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Have you ever considered that emotion may have got the better of him with his statements re his ride? Perhaps in a few weeks or months he will come out and say the best horse won on the day. When you believe a horse is unbeatable, it must be tough to accept it has been beaten. Excuses and reasons will be manifold in such circumstances. The decency of the guy could be demonstrated by his desire to be the scapegoat for the horse and allow her to enter the pantheon of greats with her reputation as glowing as possible.
Watertight, my [expletive].
Zip
TAPK:
The sooner you realise Mike Smith used this years Classic as a public stage to showboat the inimitable talents of Zenyatta the sooner you will accept why she lost! Very rare you see a jockey make a catastrophic error of judgement and then panic publicly during the race,it was as close to a nervous breakdown on horseback as i have seen! Shocking ride,simple as that! Zenyatta should be 20 wins from 20 starts,no ifs and buts Zip.
The sooner you reread this post, TAPK, and realise it gives no evidence or insight into your "theory," the sooner we can all go to bed accepting Zen was beaten fair and square. Maybe the jockey panicked because he thought: "sh*t, We’re not going to be good enough, that horse isn’t stopping in front."
Hmmm, now that never happens in racing, does it?
Maybe your experience of dirt riding in grade 1’s could garner some indisputable insight here?
Zip
If ‘sitting on the fence’ is the alternative to reaching hard and fast conclusions and labelling them as ‘fact’ based on nothing but conjecture, speculation and a ‘sickly feeling’ I’ll sit tight thanks tapk.
Sometimes us ‘fence sitters’ are the only thing standing between good men and a lynch mob.
By the way, there was a very good battle for 3rd too in the race. Lookin at Lucky was nailed by Fly Down. You’ll never guess where Fly Down was turning in to the straight. Another bad ride?
Nulty,
The OTT stuff from Chapman (who else) was about judging the ride by distance Zenyatta was behind the leader. Where as he should have judged it by the early distance between winner and Zenyatta.
The leaders went off far too quickly, and mis-judged the pace to a far greater degree than Mike Smith.
But not for the first time, Chappers exaggerates and lets emotion win.
Leader’s jockey’s didn’t misjudge the pace Ginge
….they my friend were chancing their arm realsiing the only hope they had was that their mounts could get away with it and puk off a shock.
Mike Smith got it wrong plain and simple…..if I am wrong answer these questions…..1. would he ride the horse exactly the same way again? 2. why do you think she clearly the best horse in the race was beaten?
IMO You can’t give the best the same start as you do meoderate animals he did and he paid the price.
Fist,
There is nothing wrong with trying to pinch the race by getting too far in front for those behind to catch up. as the leaders tried to do. But to have any chance of staying there at the finish, they needed to go 10 furlong pace early and not 8 or 7 furlong pace. The leading jockeys should have realised the pace was too quick and reined back.Those placed at the finish were all held up. You are still judging Mike Smith’s ride by the early distance between Zenyatta and the leaders (who went off too fast). To get a better picture, judge it by where she was in relation to the winner and third.
To answer your questions:
1) If Mike Smith rode the race again he would try and get a little (and I do mean a little) closer to Blame early. But all the evidence on the day suggests Zenyatta did not want to get closer early.2) If you believed the hype then you might think Zenyatta was "clearly the best horse". But I’d think most good form judges would say she had the "best form", but not by far.
Value Is EverythingSometimes us ‘fence sitters’ are the only thing standing between good men and a lynch mob.
Succinctly put Sean,you being the Grey man suggests your opinion isn"t as white as the good men then but not black enough to agree that it was an absolute shocker? I sense indecision in your post!
2) If you believed the hype then you might think Zenyatta was "clearly the best horse". But I’d think most good form judges would say she had the "best form", but not by far.
