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I think the clock is hard work on the flat for anything over a mile anyway. How many top horses these days are bred to endlessly gallop 12f say? Tactical speed is going to be increasingly an element
When you get to the jumps…
But on the other hand, on the jumps, certain horses will be better served by slow small fields of course, so knowing whats what is important . But also on the jumps the visual assessment of pace is far easier…surely?
I agree with you grasshopper that it doesnt matter as much on the jumps, however i find that most of the tactics used to guage flat horses to be useless on the jumps.
In theory it should matter even though they are all slower for having jumps, but its the way that the national hunt season operates that dictates how the form translates. As in my opinion it is more a season of training and preperation than breeding and ability.
For example, if you take two identical horses with the exact same stamina limitations, but one is better prepped than the other, that horse can take two or three lengths off its rival at every obstacle, then that horse will win a ten obstacle race by at least 20 lengths.
For this reason i do not bet on jumps unless i hear something as its so hard to tell what is prepped as i see non triers/unprepped horses all the time. This is obviously just a matter of perspective and personal preference and not an attempt to get into the jumps/flat debate, as obviously everyone will prefer one to the other.
Quote: from Bulwark on 6:54 pm on Sep. 23, 2006[br]I totally agree with what EC is trying to say.
It is a FACT that in a standrard time on fast ground a 1m2f horse can win 1m4f races, look at the finish of the king george for example, electrocutionist nearly won it and he was a 1m2f horse (or are people now going to question that), he beat hearts cry who is a very good 1m4f horse, it was only the sheer class of hurricane run that beat him for toe.
There was nothing of anywhere that class at epsom this year…
"But sir percy beat Dylan Thomas and he has went on to win 2 group1s?
Yes, Sir Percy beat Dylan Thomas, but so did Dragon dancer, who (despite not being injured since) has since proved himself to be listed/low group class at best. Not only that but dylan thomas routed absolutely dragon dancer at the curragh, despite the fact that he was fading to him at epsom. So what does that say? Perhaps that Dylan Thomas was under par at epsom? Or is that just impossible to believe.
"Sir percy was powering his way through horses of equal class at epsom".
For anyone who really thinks that – Oh Dear!
It is all well and good blindly supporting a horse because it has the title "Derby winner" (because lets face it, if he’d thrown down the same performance in the king edward or GP Du Paris we wouldnt even be having this conversation). ÂÂÂ
I can see that you are havng trouble understanding the concept of pace (and probably wonder how it has any relevance in racing), so i’ll explain like this, George Washington is a sprinter/miler yet if they cantered the first mile of the derby then hed win guaranteed because hes the fastest horse, sir percy is a 1m2f horse and so to a lesser exagerated extent this is what he done.
If you still cant grasp that then i wont keep going but for your own good people please dont put your mortage on him handling a fast gallop on soft ground at longchamp because he is a 1m2f horse and it wont happen.
I do realise that if he does win at a fast gallop then i will look quite the fool and please feel free to take the mick but i am condfident that its not going to happen. He can only win a slow arc.<br>
Well first of all thanks for that somewhat patronising posting….Im sure however that you rather missed the point. Im not a member of the SP fanclub and im quite happy with his current rating but Im still going to dispute some of what your saying.
FIrstly, you have exaggerated….perhaps as an example…the issue of pace to some extent.  For one thing, at anything resembling racespeed, George washington or any other specialist miler would not win a 12furlong race.  A slow race and a tight track will definitly buy a nonstayer leverage but I can guarantee you it wont run into furlongs .  I do actually understand what EC is saying when he talks about the difference between outsprinting the opposition at the end of the slow race because we see that every day and it can make some ordinary horses look very good and then they regularly get done in more truly run race. ÂÂÂ
There is or there are certain horses which are especially good  at kicking off a slow pace.  These horses however are not horses that are then better suited to shorter distance, there just suited to races run like that.  Personally I often found that they were horses that looked great on the gallops. ÂÂÂ
But the big difference here is that of course we know Sir Percy is a very good horse who is well capable of winning decent races off a fast pace and I personally find it hard to believe that any horse with his ability at a mile would  have to worry about how fast they go in a race, providing he truly gets a mile an a half. ÂÂÂ
Unless of course, anyone can name a raft of horses who comfortably stays 12 furlongs but were far better milers???  Im pretty sure that a fast horse who stays a distance always beats a slow horse who stays the distance. ÂÂÂ
<br>Anyhow thats not what I think most SP fans find annoying.  I think there a bit p**s<br>ed off because people are saying, he definitly wont stay a tough 12 furlong race with no other reason then the fact that he hasnt tried it yet.
