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Hawkes Point for me. I’m a sucker for these relatively unexposed horses, especially off 10-00 & with some heavy ground form. They’re often priced up at silly (short) prices, at least this one’s backable at around 12/1.
Working on the principle his first run this season, on this course over 3m, was a sighter for this race, & that he’ll be 100% for today.
Think Teaforthree will also run well again.
Farraaj broke the 10f course record (recently set by Planteur).
Also nice to see Robin Hoods Bay set another fast time (he already had a 2m02s to his name when winning a class 2 over CD in January, which put him high up the list of fast times. He’s probably gone a bit faster today)
He’s one of these AW hadicappers that seem to really enjoy the surface & can progress further than people think. He had a nice draw today though.
I don’t think this is a race for speculating much at all on long shots, but here’s mine anyway.
I’ve watched Lyric Street run well in good handicaps a couple of times this year. At York, he was placed behind Mount Athos & finished ahead of Motivado, and at Ascot he finished ahead of Bernie the Bolt. Some people fancy Motivado & Bernie, they are both much shorter prices than Lyric Street.
I’ve just had a gut instinct he was being prepped for something. I honestly didn’t think it was this race, but today he’s got first-time blinkers and a 5lb claimer on. He does have a very wide draw, not sure if that’s OK or bad ?
It’s is a real gamble, but at 15/1 for a place, & 80-90/1 to win, I’ll risk a few £’s on Lyric Street.
My opinion on Carlton House remains the same, but for me he’s never been a price that has tempted me to back him. I probably would have lived with 7/1-8/1 EW, but I don’t think he was ever that price & is not likely to be now.
I’d agree that So You Think & Carlton House are probably too short, & imo Cirrus des Aigles is only fairly priced at best.
You could argue the overpriced horse in the race at the moment is Planteur at 12/1. His form is rock solid, and his 2 runs since joining M.Botti have probably been his best, they put him right there with SYT & CdA.
I keep going around in circles with this race. I just have a gut instict that Carlton House has been laid out for this for ages & is going to be ready to run the race of his life. He could be one of the few horses in the race who still has a bit more improvement & progression in him.
Problem is, you look at the quality of the opposition & the level of form many of them have already achieved. Carlton House could run his best race ever….and there’s a fair chance it may not be good enough to even get him into the frame.
I’d like to take a chance with him & back him EW, but if most or all of the top entries turn up, I’m not sure if he’s any value at less than 10/1 ?
Doesn’t quite address the point being made…
but I suppose historically (talking 80-100+ years ago) you could understand why it would be called the Epsom Derby. So as not to get it confused with the then Ascot Derby a few weeks later, which is now the King Edward VII at Royal Ascot. I assume that race was re-named around the time of Edward VII’s reign in the 1900’s, or possibly after that in memory of him.
Maybe it’s stuck since then.
I’ve always liked trying to work out the Coral Cup. More so than most other races, think this is as much about airy phrases like gut-instinct, habitual trainers, laid-out etc. rather than just down to pure form.
One that passes all my unscentific tests is Toner D’Oudairies. Same connections won the race last year. You can argue they have been playing around with him this winter, but he has shown a few glimpses this season & last, to suggest he can be competive off this mark.
On more logical tests. He’s had some experience in big field hurdles, but as only a 5yo in his second season hurdling is still that bit unexposed..& will probably sneak in right at the bottom of the handicap. Going to have to assume he’ll be OK on the decent ground.
He’s the only Cheltenham bet I’ve had so far.
Without dwelling on the negative points too much, the comments made about the travelling are very important. That is part of the experience, & I would say thousands had a bad experience yesterday.
Not sure if this is totally true, but a friend rang me at 12.30pm, still deep in a traffic jam. He told me the A339 was at such a standstill, people were getting out of their cars to get lunchs & stuff out of their car boots.
I’m sure it was gutting for Emerald to be stuck in the car-park for 2 hours+ after racing, but it must of been terribly disappointing, even upsetting, for the people stuck in traffic. Especially as the early races were the best ones, which I assume was dictated by the TV.
Think Aji’s comment about concentrating arrivals in a shorter than usual time, is probably very accurate.
The other dissapointent I had, was that we sort of have a moral code that if you’re getting in for nothing, it’s an idea to support the company & spend the entrance money with them. Would have been happy to spend £20 per head on food & drink, but found it near on impossible to do so, without having to miss the horses parading or the racing iteself.
Shame, because this was potentially a great free racing model. You get 10,000+ captive visitors inside your course, sell them lots of expensive food & drink, and recoup your entrance fees, and some.
Anyone else go ? Wasn’t it great ?
I’m sorry it was a bad experience Monksfield. I’m assumung you came into Newbury from the M4 & down the A334, past the Vodafone complex? On busy racedays, the closer you get to the town, the more conjested that road gets. Think today it was exceptionally bad. A couple of my friends gave up & turned back when it was clear they were going to miss the Sprinter Sacre & Long Run races.
Whether it’s the fault of the racecourse or the police, they badly over-looked what was going to be predictable conjestion. What with the free admission, early 12.10pm start & families coming as it was half-term etc.
