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Mr Wilson, I’m not doubting any aspect of Workforce’s success, it was clearly a decent performance. I agree with you that if times are compared to each other, as normal, then Workforce is the best Derby winner that I’ve seen also. However, it is this that I have big doubts about.
It is my contention that occasionally one race on a card is speeded up more than others by outside influences. This doesn’t happen every day but it’s occurred enough over the years for me to realise that it definitely happens. I think a lot of speed figure compilers either aren’t aware of it and give unrealistically high ratings, assume something is wrong with their standard times, or more often, downgrade the ratings of the other races to make things fit.
Also, the two 7f races were at the end of the card on Friday, so it’s also possible that it was just a case of the ground drying out more by the time they were run, as I’m sure the ground dried out during the course of the afternoon on Saturday.
I even had a time expert on another forum suggesting after the first day that the ground was
slower
for a mile and a half than at shorter.
I kind of agree with that, my own interpretation of Friday’s times is that conditions were a bit quicker at 7f than the rest of the course, although that may be attributed to the wind.
Drone, that’s an interesting question and one I can’t answer with absolute certainty. It’s possible that very firm ground won’t lead to very fast times because of horses not letting themselves down on it, generally though I think the firmer the going, the faster the times.
Perhaps everyone at Timeform House – the form guy, the time guy, the tea lady – has collectively taken leave of their senses.
Well it has been known, Papal Bull springs to mind
Actually, I too came up with a huge figure when comparing the time with other races on the card. The figure was so big that I believe that this was an occasion where one race was influenced by conditions more than the other races, I have seen it happen before and it can affect figures by around 10lbs.I won’t pretend I can tell just by watching a race if it will produce a good time figure, however, it’s usually apparent when a race won’t produce an exceptionally high figure. It’s true that Workforce powered away towards the end of the race to win easily but Moore had to really get after the horse in order to catch up with the pacemaker, in my view that doesn’t have all the hallmarks of a horse that’s just run an outstanding time performance. Time will tell.
Prufrock, don’t you think that’s quite a suspiciously high figure for a race that wasn’t run optimally? It was noticeable that there were a number of horses pulling early and the pacemaker would’ve had to improve markedly, which personally I doubt. Also, regarding time analysis, don’t you think that on rare occasions the influence of conditions during a meeting can fluctuate, even over the same distance?
I agree with most of that, Gingertipster, but you can never be sure to what extent the extra effort required to go a faster earlier pace would impact on any individual horse’s finishing kick.
I’d classify a 7-length Derby win as achievement rather than potential.
And the quality of opposition doesn’t matter?
Workforce obviously has potential, but then so did St Nicholas Abbey. I’m pretty sure though that in future, like SNA, he’s going to be priced up like he’s already fulfilled that potential. This year’s Derby looked a poor renewal beforehand and, the winner apart, it looks pretty much that way after the event. The merit of the winning time has been seriously overestimated and the pacemaker’s performance is being elevated to support that view.
