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Eight or nine months is a long time in racing isn’t it?
Last year no 5yo could possibly win the Champion
Now we have Binocular who is a good thing in some quarters even
at this early stage of the season.
If Katchit hadn’t won last year, what price Binocular today?Those responsible for allocating these marks are doing all of us a disservice.
From top to bottom this is happening.A horse winning a handicap by twenty lengths these days is getting a 20lb hike in the weights regardless of its previous form or the make up of the race it won.Although I do have sympathy with the handicpper in many cases where it is difficult to give a horse its first rating with any real certainty but this course of action is being applied to exposed performers with little or no previous winning records.However, the handicapper doesn’t drop a horse 20lb the minute it gets beaten 20 lengths It takes at least a few disappointments to accord a drop in the ratings.
I suggest they put a limit on the amount a horse can be raised in one hit.The handicappers work at present is too literal.
They don’t appear to be catering for circumstance and conditions on the day and the longer this is going on the more the ratings are becoming confused.My biggest bug bear is Master Minded’s rating.He is a very good horse but yet too prove himself a true champion which his rating suggests he is.When he does it fine.I don’t believe what I saw in the Champion Chase and felt Aintree vindicated my view.Do you think he can be rated a better horse than Moscow Flyer at this stage of his career??
I thoroughly agree.
What do you think about Air Force One being best going right handed.
I think his jumping will be put under great pressure going lefthanded.
What makes you think his form is good enough ??Bahram – did you have mixed feelings same as me to see Jack the Giant prove his previous handicap marfk all wrong at Ascot? Must surely have gone close in the Padd Power.
It was frustrating especially as two miles is not his trip.But we will hopefully still have our day.
I’m going to get all bold now and state that if Tidal Bay doesn’t go for the race and the ground is good on the day,Jack The Giant is the nap for the Ryanair Chase at the Cheltenham Festival.
If he stays sound this horse will go right to the very top.There you go,got it off my chest.
Comments?I have enjoyed watching Kauto Star and he has all the attributes of a top class chaser.He’s toughness and bravery is unquestionable in my mind.
So why has he been beaten in three of his last four starts??
He has had a lot of demanding races.
Also I would suggest that as he approaches the age of nine this French bred is in decline.
It is an undeniable truth that French breds mature and decline earlier in their racing life.A combination of this and his hard races suggest to me time is short for Kauto Star.
At Kempton he will have everything in his favour.Can he still win?I hope so but he is much more vulnerable than in either of the past two renewals.If it is a mudbath,I think Grasshopper has a very attractive bet with 150ish about Verasi.He may lack the class but you don’t need class in deep mud.
I agree with Peruvian Chief that Air Force One has a solid chance.But all his best form is right handed and that worries me a great deal.His trainer is not for me either.
I don’t think there is anything wrong in the Nicholls yard,he is just having one of those weeks which every serious punter on here has had before and will have in the future i.e doing the right thing and it going pear shaped.I think it’s called life.
However,unless Big Bucks is a much better jumper than he was last year he will find this very tough and 4/1 is about the trainer rather than the horse.Island Flyer Dear Villez and Albertas Run are my new shortlist.
The first two may lack the class and for the third I have to assume a big improvement from Carlisle.
Only price will now get me to bet on this race and single figures is too short for Island Flyer in a Hennessy.Are you real David Johnson ?
I mean if you are not, then why post under his name. If you are then i understand.
Freedom of speech is not there to be abused, and several on here have done that. What has Clare Balding sexuality got to do with her job ?
Is that what freedom of speech is for ?
Don’t get all righteous and politically correct with me,pal.
If I think a presenter is good or bad I’ll exercise my freedom of speech
to say so.
Oh and I have met Luke Harvey to refer to your earlier post and IMO he is
a twit.If i’ve met you and you have reason to call me a vile chav so be it.
I doubt it somehow and note your double standards of abusing free speech.I don’t have a personal record, but the info is available to anyone at :
thank you ap you have enlightened an ignorant man.