Best form by a country mile more like! Zenyatta went past
Twice Over
the dual Champion stakes winner comfortably last year, i said earlier on this year if she came over for this years Champion stakes i would make her 2/1 fav,that was when Twice Over was the 4/1 fav! I reckon Henrys 5yo was probably a 4lb better horse this year than last but i would still make the mare 3lb better than him,Henry said after last years Classic that Twice Over had ran the best race of his career,it doesn"t take a very wise man to conclude from collateral form Zenyatta should have eaten that lot for dinner,Twice Over would have!
This thread certainly shows just how poor some so called judges on here cant see what is blatantly the worst ride ever! Stop the tape after 2 furlongs and say What happens next? I can see it being used on Question of sport its so bad!If the Champion Stakes were on synthetics TAPK, I’d have made Zenyatta shorter than 2/1 to beat that lot.
Although with a very slowly run race, she would have found it difficult to come from last place.With Zenyatta a little below form it is a shame Twice Over was not in this years Classic. As he’d have gone close to winning.
Going in to the BC Classic Zenyatta only had a few pounds (if that) in hand of her closest rivals, Quality Road for one. With others (like Blame) capable of improving in to serious rivals. Apart from his final start prior to the race, his record is of a progressive racehorse.
I think you under-estimated some of her rivals. Some punters need to realise, form is not how many wins a horse has, it is how far each horse beat the next.
Value Is EverythingThis thread certainly shows just how poor some so called judges on here cant see what is blatantly the worst ride ever! Stop the tape after 2 furlongs and say What happens next? I can see it being used on Question of sport its so bad!
YET AGAIN!
You are judging her position against the LEADERS, who it has been PROVEN went off FAR too quickly! If Zenyatta took on Starspangledbanner over 10 furlongs, Starspangledbanner goes off at 6 furlong pace – Would you expect Zenyatta to be a lemgth behind Starspangledbanner after four furlongs? Or well behind, only to catch the sprinter in the final stretch? Zenyatta DID beat all those suicidal leaders with ease!
STOP judging Zenyatta’s pace by those leaders!
Judge Zenyatta’s position against the WINNER and THIRD, who were BOTH HELD UP a lot nearer the back of the race than front.
Some so called "judges" on here don’t seem to understand pace and how it effects races.
Value Is Everything- Total Posts 17716
If the Champion Stakes were on synthetics TAPK, I’d have made Zenyatta shorter than 2/1 to beat that lot.
:lol: Although with a very slowly run race, she would have found it difficult to come from last place.
With Zenyatta a little below form it is a shame Twice Over was not in this years Classic. As he’d have gone close to winning.
Going in to the BC Classic Zenyatta only had a few pounds (if that) in hand of her closest rivals, Quality Road for one. With others (like Blame) capable of improving in to serious rivals. Apart from his final start prior to the race, his record is of a progressive racehorse.
I think you under-estimated some of her rivals. Some punters need to realise,
form is not how many wins a horse has, it is how far each horse beat the next.
Ginger
Even on your own limited understanding of form, the above is not only contradictory, but also plainly absurd.The leaders you talk about finished out the back, they went way too fast, it probably wasn’t Smith’s greatest day, however the reactions are way over the top, she was 5L behind the winner before they hit the final bend.
JohnJ
Well said – I was actually in the stands watching it, and as they passed me on the first circuit I thought this is more like a disney movie than a real life Grade 1 event.
But you are right – everyone has focused on the distance between Zenyatta and Haynesfield/Quality Road as opposed to the considerably smaller gap, throuoghout the race, to Blame.
Mike Smith’s reaction in the press conference said it all and I must say I stood at the jockey’s "corridor" to the jockeys room after the 2nd (non-BC) race on Saturday and Smith took an age to get from the entrance of the chute to the jockeys room. Why? Because he stopped and signed every autograph he was asked to, and spoke to everyone (including myself)- a total gentleman acutely aware, it seemed, of the magnitude of the event that was about to ensue. Most touching was the toddler wearing the Zenyatta colours whom Smith gladly held whilst mum and dad took a cherished photo.
I only just watched his post race press conference and it nearly made me cry. I am not for a moment trying to make excuses here. The mare should have won, but no way was she set 35 lengths to make up – as JJD says, 5-6 at best. Quality Road btw DID NOT impede Zenyatta turning in (as ATR judges also seemed to blame Mike Smith for failing to avoid).
