Forum Replies Created
-
Posts
-
Has anyone head anything more on Fencing Master’s well-being? He remains a solid 16/1 shot with most firms, although a couple have pushed him out to that price from 14/1.
Strange really, given Chabal became the latest horse to boost the Dewhurst form, winning the classic trial at Sandown for Godolphin last weekend. Dick Turpin already boosted the form by beating Canford Cliffs and Arcano in the Greenham, and with the race being run at a solid time, I think the form is trustworthy.
Fencing Master ran very green in the Dewhurst but considering he was soon being pushed along he has to emerge with credit for running the winner so close, especially since he was racing on the wide outside throughout.
I’m on St Nick at 7/2, Al Zir 25/1 and Hearts of Fire at 25/1 but had a little bit more on Fencing Master at 16/1. I hope theres something I haven’t missed with him.
poor show today, both third and go down as losers.
One for tomorrow
2.20 Epsom
–
ROCKET ROB
– proven over the track and trip and with Marco Botti in such good form I fancy him to add a second win for the yard now back down to a suitable trip. 5/1 Bet 365, 1 pt EW (3 places, 1/5 odds).
Fin: I like ‘Fencing’ believe that quite a lot had him down as one to follow (timeform made that note)
Just question about whether the mile will be enough for him (maybe needed that trip in the Dewhurst) – Oratorio didn’t come into his own until he was stepped up another couple – might he be the same?
Just throwing more thoughts out there…
P.s. – you get 20’s at Tote!
(Not great picture quality)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DY6HIVhx-ugThe stamina influence of the sire probably does point to him needing 1m 2f, yeah, but I am hoping a bit of pace will be injected in from the dam’s side. He is closely related to Maitre de Jeu, a dual 8f winner at 3 and there is a link to a French 1,000 Guineas winner on the dams side too.
Just to make my position clear, I think St Nicholas Abbey is the most likely winner and I think he has the speed to win the Guineas so have backed accordingly (on at 7/2 ante-post). However, with the race likely to cut up and with Beethoven the latest confirmed absentee from the race, I think the price on Fencing Master is good value each-way, and there should be trading opportunities on the win part of the bet nearer the day now O’Brien is likely to head to HQ triple handed – surely his outsiders will shorten up on the day (if they make it to Newmarket of course).
Fin – what do you think to ‘Fencing’ being off the bit from the start?
Lack of experience – bad start or needing further already at that stage?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vl2_dyvxLdw
I thought that he looked a bit big that day…
Zenjah, yeah, I put it down to lack of experience, he ran very green in the Dewhurst, with a bad start like you say and having to be pushed along on the outside throughout. I just think that with natural progression (in one of the leading yards in Europe it has to be said) then he could have the beating of Beethoven, and on breeding he is likely to appreciate another furlong. I like the positive noises coming out of the yard (trainer said on his website he was working well) and I think if St Nicholas Abbey was to be beaten, then it would be having been tapped for toe, so if a ‘true’ miler was to win the race then it could be one like Fencing Master, or Hearts of Fire. I’m not keen on Canford Cliffs, Xtension or any of the other sprinters, as IMO the trip will prove their undoing.
RE Arcano, yeah, they were not happy with Arcano’s run in the Greenham and say they think he needs a bit longer until his next run – confirmed on the RP.
I’m on St Nicholas Abbey and also Fencing Master. On his website last week O’Brien said he had been working well at home and he was second in the Dewhurst on his last start – placed Group form is better than some of those he could face in the day. He looks to have a nice pedigree to so could come into his own over a mile, dam was out of a French 1,000 Guineas winner. 16/1.
