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Skybet currently offering 2/1 Enable to win by 4 or more lengths.
There seems to be a trend of big odds on shots getting beat at this meeting, will she succumb to this also?
I’ll take a shot at 2/1.
Wouldnt be surprised if she won this bu 10 lengths without being asked too many questions
2/1 for that is a good price, id take it
Small saver on nezwaah should the unthinkable happen lol
This looks a serious penalty kick but as Chivers said should the unthinkable happen then Queens Trust e/w at 12/1 looks the option.
But it is a race to watch rather than have a decent bet in!
I think Enable is a horse to buy money on, I really can’t see her losing unless something goes wrong.
If I was going to have a bet I’d probably do a straight forecast for her to beat Alluringly. The ground’s gone against Queen’s Trust and I worry about the trip for Nezwaah.
Basically, I just hope Enable absolutely bolts up and goes on to win the Arc.
think id be disappointed if she didn’t beat this field by at least 5 lengths, she should be absolutely miles clear
Five lengths is was, well done everybody.
That was a Key-Wrap field mind you.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Have a question for the masses – the general opinion in the media is that she is the best middle distance horse of both generations.
However, if you compare the times for both the Derby/Oaks and Voltiguer/Yorkshire Oaks (same trip and ground), Enable’s times have consistently been over 1 second slower.
Cracksman seems to have taken a marked step forward for having his mid summer break (with I am sure more improvement to come) and whilst connections seem more likely than not to stick to the plan of not running again this season, I would not be so sure that Enable is even the best middlle distance horse in her stable let alone the best in Europe.
The price disparity between the two for the Arc (many have Enable at odds on with Cracksman available at 10-1) is I think not a true reflection of their ability.
Thoughts?
The times dont matter so much when your walking group 1s by 5 lengths, she could have and would have gone faster and won further if required, if you look who is behind her then she is the #1 by someway, cracksmans win yesterday didnt show he had taken a massive step forward, he did what he should have don on ratings (couple lengths further means hes maybe improved another 2/3lbs) and if you tie in The fact that ulysses destroyed a field yesterday that cracksman just simply couldnt have on previous form it really does single enable out as THE best this year
Fact of the matter is cracksman is being kept away from enable and missing the arc and saving him for next year only confirms that in my opinion
Have a question for the masses – the general opinion in the media is that she is the best middle distance horse of both generations.
However, if you compare the times for both the Derby/Oaks and Voltiguer/Yorkshire Oaks (same trip and ground), Enable’s times have consistently been over 1 second slower.
Cracksman seems to have taken a marked step forward for having his mid summer break (with I am sure more improvement to come) and whilst connections seem more likely than not to stick to the plan of not running again this season, I would not be so sure that Enable is even the best middlle distance horse in her stable let alone the best in Europe.
The price disparity between the two for the Arc (many have Enable at odds on with Cracksman available at 10-1) is I think not a true reflection of their ability.
Thoughts?
Oaks compared to Derby, Irish Oaks commpared to Irish Oaks, Yorkshire Oaks compared to Voltigeur… In all the fillies races the pace was slower and therefore overall time is slower.
It’s not particularly the overall times of races that makes Enable exceptional, LD. It’s the burst of maintained speed.Cracksman is very good, the best three year old colt and on paper has a second favourite’s chance. But when it’s highly unlikely he’ll run bookmakers can afford to tempt punters in with a seemingly unbelievable 10/1 price. If it were NRNB Cracksman would be nearer half those odds.
Value Is EverythingNot saying she isn’t a great filly and her versatility to me is her best weapon, but the Cracksman I saw yesterday is very far removed from the early season version (and for a little better luck that version could have been a dual Derby winner).
Personally think Gosden might have been expecting him to win by a couple of lenghts in workman like style which would have supported the put him away until next year thoughts but the way he cut through horses to take up the running was a dimension he didn’t appear to have earlier in the season. Given his size and with another 6 weeks or so to the Arc he will only get stronger and improve again and I am not sure the same can be said about Enable (who you could argue is at the peak of her powers now).