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(Edited by SirHarryLewis at 10:35 pm on Sep. 23, 2006)
SHL
Grass
I’m not the proper person to ask to explain (bit crap at putting stuff into words tbh and don’t do jumps speedfigures, but have used TF’s)  if a horse clocked say 120 timefigure and another clocked 116 timefigure, another 115, another 115 and so on at the same course, ground/distance,  once i’d looked at how each figure was achieved and satisfied that the 120 was  a true reflection of the performance and the other figures likewise, i know i’d be backing when they meet at that course on the same ground
<br>If you’ve subscribe to TF, buy the Sportsman, use the figures as part of your armoury, but remember ther are a few  others probably using the same,
if you’ve got the time and the inclination compile yer own, but  it’s time consuming keeping on top of all the racing in this country
The hardest part is compiling the standards, but if you don’t want to do yer own, use say Mordins, Raceforms, RP’s , you can use these to work out the going and as you go along record every race  to build a database of times for each couirse/distance to use at a later date for compiling yer own standards
(Edited by Simon Rowlands at 10:29 pm on Sep. 23, 2006)
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(Edited by empty wallet at 11:14 pm on Sep. 23, 2006)
Grass
I’ve tried to show yer in the example, i’m afraid i can’t do no more, the best way to find out is along side you normal analysis run another analysis which include timefigures and see if they work
Read my signiture, it’s true imhaho ;)
On fast ground a horse who typically doesnt stay and is better over shorter will generally find it easier to keep momentum going as there is no ground resistance and so his stamina is not fully tested. On softer conditions that horse is A LOT less likely to stay.
At a slow gallop it will also let a speedier horse play his turn of foot against horses with more stamina and less speed who will look flat footed by comparison, because the speedy horse will again not have his stamina tested by the slow gallop.
When you put these two factors together, easy pace and fast ground a horse can stay outside their compass to the extent of furlongs (and were talking seconds here, not tens of seconds).
It was these two factors and some precision timing by martin dwyer with a lack of any group1 opposition on the day that allowed sir percy to win (by playing his speed from the back ofd a sedate paceon fast ground) by a whisker.
The class of the opposition that day, the winning margin, the style of ride, the fact that his guineas run aswell as his derby run suggested he would be seen to better light at 1m2f (it was only speed he lacked against george washington, and he had to be run so as not test his stamina at epsom) together with the fact that hes actually a 1m2f horse on breeding is why i think hes a 1m2f horse.
Its his form over 1 mile and the fact that he won a1m4f race that was set up for a 1m2f horse in the style of a 1m2f horse with a rating of 120 that makes me think he isnt going to handle a fast paced 1m4f on soft ground with 10lbs improvement necessary to make the grade.
The fact that sir percy handled a fast pace in the guineas for 1mile doesnt mean that he can handle the same pace for an extra four furlongs and accelerate at the end and in fact its his performance in the guineas that strengthens my opinion that he will be seen in his true light at the arc.
I apologise if i come across as patronising but to me this is basic form assessment.
Ive got an example for you grasshopper (on the flat), look at how the rival fortunes of Bulwark (fast) and Sgt Cecil (slow above 1m6f) fluctuate with the pace of each race.
It was these two factors and some precision timing by martin dwyer with a lack of any group1 opposition on the day that allowed sir percy to win (by playing his speed from the back ofd a sedate paceon fast ground) by a whisker.
Thats a good post, but no group one that day? DT and sixties?
Also, bcause he was ridden that way doesnt mean that he had to be ridden that way. Dancing Braves career a good example..
In fact, with the exception of his debut and the first furlong of the Guineas, the Derby was the furthest back Sir Percy has sat.
Don’t forget, Bulwark, that SP is related to High Accolade who finished a good second in the Leger. We don’t know how far this horse can truly stay.
Your hypothesis about the Arc may bear fruit, though. Could be a small, (but infinitely select), field. In which case, I wouldn’t be surprised to see SP much more prominent.
Sixties and dylan thomas have since become group1 class but werent on the day as dragon dancer proves with dylan thomas, sixties icon had only just won a maiden at the time of the derby and wasnt even group1 class at royal ascot. Oratorio went on to win group1s last year but he definitely wasnt group1 class in the derby.
