll 13 (7)
Lord Windermere 12
First Lieutenant 12
Cause Of Causes 12
Godsmejudge 12
Corrin Wood 12
Balthazar King 11
Owega Star 11
Many Clouds 10 (2)
Ballycasey 10
Monbeg Dude 10
Chance Du Roy 10Here’s how they ran:
Super Duty – out of form this season and outpaced throughout
Rubi Light – doubtful stayer but UR early anyway
The Druids Nephew – travelling very strongly in the lead when fell five out
Rocky Creek – didn’t stay last year and didn’t travel as well this time, struggling from before halfway
Rebel Rebellion – doubtful stayer and had run his race and eventually PU
Ely Brown – fell 1st
Unioniste – fell 5th
Soll – didn’t stay two years ago, same again here but BBV
Lord Windermere – trainer can’t buy winners this season, looks out of love with the game, PU
First Lieutenant – mistake 1st, blundered badly second, mistake 3rd, never in it after that
Cause Of Causes – either couldn’t or wasn’t asked to get competitive early, never got in it
Godsmejudge – no form this season, ran well for three miles, eventually PU
Corrin Wood – blundered badly (hampered?) 3rd, soon PU
Balthazar King – every chance when fell
Owega Star – doubtful stayer and ran well for some way
Ballycasey – doubtful stayer but brought down by Balthazar King
Monbeg Dude – couldn’t/not asked to go early pace, never nearer
Chance Du Roy – couldn’t/not asked to go early pace, same as Monbeg DudeAs for the placed horses:
Saint Are – wasn’t really on my radar this time but I’d backed it two years ago as a big improver, new trainer appears to have got it back on a curve, ran a super race. Needed a big win last time to get in so big rise not in its favour.
Monbeg Dude – I didn’t fancy it on class grounds but would have been raging if I’d backed it. Hold up rides don’t win modern Nationals but connections sound thrilled with its run.
Alvarado – having been very critical of Moloney since his State Of Play rides, I’ve opposed Cappa Bleu and Alvarado in the last three years because of him. He doesn’t seem to have learned. Looks happier to get round than to try and win. This fella not good enough anyway but State Of Play most certainly was.
Shutthefrontdoor – would have needed to be as good as Carlingford Lough, the owner’s Gold Cup runner, to have had a chance but AP said before Cheltenham that this was a galloper and stayer, not good enough to get into the Gold Cup and unlikely to be good enough here. Ran to expectations
Royale Knight – like Saint Are, needed a big win to get into the race, which made him badly handicapped relative to others. Probably ran as well as could be expected.So Many Clouds has really only needed to run to his rating to win. On another day he might just as easily have been unplaced as TDN, Rocky Creek (if the op worked), Unioniste, Lord Windermere, Flight Lieutenant and maybe Balthazar King could all have beaten him with a bit of luck. That’s the Grand National for you.
But how unlucky have the connections of The Druids Nephew been? First Geraghty gives Sam Winner too much rope at Cheltenham, then he survives a bad blunder in the Hennessy behind Many Clouds, and now he takes a soft fall in the National with the race at his mercy. He’s already gone up 10lbs before yesterday’s race so things will be much tougher from now on.
B*gger…
I just spent about an hour typing a reply and when I hit ‘submit’ I got a ‘page not found’ message.
I’ll go and do it on a Word doc and copy/paste it when I’m in a better mood.
For fans of many clouds and maybe one or two others, be warned, you might not like it
DNC 2.00 Indian Voyage (nap) (if ab Kings Grey)
NWB 2.15 Relax (if ab Triangular)
NWB 3.25 Seventh Sky (if ab Ballygarvey)
DNC 3.45 Night In Milan (if ab Super Duty)KEM 3.45 Ballinvarrig (if ab Rocky Creek)
NWC 2.55 Beforeall (if ab Neptune Equester)
FYH 3.50 Shantou Ed (if ab Jimmy Two Times)
CHP 3.35 Grey Gold nap (if ab Kem 3.10 The Grey Taylor)Interesting that you mention Atzeni. He (along with Moore, obviously) has been one of the jockeys of the season in my opinion.
Check his contrasting rides in the big races (both big field handicaps)on the last two Saturdays. First, at Haydock on De Rigueur when he came from stone last off a strong pace to win and then on Saturday at York where he had Farraaj close to the lead off a moderate pace to win another huge pot.
This young fella is a future champ with the right backing. Spencer is a clown.
Spencer didn’t do too much wrong on Vancouverite but Atzeni once again shone on Amralah, getting an early lead, surrendering it and then kicking on again.
Interesting that you mention Atzeni. He (along with Moore, obviously) has been one of the jockeys of the season in my opinion.
Check his contrasting rides in the big races (both big field handicaps)on the last two Saturdays. First, at Haydock on De Rigueur when he came from stone last off a strong pace to win and then on Saturday at York where he had Farraaj close to the lead off a moderate pace to win another huge pot.
This young fella is a future champ with the right backing. Spencer is a clown.
Say what you like about John McCririck but he was a consummate professional in front of the camera – whether his style appealed to you or not.
I have to disagree, Hs. He wasn’t the consummate professional. He brought his own political extremism and misogyny to the programme and a consummate professional wouldn’t do that. He used the show as his own personal soapbox so regardless of his knowledge of the betting scene and racing he wasn’t right. His style, especially his sartorial statements, raised other issues which did racing no favours.