The Leicester readings reflect the fact that the hurdle races take place on the flat course, which is watered during the summer, whereas the chases are on a separate track that isn’t watered or used for any other purpose.
As I understand it, the going stick numbers are only of use for comparing different meetings at the same track, not for comparisons from course to course. In theory, over a period of years, a pattern will develop for each track that will enable us to set the scale for that track.
This is already possible for some tracks if you have the records. For example, the reading of 6.2 for Cheltenham on Friday morning told me it would be genuine soft ground. There hasn’t been a lower pre race reading in recent years on the Old Course.
I agree entirely.Until the history of the going stick readings are regularly printed in the press for meetings at the track in question for say the past ten meetings at least they are of no value to anyone.Except of course if you have kept a personal record.
It sounds as if you have this and I would love to have a copy.
Please.
Please nicely.
Oh go on,please really nicely!The make up of this race has changed significantly in the past few years.
Whereas before it was very difficult to win on seasonal debut(one winner on sd from at least 95 to 2004 inclusive) the last three winners have all won on seasonal debut.
Carrying 11st plus was always a difficult task ( 1 win from 95 to 02 inclusive) but 4 of the last five have carried such a weight.
Training methods are probably responsible for the former.
11 of the last thirteen winners won on their previous start( the other two finished second).
11 /13 won over 3miles on their previous start.
3/13 winners were rated 150+ but that includes 2 of the last three renewals.
9/13 have been aged six or seven.including the last five winners.All these stats are okay but IMO you can’t be too pedantic with them, but they are a guide.
My shortlist presently is Island Flyer, Dear Villez, Big Bucks, Nenuphar Collonges and Air Force One.
Two of them I have grave doubts about but I’ve been wrong before and they still have a solid chance. Also you’ll note I haven’t stuck strictly to the stats I have quoted.
What do you think and who do you like personally?
I think you’re underestimating Crack Away Jack a bit, bahram.
He didn’t find it difficult to give Squadron 16lbs at Chepstow, and that one has subsequently gone on to frank the form more than adequately, imo. I have Crack Away Jack on 155 already (with the promise of more to come), and reckon a 165 performance will be more than good enough to win the Champion Hurdle.
I do think he is vulnerable over Saturday’s trip of 2m3f though, and take Elusive Dream to win that particular race, on his way to humiliating Pettifour in the Stayers.
Our opinions aren’t a million miles apart are they.He is a good horse but I am told he is 6/4 for Saturdays race and favourite for the Champion which IMO is ridiculous.
He may win on Sat but is not a betting proposition with other similar types and plenty of proven performers.
I agree, Elusive Dream is an equally progressive sort as CAJ.GUYS!!!!
I only said who I liked and who I didn’t and now apparently I’ve got a chip on my shoulder!
If you like the Steve and Lydia show on RUK thats fine
I don’t personally.
Under presenters I like I listed public schoolboys such as Angus McNae.
I’m not class prejudice I just have an opinion.
If I am wrong about the majority coming from such a background prove it and I’ll put my hands up and say I was wrong.
By the way, I bet a large steak dinner Chapman is.
Pass the mustard!
I think Franchoek will go the furthest of these but I don’t think the conditions are ideal for him on Saturday. He is a quality 3m hurdler in the making but his best may not be seen till next season.
Crack Away Jack is a very good prospect and could continue to progress.
Presently, his form probably allows him a rating of 150 and I would have thought he can go higher.But that still leaves him a long way from being a Champion Hurdle prospect currently and his price for that race is based around media hype, something we should all fear!Chapman is just another ex public school boy/girl that proliferate the media of our beloved sport.
Most of them don’t know the backend from the front of a racehorse and seem to think that reciting the formbook over and over again is acceptable and qualifies them as knowing what they are talking about.Rubbish Presenters:John McWillock, Lydia ‘aftertime’Hislop,Steve’On the Fence’Mellish,Paul ‘Mumbo Jumbo’northern aristocracyso dull I can’t remember his name,James’Pompous’Willoughby,Robert’Oh I’m at the races!!’ Cooper,Luke ‘I’m a Twit aren’t I!!’Harvey,Johnathan ‘I’ve spent my whole life racing and still can’t understand whats important’Neesom and many more.
