- This topic has 30 replies, 15 voices, and was last updated 2 years, 10 months ago by
.
- Posts
I’m with you Green, I don’t think the Irish Oaks was run to suit her,
bit of a doddle and she’ll like the ground better here. Ryan has deserted
her for the fav, but he’s got it wrong in the past.Warm Heart 9/1 Bet365
I can’t have Savethelastdance on the ground. I just hope she runs a nice trial for the St Leger.
Town Moor in September, Aidan. You know it makes sense.
Poptronic e/w 40s (BOG).
A fun bet really, but seems an improving sort.
Best of luck to all
Free wind for me
Don’t rate the 3yos
Savethelastdance will be flat to the boards 4f out very surprised she’s not drifted
Al Husn & Novakai for me. Both good value.
Don’t fancy Savethelastdance at all on fast ground and flat track.
No wonder bookies make a fortune. The fav we all knew would struggle on that ground. Warm heart much better on sound surface but goes off at 9/1 and beats bluestocking by same distance as ribblesdale. I tipped the 1,2 but didn’t have a penny on.Thems the breaks.
Good analysis on this thread.
Just about every good judge I know agreed Moore might be on the wrong one for the first time in a while because of the quicker ground.
I backed Warm Heart too, but I’m having the staking plan from Hell this week and had a fraction on her of what I had on my main three (all losing) bets so far this week, bet her under the odds because I thought the price would collapse, couldn’t believe the drift and even the equally-tiny press up bet I also had didn’t get me off remand!
Roll on today!
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Savethelastdance has split opinion amongst the bookmakers. Hills has kept her as short as 4/1 for the St Leger but 8/1 is widely available and Bet365 are as big as 10/1 (presumably for 50p each way). That suggests there is some doubt she is going to Doncaster, especially since the same connections now have Continuous.
I expect her main target is going to be the Filly and Mare Group 1 at Ascot. 1m 4f, stiff track, soft ground. If she lines up, I will have as much as I can on.
Not that I think she’s good enough, CAS; but believe I heard AOB yesterday talking about an alternative for Savethelastdance being the Arc. Also saying it’ll be difficult to do the two races together. She looks crying out for the Leger on a softer surface to me, but I suppose Coolmore have plenty of St Leger types. On the other hand after Rodin’s display in the King George Coolmore don’t seem to have a top class mile and a half colt. Possibly Luxembourg but he hasn’t run to his best in either of two tries at the distance so far; whilst at the same time being pretty consistent at 1m2f – (difficult to think of excuses). Amazingly Savethelastdance is currently the shortest priced AOB horse in the Arc betting.
Value Is EverythingI suppose she would have her ground in the Arc but is she good enough, even allowing for the excellent record fillies have in the race in recent years? She is no Treve or Enable and there must be at least one colt that will beat her.
Because of her ground dependency there is only the arc,vermielle , or leger. If she does stay the leger distance she must be a great bet if its soft. Warm heart looks perfect for the fillies and mares at the breeders Cup. Galileo 99th group one. Hopefully one of these two brings up the 100 or maybe free wind might.
Savethelastdance is not up to Arc class as it stands, CAS. But Green and BigG are certainly right in that although the softer going suited her in the Irish Oaks and she ended up outstaying them… They didn’t seem to go that fast early. Therefore it wasn’t the true test of stamina it could’ve been. ie Although Savethelastdance’s form seems fairly exposed as short of tip top level mile and a half… A combination of a strongly run race on soft or heavy going at a mile and a half – could see more improvement. So – with a lack of mile and a half material to work with – I can see why Coolmore are considering it.
Value Is Everything
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.