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the more and more I try to solve this puzzle I come to the conclusion that last years supreme holds all the answers. Go native and medermit this year have had mixed fortunes though the latters last race showed what medermit can really do.I think that go native has the beating of medermit again. solwit is a bigger threat and will win this years c h if the ground is any way soft, however if ground remains good to soft (as is he norm) then I think it will be a shootout between last years 1 2 in the s hurdle.
1 horse that worries me and could upset the applecart is kyberkim who has won twice this season over c & d.
the race this year is a real puzzle and the more I try to study it the more confused I become. however whatever horse I do back ill be definitely doubling it up with super dunguib in the supreme novices…let the games begin!please dont try and complicate a simple scenario…dunguib has course form and has won all his races with supreme ease.this horse is a good thing!
dunguib
punjabi
captain cee bee
garde champetre
volla valvadttefree of charge…get on d 1st day of the festival..u wont be disappointed :
1 horse that I saw and was robbed backing last day…weapons ams….still cant believe that mudlover pandoramma beat him last day as i’d invested a good few quid on him, and was just chinned..alas it’s never a bog come march so the form will eaily be reversed…once mickel stays away then it’s money in the bag…and dont forget course form!
maybe other bookies do it but ladbrokes is where i’ve seen it..im usually a paddypower man myself but an offer like that seem far too big an opportunity to pass up.
the captain jumps like a stag and has never ever fallen prior to his run in leopardstown at x mas…certainly dont let that cloud your judgement come arkle day because in my opinion that is something that will not happen again…on another note I was in ladbrokes today and saw their specials for the festival and one in particular stood out..dunguib to win the s novices and ire to train the winner of the bumper at 3’s….my advice is to fill your boots and then some..this is the best value bet that i’ve seen in a long time..dunguib according to connections is definitely going to run in the supreme and in my opinion will win doing hand springs, remember course form is crucial and he ‘s a future gold cup winner in the making..as for the bumper it nearly all is won by ireland..at 3’s it’s too big to pass up and represents outstanding value.
hopefully the run in naas next month will be a prep run for the big one. I hope he just does enough and lands the spoils. I still think come race day he will be around 5s or 6s as it’s an extremely competitive renewal and theres even talk that long run will also be in the field. Regardless of the field I cant see beyond the captain though I am slightly worried about sizing europe who is an awesome jumper of a fence.
I cant see further than the captain for this race. I remember the interview that Harty gave immediately after the supreme novices in 2007. though clearly happy with the win he was at pains to point out that given better ground the horse would be seen in a much better light.the horses form is there for everyone to see and if we do get goodish ground in march then I think we will see an exceptional performance. 6 to 1 with paddy powers is strongly advised and we wont see him run again till the festival.
