[kgannon]

Betlarge,

With the utmost of respect, I have to disagree with the contention that it is the number of bets that counts in a statistical sample – a statistical sample that you want to gauge your performance and future plans off of, that is. I know its been commented on in this forum countless times, but, in my opinion, race selection plays an important part in the process too. And, what of the enjoyment of it all? Surely, enjoyment is lost when you reduce bet selection to a numbers exercise? – I’m in no way disputing that you’ve worked your fingers to the bone in studying the form Betlarge, but with that many bets over a five month period, it just boggles my mind how you kept your sanity!

I would love to see some of statistics behind the experiment – did you by chance, ever put the information in spreadsheet format? Just asking because I think it would be facinating to see the percentage breakdowns between the savers and main picks, the low and high priced winners, types of race won, time of day for most wins etc etc

Back in the day, my dad finally hit upon a "system" where he only backed horses in listed or group races, no more than 5% of his total bank, and the horse had to be 5/2 or better. It actually worked for him – no great winnings but successful each year over a 5 year period (enough to pay for annual holidays etc). I have not gained that level of self-dicipline nor have the time to commit to the research but someday I’m hoping to get back into it.

Best of luck in the future Betlarge

[kgannon]

Betlarge,

First of all, congratulations on actually making a profit – I don’t know about you but the satisfaction for me in profiting from a race where I forecast the outcome correctly, outweighs the paycheck I receive for my weekly grind. I tip my hat to you for having the cajones to give it a go.

Just a couple of observations from afar; I also think that a 5 month timeframe is too short to gauge your overall success. Could you perhaps extend your season to include the all-weather (not that I’m a big fan but I’m guessing that patterns emerge more easily than on the flat)? Also, you mentioned that you bet $200 on every race that you bet on – why? I understand that good money management dictates that you only have a certain percentage of your bankroll in play at any one time but if your object to take as much money as possible out of the ring while preserving your capital, why not up your stakes (within the $200 of course) for your larger priced fancies? Maybe I’m way off base, but the idea would be to pounce on any weakness that you perceive in the market. On the flip side, scale back your stakes on those hum-drum even-money type favorites where the statistical results rarely back-up the needed outlay.

Personally, I think a gambler needs an edge over the straightforward win bet single – be it e/w trebles or whatever – but I understand the desire to choose singles.

Best regards – Karl

[kgannon]

Truthfully, I was disappointed with the first episode. Loved the premise but a few things really bugged me. The final furlong sequences seemed staged (half the jockeys were standing in their irons), I couldn’t understand the conversations a lot of the time because of the heavy accents, and in a pivotal scene displaying the payout screen, the projected payout mysteriously increased by $2m from the last view of the payout screen. Minor grumblings I know but it appeared shoddy in my view.

[kgannon]

I’m inclined to agree with Hurdygurdyman. I think SYT has the class and toughness to gallop most of these into the ground. However, SYT may just set the race up for the Baffert horse – Prayer For Relief – a decent underrated final furlong speedster. Thinking that these two make a tempting exacta bet and will be my key horses in the trifecta and superfecta. If the public steam into Uncle Mo and HDG, you may see SYT at 8/1 or better and PFR at 15’s or 20’s.

Slightly off-topic, but in the Mile, if Zoffany reproduces the form he showed against Frankel earlier in the year, he may be the best bet to lower Goldikova’s colors?

Cheers,

[kgannon]

Am I missing something or does Treasure Beach seem like a screaming each way shot at 40/1?

Lightly raced obviously as a 3 year old and if you throw out his last race in France, I believe his form stacks up nicely with many of the more fancied runners – probably better than Workforce and So You Think if you consider the win over Nathaniel at Chester.

Or, is this just a stepping stone for the Breeder’s Cup Turf in November and they figure that he needs a run prior to that?

Cheers and best wishes on Sunday

Karl

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