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Possibly because of double compaction, there is a stall bias with the new surface.
The width of the machines that work the track are not sufficient to do a single pass so the track has to be worked twice – on the left and on the right. This means the middle gets worked twice and at that area the surface is much faster than at low or high.
So why don’t jockeys just manouvere away from the edges? Because of the rule that they have to keep straight for the first 80 yards! Jockeys have to stay in lane until they pass the orange marker. Then they can maneuver left or right but by now the damage has been done. They have run in the fluffy dunes, whilst those drawn 5-9 have run on the harder sand.
Look at:
Distance > 5f
Runners >= 101, 2, 3 can’t win at the moment. They really are at an extreme disadvantage and there is nothing that can be done unless a jockey choses to violate the keep straight rule.
I followed two pretty good laying system – on another well known site – a few years ago; the gist was finding unfancied RP favourites, posted as, “Binchys-Lays”:
Basically, if the horse was fav, but had less than 2 tipsters ( 1 or 0 ) from the RP tipping that selection, it then went on a list. However, if the 1 selection is a * or a nb, they are wiped off the list. The next step is to check the price, which needs to be 7 or below to limit any losses. Stakes are in units of £10 depending on the price but we will never risk more than £60. So, for example, if the price on betfair is 7, we will lay £10. If the price is 4, we will lay £20. If the price is 3, we will lay £30 etc.
The other system, is as follows:
We are looking at Handicaps with 12 or more runners (I use Sporting Life website for this as it is set out in an easy way). You may find 2-5 races a day that fit the criteria.
Use Betfair to identify the favourite for the race.
We then use the Racing Post to have a look at the selections RPR (Racing Post Rating) and the ratings of the rest of the horses in race (you can use the RP website to sort the horses in order of highest to lowest RPR). If the favourite does not appear within the first five top RPR’s, then we have a selection.