Smith also got slagged for taking off a set of goggles – fine, just ride on Mike "blind" with specs covered in dirt.
Bascially Mike Smith should have had the mare in the outer lane turning in, or else on the tail of Blame – the latter tactic though would probably still have seen her beat – she is a big lumbering giant who needs winding up – so basically Smith should have gone wide instead of trying to mirror the ride in last year’s renewal – where he got some lucky breaks – and I am sure he would have won.
As for Big Mac’s tirade over whip abuse – to my eyes Smiths action was very low – nowhere near shoulder height, and I am sure the mare was not "abused" as Big Mac claimed. Compare the whip action with that of Tom Queally who, for the second year running, cut Midday in two – this time clearly trying to make up for his poor tactical awareness through the race.
As for Big Mac’s tirade over whip abuse – to my eyes Smiths action was very low – nowhere near shoulder height, and I am sure the mare was not "abused" as Big Mac claimed. Compare the whip action with that of Tom Queally who, for the second year running, cut Midday in two – this time clearly trying to make up for his poor tactical awareness through the race.
The whip use was ridiculous – just panic mode. Many of those hits weren’t needed, many of them couldn’t make difference. How quick can a horse "respond" to five quick-fire hits? 22 was what some counted in all. Smith himself got unbalanced in the straight through the rapid whip use.
If the Champion Stakes were on synthetics TAPK, I’d have made Zenyatta shorter than 2/1 to beat that lot.
:lol: Although with a very slowly run race, she would have found it difficult to come from last place.
With Zenyatta a little below form it is a shame Twice Over was not in this years Classic. As he’d have gone close to winning.
Going in to the BC Classic Zenyatta only had a few pounds (if that) in hand of her closest rivals, Quality Road for one. With others (like Blame) capable of improving in to serious rivals. Apart from his final start prior to the race, his record is of a progressive racehorse.
I think you under-estimated some of her rivals. Some punters need to realise,
form is not how many wins a horse has, it is how far each horse beat the next.
Ginger
Even on your own limited understanding of form, the above is not only contradictory, but also plainly absurd.Why?
If form were all about how many wins a horse has, Lang Shining is a better horse than Rip Van Winkle.
Value Is Everything- Total Posts 17716
Ginger
If form was simply"how far each horse beat the next"
then Zenyatta would be the same price whatever the suface.
Workforce beat Confront 6l in the King George, and his connections were bitterly disappointed – he beat the same horse the same distance in a racecourse trial over 1m, and they felt him ready to run in the Arc.
Go figure!I don’t think you understand what I mean Reet.
I made the proviso of surface (or going etc). Appologies, it was an over-simplification aimed at people who seem to believe just because a horse won 19 races, she MUST be so MUCH better than one who’s won 3 or 4. It does NOT.What matters is how a horse performs against the next horse and the next and so on. ie How ratings relate to each run; NOT how many wins a horse has to her name. For most of Zenyatta’s wins she did not need to be anywhere near her best, running against vastly inferior rivals. So her "rating" can not be put "up" for winning them.
As per your example, I rarely take any notice of gallops anyway. And a punter must take in to consideration horses not running to form in a certain race (Workforce, King George) or indeed running a few pounds below their best (Zenyatta BC Classic).
Value Is EverythingIn either game – life or football – the margin for error is so small. I mean, one half step too early, or too late, and you don’t quite make it. One half second too slow, too fast, you don’t quite catch it. The inches we need are everywhere around us.
We know, that when we add up all those inches that’s gonna make the f****** difference between winning and losing.
~ Any Given Sunday
The most crucial stage of this race is largely going unnoticed. I have analysed the race at different stages and come to this conclusion:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Et15M6wsPo
Zenyatta’s lack of experience on dirt at the highest level was the major contributing factor to her position in the first half of the race. Mike Smith made the correct decision in allowing his mare to adapt in her own time. There’s an old saying ‘Tell a gelding. Ask a mare. Discuss with a stallion’. If Smith had bullied Zenyatta early on, there’s every chance it may have been counter-productive and you don’t want to push a mare, particularly one the size of Zenyatta, to the extent where she becomes disheartened and says ‘enough‘ – that’s one argument she’s almost certainly going to win.
