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One more vote in the yes camp :biggrin:
A losing bet can be a very good bet. Imagine backing favourite Horse A at double the odds of SP for "Big Race".. and it goes on to lose. Would you continue to make that bet every time or not ?
Everytime. Ah, but value is all about opinion i hear some saying.. yes indeed it is, on things that cannot be measured precisely. However how about we average roughly the opinions of thousands of people – a market place. The prices available here are much more likely to be closer to the mark.. (its why a lot of people prey on illiquid markets where there are fewer opinions and more chance of nicking value).
As long as bets have a positive expectancy (the odds obtained are greater than the probability of outcome occuring) then the bets are good, regardless of result. The more bets you make with a positive expectancy, the lower the effect of randomness and bad luck on your betting history.
In my personal experience ive made some brilliant bets, a lot of which have gone on to lose. I’ve been lucky enough to find myself matched at crazy odds on an evens chance many times only for it to go on and lose..
On the other hand, at some of my worst moments i have experienced the worst mental mistake a gambler can make – chasing his losses.. and got away with it. backing a short odds outcome at a terrible price and seeing it win. The win certainly did not make me happy. I stopped for a few days after that to regain discipline.
I have yet to come across any arguement that can be made against value. <br>
who are bet collector and how do you know this tony ? and what kind of liquidity do they provide ?
its possible one or two might be on less than 2% and this could have been agreed for them a couple of years ago when the site was still young, but i would be surprised. i know theres one chap who can afford to go on holiday for a few weeks and still come back and be on 2% due to the number of commission points he racks up.
what gamble says is also correct, there are bots betfair likes and ones they dont. im not sure what action they take to curb the ones they dont like.
ian, do you allow bots on your site ? these bots are hopefully going to increase betfairs competition. as the other exchanges are botted liquidity will increase and hopefully people will move away from the betfair to lower rates of commission when they see they can get the same price somewhere else.
i think there is a myth out there relating to bots that they never lose etc. they can lose just like we all do at times, its just they are better at being disciplined, have endless stamina and can place more bets in a day than any of us could.
I’m sat here watching a bot i co-own work away on the 23:38 American horse race. I’m pretty sure it exists. I’m also hoping the #7 backers aren’t going to get lucky, the bots taken a rather dim view on it and been laying for the last 10 minutes, it’s obviously spotted something in it’s form. :biggrin:
theres a new breed of pro gambler like you and i scipio who trade and treat the exchanges more like sports futures markets, trading fixed odds contracts for a profit.
I would hazard a guess at there being more than 100 on the exchanges. If you want to include substantial second income as qualification then i would be in there. I still do the day job because I love it. And no, it is isn’t easy making money via betting. :)
wise words dave. this thread got some good stuff on it.. worthy of a bump to the top. :)
for paul..
i dont find it that easy to make money on football. i tend to do the arbs in running and thats it, of course even that is a touch risky in that someone can score whilst you are making the second bet ;) If i decide to take a position on a match to trade it and it goes wrong then i do stop the loss everytime, usually if i place a bet im hopeing one team scores first and then i can hedge it… but i hardly ever do this because it involves too much risk usually. might type more later.. :biggrin:
RULE NO.1 – Never play catch up.
This has to be the single most important rule in gambling. Never chase losses, if you are "in running", "cut" losses, but dont chase them. Your staking plan as described above by the boys will prevent you doing this.
my favourite was PASSING WIND. "and the horse in front is passing wind" etc etc :biggrin:
one of the horses in the USA was called SHAG.. remember that one had the tv guys back in the UK studio chuckling..:biggrin:
Sorry to hear that Belly. But keep your focus long term overall.. so far you have done well.
I find losses are times to evaluate whats going on, what went wrong today (if anything) ? why did you make the decisions you did ? also, remind yourself why you decided to back those winners before and always ask.. how much is dependant on luck and how much judgement ? Im sure the "punters" on here will tell you that losses are an expected part of your profession/day to day punting and that value is key to your eventual success… did you get the right value on your bets today in your opinion ? if so, you can hopefully write it down as just another "day at the office".
My strategy is a little different in that i set out to never lose… if i do then i will cut it to the minimum i can lose.. and then go through and figure out where i went wrong, either strategically – position wise or possibly mentally – which is something i find needs constant work on ;) :biggrin:
Good luck tomorrow Belly !
snowman,  the answer as some of the best financial traders will tell you is to let your profits run and cut your losses short.. yet so many people seem to do exactly the opposite.  when they see a profit they lock it in instantly, but if they are losing they let it run in the hope that something amazing occurs and it comes round.
i think you should set yourself a target you are happy with when you are letting profits run…  figure out at what point you want to lock your profit in.. often this will be the point when something big occurs in the event which can swing the momentum of the game.  if you can hedge at a good time (takes practice) you can get back on it again at an even better price which will increase your margin further ;)   work on your instincts, practice trading markets – because you do get better with practice.  you’ll find a slightly different technique for each event too… also you will be able to read the intentions of the people on the screen and use that to your advantage. ÂÂÂ
its a huge revolution exchange betting… i doubt many have discovered the real beauty of in running trading on there yet… when they do its going to be amazing.  theres a cricket match on now with well over £1m matched on it.
belly, i recommend you try to look up some financial trading books, just as a different perspective on gambling.  also there is this fantastic book called "zen poker", you can get it off amazon – it is fantastic !  even though its on poker, the rules it gives out are the exact ones many successful traders and gamblers use, its a must read IMO. ÂÂÂ
(Edited by larry layer at 3:36 pm on Sep. 22, 2002)
i make my living "gambling"… but not punting like some of the guys on here, im just an exchange parasite. i would advise you to open your mind to the many ways in which exchanges allow you to hedge and trade. i try to find one sporting event a day where i think i can profit and its not often i lose, i dont think ive lost on more then 3 event in a row and even then the loses have been very small. keep an open mind..
Learn to use inaction as a weapon.
But, at the same time.. when you realise an opportunity, be aggresive (within reason).
