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Following this weekends defeat at the hands of Altior, would you change his target from the Champion Chase to the Ryanair ?
He had the fitness advantage when they met, and the step up in distance would certainly be within his abilities as he has already won over 2m3f and 2m5f.
I know its another course on another day, but I cannot see any way that he can reverse the result if all is well with Altior.I don’t think Politologue jumped that well did he, only watched it the once so might be wrong, had he jumped better could of made a bit more of a race of it but agree he had plenty of match fitness on his side plus it was on going Altior wouldn’t have liked as such. It’s a big if but how many times do we see a horse off track a long time put in a very good display then run below par next time out especially in a big festival race? Toronado had wind/breathing problems and would run better off longer breaks rather than quicker returns although a month should be plenty of time in that regard, not sure what the success rate would be with horses having wind ops regard breaks between races.
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With the exception of the Aintree fall (when he looked to have the race won) which was on good ground all of his best form is on a much softer surface – he was clearly beaten for speed on soft ground at Newbury and you can only see Altior superior speed being much more pronounced with quicker conditions at the Festival, so a step up to the Ryanair is a viable alternative (a race more winnable for him even though I don’t think he would beat UDS).
However, the QMCC could likely cut up a bit and with all the speculation about whether Douvan will even make it, without him & Altior he would be the likely winner and Altior’s least impressive performance of last season was in the Arkle – so if he underperforms for any reason (and lets face it nobody saw coming what happened in last year’s race) how gutted would they be if they weren’t even in the race to take advantage of something happening.
My guess is he will run in the QMCC or nothing at all – for me though the Melling Chase looks tailor made for him as more often than not you don’t end up having to face either winner of the QMCC or Ryanair.
Seem to remember earlier in the season Paul Nicholls regretting running Politologue in the JLT, thinking he didn’t quite stay. Yes, Politologue has won over around the Ryanair trip but the form isn’t as good. May be that’s because he’s just improved since, but travels so well at 2m could be he’ll always be best at the minimum trip. “Outspeeded” at Newbury by a better racehorse, but – although winning – Altior wasn’t at his best at the Festival after successful in the Game Spirit. Possible that’ll happen again.
Champion Chase reallistically looks like Altior with a massive chance with Min clear second best (Politologue’s wins this season have been in weak renewals and/or picked up the pieces). Ryanair appears much more open, but that openness probably means many more runners… And with Politologue far from certain to stay the trip I’d say his best chance remains firmly over the 2m distance; a distance with more prestige too.
Value Is EverythingWon over 2m5f at both Ascot (good to soft) and Haydock (soft) so I don’t see the trip being the problem but his record at Cheltenham is not great – in 3 runs it reads UR in a Novice Hurdle, 20th in the Coral Cup & 4th in the JLT (which incidentally happened to be run on good ground).
As I said I believe he will run in the QMCC but he will need others to underperform to give him a realistic chance of winning but then stranger things have happened.
In a word, no.
You have to do right by the horse and run him over his best distance. Never run scared of one horse. Look at the champion chase last year, perfect example of why you should never run scared of one other horse.
I understand if there are 5 or 6 far better horses in the race than yours, but not one, maybe 2.
Agree with Tommy. He’s probably Nicholls stable star anyway
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Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Why. He got beat by possible the best 2 miler chaser we have seen for a good while, I would say possibly better that Sprinter Sacre.
However you should never be afraid of one horse and if Altior under performed I think he would win it as I think he is the second best 2 mile chaser aroundWon over 2m5f at both Ascot (good to soft) and Haydock (soft) so I don’t see the trip being the problem but his record at Cheltenham is not great – in 3 runs it reads UR in a Novice Hurdle, 20th in the Coral Cup & 4th in the JLT (which incidentally happened to be run on good ground).
Yes LD, he won over those longer trips and therefore has a chance of being as good at the Ryanair distance. But – so far – his form at 2m is better than his form at around 2m5f. So there’s a question of his ability at the longer distance which needs to be taken in to account when assessing whether to go for the Champion or Ryanair.
imo He’s no more than 50/50 to be as effective in the Ryanair.
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