To those stating that she came from a similar position twelve months ago are missing the point. Dirt is a speed surface and you simply can not afford to give up as much ground as she did and expect to win, particularly at this level. She was essentially facing an uphill battle after the first half a mile. To make up as much ground as she did is testament to her ability – I struggle to think of another horse that could have made up that amount of ground.
The second crucial stage of the race came around the final bend. Smith switched to the inside of Paddy O’Prado but, in the process of making the move, ran into the backside of the weakening Quality Road.
Smith can be forgiven for this. Zenyatta had already made up a staggering amount of ground and asking her to corner seven-wide would be suicide – he had to take a chance up the inner. This bad fortune arguably cost Zenyatta the race, losing her both crucial momentum and lengths, but she still turned in within striking distance and once Smith brought her to the outside she was close enough if good enough.
This is where Smith made a small catalogue of errors that cost his mare the race.
People can argue all they like about how far back she was and whether or not she acted on the surface. The fact is that her ability got her into a position to win the race. She may have taken time to come to terms with the surface, but claims that she failed to act on it are folly considering how close she came to winning against top class dirt specialists.
Once Smith found daylight, just shy of 300 yards from the finish, he was flapping. He was incredibly untidy with the reins and failed to balance his mount. At this stage, a man with thirteen Breeders’ Cup victories to his name, made the biggest mistake of his career – he pulled the whip through to his left hand.
When you study the distance graphics on the screen (300 yards / 200 yards), you can clearly see that Zenyatta started to drift as a result of this decision. Zenyatta only starts flying once Smith pulls the whip through to his correct hand and, with both horses still in full flight, Zenyatta had her head in front two strides after the wire. Had Smith not made those costly errors, she would have been produced on the line, giving Blame no chance to fight back.
When you consider that the difference between success and failure were a couple of inches, ask yourself did these mistakes cost Zenyatta the race? The answer is yes.
What happened before the stretch is irrelevant because Zenyatta’s ability got her into a position to win the race. Sadly, Mike Smith’s wonderful ability deserted him during what could very well have been the defining moment of his career. S*** happens. Life goes on.
Of course, we all make mistakes and Mike Smith, who has played such an in integral part in the success of Zenyatta, should not he vilified. When the margin for error is so small, human beings can be forgiven for not being machines.
We all make mistakes.
The Breeders’ Cup Classic was billed as Zenyatta’s ’Quest For Perfection’. The only perfection I witnessed on Saturday night was Garrett Gomez’s textbook ride of a dirt specialist. Those inches he stole from Mike Smith were certainly the difference between winning and losing.
- Total Posts 17716
As per your example, I rarely take any notice of gallops anyway. And a punter must take in to consideration horses not running to form in a certain race (Workforce, King George) or indeed running a few pounds below their best (Zenyatta BC Classic).
Confront is a specialist miler, 12f is undoubtedly close to Workforce’s optimum – their relative form over the respective distances suggests a turnaround in the latter’s fortunes of some 20 – 25lb between the 2 meetings.
Clearly, Sir Michael does take notice of gallops, and does believe there’s more to form than how far one horse beats another.That’s just plain daft.
Everyone, not just SMS, knew Workforce ran stones below his best in the King George. Which is a mile and a half race. Therefore it is blindingly obvious Workforce would work better with Confront when Workforce was in better health.
You are judging a horse’s performance when clearly under the weather over a mile and a half; with a gallop which is highly unlikely to have been over the same 1m4f.
Your comparrison is utterly futile.
SMS knows how Workforce worked at
home
against Confront at all different stages of the season. It is that comparisson that SMS judges his work. Not over two different courses, over two different distances, at two different paces.
Value Is Everything
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