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on the subject of 50/50 top and bottom of the weights the + side of this is that you will have less horses with good ability ratings in the bottom half so more can be discounted no?
this would tie in with
what a horse does or does not do,in the latter part of his last few races peach note section 24 the golden years
had a look at my figures for red gales race inform but not inthe top 5 ability ratings,buccelleti in both 10/1 to
i think there was a base rating with add ons that he may have used i think i know what add ons are are
L33 now know how to work out the full numerical picture as vdw had done with the help of someone who backs slow horses with the two 3rd and 4th columns now as he rated will it become more obvious as i used 3rd column anyway . or is it as i suspect still the same ? going to use his ratings for a while to see how it goes
using the little owl type ratings with rpr the three horses to take out of the cambridgeshire are ,the illies,monte alto,docof thebay is this correct formath
good god almighty how stupid do i feel
the little owl vdw ratings ,on and off have looked at these ratings for a while to see if i could work them out on a earlier post it was hinted as to what they were based now the penny has dropped now know how to work out the secound column god stupid wee things can make your day 
have had a wee look at the cambridgeshire the first filter was must have been first or secound within last two runs left 17 then the 8 with the least days since ran of these the 3 most consistant are mutajarred,docof the bay ,monte alto,also went down class rating till i had two who were consistant pipedreamer 240 and monte alto 232 7th and 8th best
no more questions from me for now its all getting a bit strange over on the other board seen this happen before on an other site dont mind learning through my pocket for a few weeks thanks again formath
formath in vdw,s assesment of saher,s lincoln he says
from the top of the handicap the five most consistant. not first 5 or 6 in the betting would he use this in sprints where most winners would be found at the top of the handicap
,my own thoughts on vdw,s ratings the little owl , race ect is that the secound column is some kind of handicap rating or procedure little owl secound column rating 90 first column rating 69 i,m covinced this means little owl ran 21 days ago no way to check, maybe secound column is projected handicap running ran 85 lto dropped 5lbs projected rating 90
thought when vdw said you should use 2 methods of rating one on time one on weight ? dont get me wrong mail is the best are the rpr and mail the sort of the same? ps could,nt rate a maiden to turf is that a mistake aphorism 4.40 well it was today
formath have had a wee go at the 4.40 warwick of the first 6 in betting 3 most consistant are atlantic coast,hawkbridge king,abstract folly with 7 using rpr and topspeed ac and hk are both top rated 92 rpr and ac top rated topspeed, ac also placed lto and good days since ran,in the top 3 positive weight movements -5lbs,which makes it top rated if adding on to its lto rpr rating, ok with postdata ,top 3 class=39 3rd best, apart from its 2nd lto itmaybe improving,73,67,84 only drawback that the other horses are moving down in class where its moving slightly up but being helped by 5lbs,its form figure chance 25%
somthing i noticed from the percentage wins next time out 111=33% if alot a movment of 3% for each placing of the horse lto i.e a win to a 2nd lto = 112=30% ,113=27% the horses places 2nd lto get 2% movement ie 121=31% ,movement 3rd lto get 1% ie 211= 32% not spot on but near enough it goes off near the other end of the scale
the little owl vdw ratings ,on and off have looked at these ratings for a while to see if i could work them out on a earlier post it was hinted as to what they were based now the penny has dropped now know how to work out the secound column god stupid wee things can make your day 