Even at half the current odds I feel it would still be too big a price and I honestly think he could be her biggest danger, if connections change their minds…afterall Gosden has no problem running his biggest stars against each other especially since they are with different owners (see Jack Hobbs and Golden Horn in Dante & Derby) I can see him beating her.
Shortest priced bet I’ve ever had, 30/100.
I’m afraid to say I nibbled at a bit of the 1/3 myself in the end.
Prepare yourself for Enable to be drawn out in the carpark for the Arc!
I can see it being the smallest Arc field ever, Charles. Don’t think it matters where she’s drawn, remember when Frankie took Golden Horn out wide from the gate until getting a good position. Expect the same.
Value Is EverythingI can see it being the smallest Arc field ever, Charles. Don’t think it matters where she’s drawn, remember when Frankie took Golden Horn out wide from the gate until getting a good position. Expect the same.
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You have to go back to Rail Link who beat 7 rivals in 2006 (at a lost to explain what happened that year) and I just can see it being a single digit field as even superstars of the likes of Dancing Brave, Zarkava, Sea The Stars & Treve failed to scare off rivals so I can’t see Enable being able to do so – I would say that we will get somewhere in the region of between 15-17 runners for the race.
It’s not only that Enable is exceptional though, LD; reason why she’s so short in the market is just as much the the fact there’s very little quality to take her on. Don’t think I’ve seen a poorer French season than this. Take a look at my thread in the Horse Racing section, showing all French Group 1’s. If Brametot doesn’t make it (far from certain according to his trainer) they’ve got very little, and he’s 16/1. Next best french horses are Zarak and Waldgeist and they’re very beatable. Cracksman is unlikely to run again this year and Ulysses being aimed at the Breeders Cup and seems more likely to take the Champion Stakes route (would be favourite for that). Barney Roy and Churhill doubtful stayers and both around 100/1 on the exchanges. Is Winter going to step up to 1m4f to take on Enable? Currently around 33/1 to do so. Enable beat Idaho very easily. May be if it’s a sound surface Highland Reel could take her on. Order Of St George if it’s softer? Can see both last years second and third running well, but they’re hardly definite starters and are vulnerable to a real top notcher. I think if Enable is beaten it’s most likely to be by a Japanese horse, possibly Satono Diamond – but she’s still got at least 7 lbs in hand.
Value Is EverythingShe’s a wonderful filly – superb looker too, but visually, for me, Cracksman’s performance was better. While they both did what was expected, he absolutely tore it up like a horse very much on his way right to the top. Frankie talked down the Arc for him although his reasoning seemed odd. Did I hear him say Chantilly would be too tight for him at this stage of his career? I suspect the real reason is that he’d be a serious danger to Enable: not only might he miss the ride but he could also be beaten by him…a jock’s worse nightmare.
Khalid Abdullah has 4 Arcs to his name and Mister Oppenheimer just one. With a horse who’s fighting fit and improving and looks well up to the task, Mister O will surely find it very difficult to doff his hat and say to his rival ‘help yourself to Arc number 5.’
In fact, the prince might even encourage Cracksman’s participation. With 4 Arcs in the bag, how would the first one for his star sire suit him?
It’s all right talking about next year and how great it will be, that’s what the Riccis did with Vautour when they bypassed a Gold Cup for a Ryanair. Doubtless the connections of Neon Wolf, after going for the wrong race at the festival also consoled themselves with thoughts of next year. Next year is a long way off, a long, long way.
Connections of cracksman have continually played down how cracksman is no golden horn etc but is a great horse
What rating would we put on cracksmans performance yesterday? Beating a 113 horse as he liked, raise him what 5lbs for that to roughly 122 as venice beach probably ran to the 113 hes rated, so he would have to improve massively to touch enable on official ratings, not including the female allowance shed have
If she ran her rating in the arc as it stands just now of 126 cracksman would likely have to run to an or of 130 which he just simply wont because he isnt at that level
He won a group 2 yesterday as he liked whereas enable is winning group 1s as she likes
What if enable improves from the 126 during the arc, cracksman would then have to be a golden horn to beat her
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