I agree that sir percy could prove me wrong but hes been screaming 1m2f at since his dewhurst win last year and i always like to see a horse batter the opposition so it always gets me to see a smart horse at the wrong distance.
Eg. Ive always wanted to see ad valorem go sprinting and with george washington hopefully on the coolmore older miler scene next year, hopefully ad valorem may now get a good sprint campaign instead of waiting for slow mile races where everything drops right.
Quote: from Bulwark on 11:57 pm on Sep. 23, 2006[br]On fast ground a horse who typically doesnt stay and is better over shorter will generally find it easier to keep momentum going as there is no ground resistance and so his stamina is not fully tested. On softer conditions that horse is A LOT less likely to stay.
At a slow gallop it will also let a speedier horse play his turn of foot against horses with more stamina and less speed who will look flat footed by comparison, because the speedy horse will again not have his stamina tested by the slow gallop.
When you put these two factors together, easy pace and fast ground a horse can stay outside their compass to the extent of furlongs (and were talking seconds here, not tens of seconds).
It was these two factors and some precision timing by martin dwyer with a lack of any group1 opposition on the day that allowed sir percy to win (by playing his speed from the back ofd a sedate paceon fast ground) by a whisker.
The class of the opposition that day, the winning margin, the style of ride, the fact that his guineas run aswell as his derby run suggested he would be seen to better light at 1m2f (it was only speed he lacked against george washington, and he had to be run so as not test his stamina at epsom) together with the fact that hes actually a 1m2f horse on breeding is why i think hes a 1m2f horse.
Its his form over 1 mile and the fact that he won a1m4f race that was set up for a 1m2f horse in the style of a 1m2f horse with a rating of 120 that makes me think he isnt going to handle a fast paced 1m4f on soft ground with 10lbs improvement necessary to make the grade.
The fact that sir percy handled a fast pace in the guineas for 1mile doesnt mean that he can handle the same pace for an extra four furlongs and accelerate at the end and in fact its his performance in the guineas that strengthens my opinion that he will be seen in his true light at the arc.
I apologise if i come across as patronising but to me this is basic form assessment.<br>
Well now your just repeating alot of what I said.
Bulwark …basic form asessment or not. The assertion that a horse who does not stay a yard beyond 10 furlongs with given pace and soft ground will actually get a whole 2 furlongs extra off a relatively slower pace and better ground is wrong….very wrong and Im sure most trainers and jockeys would agree with me on that. Its virtually impossible.
EC…I have respect pace and time settings but that doesnt mean, I have to agree with exageration.
SHL
Well have to agree to diagree there sir harry. If trainers disagree then what was the purpose of cherry mix in the king george?
We may find out next week if the pace is fast and sir percy stays…
Grass
Maybe this might sway yer to investigate further:
"Speed Ratings
An excellent example of the utility of speed ratings was provided by the 2003 Triumph Hurdle.Well Chief, the heavily fancied Pipe runner, started 7-1 in the 27 runner field. The gelding had won a farcical 2 mile event at Kempton on good ground, two and half weeks previously. However, Jonjo’s Spectroscope had won over 2 miles at Kempton recently, on softer ground and in a quicker time than Well Chief. Yet Spectroscope was available at 33-1 in places, which he duly won by head from Well Chief"
Can’t check against Topspeed ratings to verify the authors claims because they’ve not awarded a timefigure to the WC race mentioned (could mean it were that slow it wasn’t worth one being awarded) but  Well Chief’s best  leading up to the race, 84, 55  and Spectroscopes 75 (race prior) 94 and 105  indicate the above statement is  probably correct
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(Edited by empty wallet at 2:53 am on Sep. 24, 2006)
