Forum Replies Created
-
Posts
-
I’ve thought for some time that Denman needs at least 3 ¼ miles, and his Gold Cup performance appeared to confirm that. He clearly couldn’t quicken when Imperial Commander went past him, and this combined with his age surely means he won’t win another Gold Cup.
With that in mind, there aren’t an awful lot of targets for him to go for next season, but the one that jumps off the page is the National. If ever there’s a horse that’s built for the job, it’s him. People may still crab about his jumping, but I don’t recall too many errors at Cheltenham. I still think he’s one of the best jumpers of a fence I’ve seen, notwithstanding his fall at Aintree last season (when he appeared to be tired from his exertions in the Gold Cup), and his uncharacteristic mishap at Newbury.
If I were Paul Nicholls, I’d forget the Gold Cup and give Denman a light campaign next season, starting with another tilt at the Hennessey, then using a race like the Aon as a warm-up for the National. And then, win or lose, he should definitely be retired; he obviously wouldn’t be getting any better, would find it hard to win any race thereafter, and anyway would have nothing left to prove.
As far as carrying top weight over 4 ½ miles, the character of the race has changed subtly over recent years, with better class horses now being more to the fore, and very few horses out of the handicap. If Denman were to run, his mark would be that high that this would not be the case, thus changing the complexion of the race to a relatively uncompetitive, ‘old-fashioned’ National where half the field would carry more than their proper handicap mark and thus could probably be discounted immediately.
I’ve loved Denman from his novice hurdle days; I’ve always thought he’d be an ideal National horse and would love to see him be given the chance to prove it. Two provisos, though: (1) the ground is no worse than good to soft, (2) he doesn’t run in the Gold Cup, so I was a little dismayed that Nicholls said he wanted to run Denman in next year’s renewal. Let’s hope he comes to his senses before then and (assuming the horse is still fit and well next season) realize that the Tank will be far better suited to the National than the Gold Cup at that stage of his career.
That’s scary. I’m not a fan either – my surname just happens to be Carter, and I only wish I could (still?) live up to the Unstoppable Sex Machine bit.
Bit late in the day – had problems with logging in & then like everyone else have been diverted by Cheltenham, so sorry for resurrecting this thread now.
Has to be Nashwan. Won an average Guineas, arguably the worst Derby ever, beat two over the hill champions (Indian Skimmer & Warning) in the Eclipse, & just scraped home against a bunch of mediocrities in the King George. He wasn’t even the top-rated middle distance 3yo of his generation.
Good sire, though, I’ll admit that.
Never mind all the squabbling about whether certain horses truly ran to form/were suited by the going – some posts here remind me of rival sets of football fans hurling abuse at each other!
Have got to say that it was an absolute privilege to witness yesterday’s race, whether being there in person or on the telly. Kauto put in a flawless performance, Denman proved wrong all those doubters who’d written him off prematurely, most of the other principals ran close to their true form, and no horses/jocks were injured. An absolutely perfect outcome (apart from the fact I lost on Denman!).
Well done Kauto – if there was any doubt before, he now surely deserves to take his place alongside jump racing’s immortals. Yesterday’s race transcends any differences of opinion – it was one of those occasions which will stay in the memories of jump racing fans for the rest of their days.
What do people think will happen to Denman next season? Will he be allowed to take his chance in the National, or will he have another crack at Kauto? Guess it will all depend on the going at Cheltenham – if it’s good to soft or softer, guess Harry will fancy the Gold Cup again. Obviously there’s no way he’ll run in both.
Methinks Kauto is terrible value (apart from the huge historical stat he has to overcome), and he’s possibly better going right handed on a flat track; stats say Exotic Dancer & Neptune Collonges can’t win cos they’ve been previously placed (and Exotic’s never beaten Kauto in several attempts). Barbers Shop is sound e/w value; has good profile (1st season novice, placed at the Festival, won over 3m, right age), and the Paddy Power form was made to look good yesterday by Imperial Commander.
Think MDB is underrated; even given Denman was below par LTO, the rest were beaten out of sight & I don’t think he’s been given the credit he deserves for that win. Forget his pre-Hennessy record at Cheltenham, as the cheekpieces appear to have improved him out of all recognition.
But (although I’ve done MDB & e/w Barbers) I’d love to see Denman come good again and stuff them all. His Hennessy win was possibly the most awesome weight carrying performance I’ve ever seen, and after last year I was hoping he was the best staying chaser since Arkle. Don’t mind that on this occasion I’ve let my heart rule my head and backed him accordingly.
Come on the Tank!!!!!
