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The curtain raiser at the festival is the Supreme Novices Hurdle which has been won by some great Champions past and present, which include the likes of Beau Caprice who won this race at the staggering age of twelve, Like -A-Butterfly who also was the last horse over the age of seven to land this race at the age of eight, Al Ferof and as we get closer the the recent years we have the likes of Champagne Fever who returned after landing the Champion Bumper the previous year and probably the best two novices to come i have seen in Vautour and Douvan.
At 13.30pm on the Tuesday of the 15th March the crowd go silent for that split second, when it starts to escalate in to a serious roar as the tapes go up and the Cheltenham Festival of 2016 gets underway. This year looks on paper i think as strong as a Supreme we have been subject to over the past few renewals, and the strong ante-post favourite for the past few weeks has been Willie Mullin’s ‘MIN‘. The son of Walk in the Park who is related to last years winner Douvan comes into this off the back to solid runs. His win at Punchestown when beating Gurteen by a comfortable fourteen lengths suggested that this horse had a serious engine, the form is as solid as it comes despite the tabloids and many forum experts that he has not beaten nothing to date to suggest a worthy favourite. Gurteen is not a bad yafrdstick in his own right who went on to beat Some Neck of Willie Mullin’s at Leopardstown in which was probably not the strongest of bumpers, but Gurteen has beaten a useful yardstick in a maiden hurdle back in January when taking the scalp of De Plotting Shed of Gordon Elliott’s who has gone on to win since.
Personally I thought he was very impressive at Punchestown on his last run when beating Attribution by nine and a quarter lengths, Ruby gave him a professional ride when restraining him three out and let his rivals come up along side him, it was only a breather and when once again Ruby let out more reign he put the race to bed very quickly going away still on the bridle. There is no doubt this horse has a serious engine and even though their are questions on the exchanges recently when speculation arose that he was drifting alarmingly out to 3/1, the forums drums started to beat, was there a problem, would he run, well that speculation was put to bed very quickly and I suppose anyone that got on again at the 3’s I say well done as now he has been backed once more into 5/4 even stronger than before.
His nearest adversary in the market is Nicky Henderson’s ‘Altior‘ who has been subject of a lot of money coming for the High Chaparral six year old and is now as low as 9/2 which is half his odds a weeks ago. He was a fairly useful bumper horse finishing behind the likes of Barters Hill in the Listed bumper at Newbury, with Buveur D’ Air in front of him that day to two and a half lengths I would be surprised to see that form being reversed. He by passed the Cheltenham and Aintree festival that year and headed for the Punchestown festival where he put a very under par perfomance in the Champion bumper behind Bellshill, but his career was just about to start and after a six month break over the summer he was unleashed by Nicky Henderson around the Novice hurdling ranks where he made a pleasing debut when winnng at Chepstow by a large distance. Subsequently Seven Barrows had a nice recruit in their yard and he was upped in class at Ascot where he would take on the inform John Ferguson’s Vancouverite. At odds of 4/5 he struggled to fend off an unlikely contender in Harry Skelton’s Ch’ Tibello, the 14/1 shot gave the favourite something to think about in the closing stages, but Altior asserted when challenged and found that little extra to record a one and a half length victory, his nearest market rival Vancourverite never turned up and was a wayward twenty lengths behind in third.
After what looked an average scare at Ascot he was stepped up into Listed company over course and distance in the Grade 2 Supreme Novices trial and again just pulled out enough to beat John Ferguson’s Maputo by half a length. Now considering John Ferguson’s yard were in blistering form at the time you could say his small margin win was probably better than it looked. A month off was given and he re-appeared on Boxing day at the King George meeting at Kempton and this time he did not disappoint when slamming Willie Mullin’s Open Eagle by thirteen lengths, it is his best form to date with the runner up going on to finish behind stable mate Thomas Hobson in the Grade 2 Leamington Novices hurdle at Warwick and has more recently given this form a boost by winning on his return to Warwick two weeks ago. Whilst the market was pushing out Min there was significant money comin gin for Altior who is now second favourite, is he a challenger to Min, he has a tenancity to battle which we have failed to see from Min yet, but the question for me is he going to be able to match Min who just seems to go through the gears for fun.
It will be interesting to see where Wilie Mullin’s ‘Yorkhill‘ appears, he is curently 8/1 for both which includes the Neptune on the second day, now I am not expert and would love to be a fly on Willie Mullin’s kitchen wall, but I would of thought the Neptune would of been the best avenue as for me when he won his maiden hurdle at Punchestown he looked like a horse that would prefer a good test of stamina and the two and three quarter miles around Cheltenham would probably set him alight. Cannot take away that he seems to have a lot of potential what ever race he appears in as you cannot take away the fact he just cruised into the race at Sandown in the Grade 1 Tolworth Novices Hurdle when beating O O Seven and Agrapart in good style. and with Agrapart paying the winner more compliments when landing the Grade 3 Betfair Hurdle for trainer Nick Williams you have to wonder what is his agenda. Does he have the speed to land a Supreme, he looks to have an engine on him and could give Mullin’s a 1-2 in the race, but I would have to wait until the day to see where the Wylies decide which is the best route to take, if turning up in the Supreme I would not put anyone off having a little dabble on him.
One that has come for a lot of support recently and was one that was put on my tracker when beating Tombstone in the Grade 1 Deloitte Novices Hurdle recently and again is trained by that man Willie Mullin’s ‘Bleu Et Rouge‘ Now he is subject of a serious gamble apparently and this could be Ireland talking or JP just backing all his horses in the race, but he has dropped from 50/1 in to 12s over the past few days. How strong was the Deloitte this year, Bellshill never turned up for the second time at Leopardstown in his career and could just be a horse that does not handle the course, Tombstone had every chance to win the race to be run out of it in the cloisng stages by a horse that wanted it more along with a driving Barry Geraghty who could be back on board.
On that note I could probably move on to ‘Tombstone‘. who’s run when second to Willie Mullin’s Long Dog in the Grade 1 Champion’s Novice Hurdle at Leopardstwon over the Christmas period was interesting. He had Bleu Et Rouge four lengths back in fourth that day, and that form has reversed and this is what is troubling me that for me he looks to want further and a longer test of stamina as I think two miles around Cheltenham is going to be too sharp for him considering he won his maiden over two and a quarter back in November and has really not sparkled being dropped in trip, interesting he has a shot to go into the Neptune which would bring him out of himself I think.
With Willie Mullin’s attempting to win this for the fourth time in a row, I am having difficulties in trying to get the County Carlow trainer beaten, I feel there are chinks in quiet a few of these, especially Tombstone who I would prefer to see go the Neptune route, Bleu Et Rouge who’s subject of this big market move looks not convincing for me, Yorkhill if turning up is the most interesting contender, but again i personally feel that the further he goes the better he will become, so this leaves me with Altior and Min, Nicky Henderson has never won this race and even though he has a good chance here with Altior I cannot see him beating Min who I feel will have too many gears for the entire field, once Ruby has Min in front turning for home I can see him powering him over the last and up the hill to glory and another bookie bashing in the first race.
MIN : 3pt Win @ 5/4 – Will try BOG on the day to see if the bookies want to be generous.
Nicky Henderson has won the race twice, most recently with flown in 1992.