Not that it helps you now, but there more sneaky ways of getting to the racecourse quicker, via the small roads from the south & east of the town. I came from Reading, left at 11am, & even on those roads, did most of the journey in 30 minutes, & the last half a mile took me another 30 minutes, & the same to get out, even though I skipped the lase race.
They must have been pleased with the turn-out, but imo they were not prepared for it.
To make it worse for you Sire De Grugy was the only horse I backed all day, but I backed him each-way ! Thought he was going to win when he hit the front in the home straight.
My pick is going to be Any Currency at 25/1. I quite fancied him for this last year, but he sadly got injured in the lead up to the race. He’s still only 8yo, & because of his injury, is fairly lightly-raced.
Earlier in his career, he’s chased home some decent horses, like Midnight Chase, The Tother One, Poker De Sivola & The Package, in top staying handicaps at Cheltenham (including at the festival). Some of those horses have since proved they were very well handicapped at the time.
Whilst I doubt Any Currency could out-class horses like those (or even out-class the class horses in this years WN), I think there’s a fair chance he could out-stay them. Imo he’s still fairly rated on OR133 (similar to the rating he ran those good placed efforts from). If that rating gets him into the Welsh National, he will end up with a very light weight.
The worries are:
His comeback run at Sandown was his first for over a year, & is that going to set him back. I thought he was trying very hard & stayed on well, when imo clearly needing the run. Is one run enough to get him fit for this gruelling test though.Also I think they want to run in the Aintree Grand National, so whether they throw everything at him for this race, I’m not sure. In saying that, I think he’d need to win this or something similar to get into the Grand National.
If you’re frequenting Rules, Kingfisher, I think you must be winning too much!
In saying that, I can imagine you there, eating game & sipping red wine…probably having insisted you have a table with that weird painting of Margaret Thatcher looking over you.
I’ve only been there once, & including wine, it cost us the wrong side of £100 per head, I seem to remember. Normally hope to get a few meals for that !
Maybe the next time the Ante Post King strikes we can go there to celebrate.
Much as I’d love to get together again. I’m either booked up or in the wrong place on many of the days leading up to Christmas….but have a great evening if it comes off.
If anyone wants to catch up with me, the only times I’d really be free are :
Late afternoon/evening on Thur 8th, I’m sort of tied up at a lunch at the Chring Cross Hotel dinnertime, but we normally de-camp to the Coal Hole in the Strand afterwards. Could catch up with people there, & possibly go on somewhere after.or on Tues 20th.
Maybe it’s because I’m going Phil, but I think the class 2 chase is a cracking race.
It has the makings of a real burn-up, particularly on this ground, with a several of them normally racing up with the pace. You’ve got class horses like Safari journey & Rippling Ring (who could be different class off 128 if he if is the same horse as he was in 2009), against some solid progressive chasers who are happy in this class, like Oceana Gold, Exulto & Zorro de la Vega.
I will be going to Fontwell tomorrow (Fri 30th), if anyone wants to catch up.
Potentially some decent races, an £18k class 2 chase, & a couple of class 3 hurdles. Just hope the sun doesn’t dry up the ground too much, & ruin the field sizes.
Early on, I’ll be upstairs in the old Kerman stand at some corporate do, but will be around during the all of the racing.
Drop me a PM if you intend to be there. I’ll look in during tomorrow morning.
I’d second David’s mention of Hasili. I think the lovely thing about her progeny, was that 4 or 5 of the best ones were full brothers/sisters (by Danehill).
Talking of Juddmonte broodmares, does anyone remember Slghtly Dangerous? In truth, her offspring may not have gone on to be great sires, but she produced a batch of top class racehorses. I think she managed a dual Derby winner, 2 Derby 2nd’s (1 English & 1 Irish), & an Irish Oaks 2nd….& before all those she dropped Warning as well.
Was expecting her daughters to become good broodmares, some like Shirley Valantine have, but I have heard very little about Yashmak & Jibe in particular. Does anybody know what happened to them?
Have always been a great fan of Midday, but I did feel she was a bit of a silly price yesterday.
Firstly though, I think Misty for Me got a brilliant ride from Seamie Heffernan, which I’m sure contributed to the win.
All the talk was about Midday gaining her 6th G1 win, but maybe people overlooked the fact that Misty for Me had herself already won 3 G1’s….Midday hadn’t won any at the same stage of her career.
Given that Midday was taking on an improving Ballydoyle 3yo (who was not miles behind her on ratings), in their own backyard, & having to concede 12lb weight-for-age (which I’m not sure can always be ignored)…maybe she should never have been a 1/3 shot.
Like Reet, I’m hopeful that when all this unravels towards the end of the year (in a truer run race, decent ground, wfa less), that Midday may be able to turn the tables with MfM. Although I’m not quite as confident as Reet seems to be!
This has become my favorite all-weather racing day of the year.
I should think the anti-AW-ers would cringe at use of words like variety & historic when talking about an all weather meeting, but I really think this day has it all. There’s even a 2yo race, probably with a Bill Turner runner!
Good luck with Langley, Alan. Hopefully he can go one place better than Salute did a few years back!
I’m planning to be there, & haven’t brought my ticket yet, but sadly there will be no shortage of tickets on Saturday. Shame for such a nice card.