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Bulwark<br> While I agree with much of what you say, I vary on a few points.<br> Firstly Sir Percy, whom you dismiss on the proximity of Dragon Dancer and the pace of the Derby.<br> DD is a one-paced horse, who almost certainly needs more than 12f, yet ran the race of his life in the Derby simply because it is the stiffest test he has faced so far.<br>His subsequent runs were; the Irish Derby, were he was held up of a slow early pace, (not the ideal ride for a plodder); a 10f race at Maisons L, which simply wasn’t far enough; and a 12f race at Longchamp where he led most of the way, but at a joke pace.<br> The Derby was run at a reasonable pace, (depending on whatever going allowance is allocated, which was the subject of much disagreement, even amongst the regular speed buffs on here) and I disagree that the couple of seconds, which equates to  about 34 yards can possibly make ‘furlongs’ of distance.<br> I hear what your saying about Cherry Mix, but have thought for some time that Electrocutionist’s optimum distance, (All horses have one, even though it may vary with age, training regime etc.) is around 11f, a view supported by his last-gasp win in a very fast run Juddmonte, over an extended 10f on good ground, so, even with your example, it is hardly a matter of ‘furlongs’.<br> Further to Sir Percy’s Derby run, it really is no different to a car with a finite amount of fuel (energy) available, both may get a little further with judicious handling, but any protracted acceleration will use up reserves more quickly. Now, unless your saying that the Derby was a 2 furlong sprint, which it palpably wasn’t, Sir Percy still had fuel to burn at the end of the race, otherwise he wouldn’t have been able to pull back the 6l or so he was down on Dragon Dancer in the closing stages and still be going away from his opponents.<br> Add to that that Epsom is a stiffer test than Longchamp, he will undoubtedly have matured since, (hence the wfa scale, and the reason the classics are run over extending distances) and I cannot see any problem with him staying in the Arc. Proper soft ground, or better horses, may beat him on the day, otherwise I would expect him to uphold the Derby form, whatever the pace.
<br>ps. While it is refreshing to be part of a proper discussion about pace on the board, may I suggest that you tone down the enthusiasm a little, as the natives on here can be quite touchy.:cool: <br>
- Total Posts 17716
EW
<br>Not a very good list, but the following extract from RP results, (and the form commentary) show an exceedingly slow race .
[listRACE WINNER DIST  TIME TIME/F  COMPARISON COMP<br>per F  ALLOW  TS RPR  OFFICIAL<br>GROUND TIME BASED<br>GROUND  <br> <br>1:55  Hand Inn Hand 2m4½f  5m 3.80s 14.82s  +4.80s +0.23s  â€â€Â
Quote: from Bulwark on 1:55 am on Sep. 24, 2006[br]Well have to agree to diagree there sir harry. If trainers disagree then what was the purpose of cherry mix in the king george?
We may find out next week if the pace is fast and sir percy stays…<br>
But Bulwark Im not completely disagreeing with at all. Im just saying that in terms of distance you cant increase a stamina by furlongs. However the effect of running out of a stamina in the final furlong will pretty much lead to a horse being well beaten. A horse staying an extra 100 meters can be the distance between winning well and getting well stuffed and we see that every day.
And just for the record, I have a huge doubt about SP staying and I dont fancy him to beat HR , Shirrocco etc but i have no doubt about him getting to 11 furlongs.
It seems to me that most of us who feel he wont stay are doing so on the basis that he looks too much of a speedy sort. I think this is a reasonable assumption but flawed.
SHL
Quote: from EC on 9:32 am on Sep. 24, 2006[br]Grassy
I don’t think you will find I ever used the word "crucial" regarding the clock and NH racing.;) …in fact I don’t believe I have ever used the word crucial re the flat either.
What I have said..is that if you are going to hand out top of the season ratings to a race..then the horses in that race should have fulfilled the conditions of said race.
if it is a 3 mile race..then I expect it to be a proper test at that distance..not a mild gallop for 2 miles 4f and a rush to the line.
this is a ratings related point I’m making..to make it really clear :cheesy:
if you don’t think measuring speed is important over the jumps..you might look at BOS..he doesn’t own a speed figure that suggests he can actually jump at G1 speed..so it’s not surprising he hasn’t been able to win at G1 speed..just races where he has been allowed to get around in his own time.
Lets not get back to that anyway..basically..you don’t value speed figures..others do..it’s all down to personal preference.
But EC I dont think many people do watch the actual numbers for national hunt racing. Perhaps because one doesnt need a clock to see whats happening. It doesnt take a clock to tell one that a 3 mile slog around Navan is a very different kettle of fish to top of the ground break neck gallop at Cheltenham.
Certainly, in my time I havent seen any punters who analyses sectionals like the way Stav, yourself and others do here the same way for national hunt racing.
I would have though that such an analysis when used for something like cheltenham would be particularly difficult because there isnt another meeting where they go that fast on that type of ground so the info wouldnt be there. Anyhow, time to start a new thread chaps….we dont this one a few times now.
SHL
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