Good Presenters:Graham Cunningham,David Duggan,Jason Weaver,Dykey Balding,Giggling Carson,Ray Cochrane,Jim ‘Lovely Boy’McGrath,Angus’Open neck shirt’McNae,Eddie’Is it a wig or not?Freemantle,
Chapman:Sometimes I like him sometimes I don’t.
The rest you can take em or leave em
What do you lot think?I think there’s a space after a comma and calling Miss Balding Dykey is a bit much. Did you work in racing or with horses?
There are people I work with who’ve been in my industry for years but that doesn’t preclude from being useless..
Your comments are reciprocally xenophobic (if that is a phrase I can use)..
My grammatical inconsistencies aside, Miss Balding is a self confessed home team player (by the way you should have used quotation marks when quoting ‘Dykey’).
Although grammatically you are once again at fault with the use of the word xenophobic, my assumption is that you consider me to either hate or be fearful of the class from which I have suggested the majority of these people come. This is not so. My comments are based on my personal opinion of the individual presenters listed and they are mostly accompanied by a phrase to describe them and to lighten the discussion.
Indeed you will note I like a number of them, not hate them all as a xenophobic would.
The fact there are so many ex Oxford/Cambridge students working in the racing media is no coincidence and substantiate my view.
Yes I do work in the racing media.Chapman is just another ex public school boy/girl that proliferate the media of our beloved sport.
Most of them don’t know the backend from the front of a racehorse and seem to think that reciting the formbook over and over again is acceptable and qualifies them as knowing what they are talking about.Rubbish Presenters:John McWillock, Lydia ‘aftertime’Hislop,Steve’On the Fence’Mellish,Paul ‘Mumbo Jumbo’northern aristocracyso dull I can’t remember his name,James’Pompous’Willoughby,Robert’Oh I’m at the races!!’ Cooper,Luke ‘I’m a Twit aren’t I!!’Harvey,Johnathan ‘I’ve spent my whole life racing and still can’t understand whats important’Neesom and many more.
Good Presenters:Graham Cunningham,David Duggan,Jason Weaver,Dykey Balding,Giggling Carson,Ray Cochrane,Jim ‘Lovely Boy’McGrath,Angus’Open neck shirt’McNae,Eddie’Is it a wig or not?Freemantle,
Chapman:Sometimes I like him sometimes I don’t.
The rest you can take em or leave em
What do you lot think?Pardon my cynacism but have we got a Jim Bolger/New Approach scenario here regarding BARBERS SHOP.
Was not expected to run and consequently was available at 169/1 on Betfair. Now trading at around 8’s. Looks progressive and potentially well handicapped with the Henderson team flying.
Also a hold up horse. With Ashley Brook, Yes Sir, Imperial Commander and Patman Du Charmil in the race, it could very well be set up for something running off the pace.
Stan is a big price at 20’s too. Ran a nice reappearance race over an inadequate trip at Ascot. Coleman takes a valuable 3 pounds off, has course and distance form and ended last season seemingly improving.
They are my two against the field.
I agree entirely with the Bolger comparison.
Thing is the conceited press boys like Henderson because he makes
them feel special.Bolger is not interested in them.There are no headlines now about the betting public being put away are there?HypocritesCome on lads, dammed if he says what the probable running plans are, dammed if he doesn’t. If you criticise trainers for saying this type of thing then pretty soon they won’t say anything.
At the time Henderson said Jack The Giant was going for the PP he thought the ground likely to be no worse than good-soft. So Barber Shop was likely to go for the Graduation Chase.
Then it became evident it would be soft going, so plans were changed, simple as that. So what if punters got their fingers burnt! Buyer beware.
Henderson did not intentionally put punters away and neither did Bolger.
Mark
Absolutely Mark.Neither trainer intentionally put anyone away.The point I was making is that the majority of the press are too full of their own self importance.They publicly castigated Bolger yet they say nothing about Henderson for doing the same thing.It would appear that with the majority of the press it is one rule for their mates etc.
