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Quote: from Zorro on 10:29 am on Sep. 22, 2006[br]The aspect of their handicapping that irritates me is their constant undervaluing of Deep Impact’s form this year. Fortunately there are only a few more days of that to put up with.<br>
Zorro, your confidence is infectious and its obviously spread quite rapidly already but you have to some concerns. First of all, what if the ground is soft and secondly his Jockey hasnt been the best navigator around longchamp before. Dont know alot about racing in Japan so I just wonder also if he will be able to adapt to a slow early pace which happens regularly enough here.
SHL
Couldnt give a toss about the derby time. To come from that awful position, after not settling early on (and as FSL says possibly not fully wound up) is what is etched in the memory
Maybe he couldnt have done it off a faster pace, but then again, maybe he could….
What matters is the fact that the horse will strain every sinew to make sure it happens. That, in a tough race like the arc, can be a huge attribute
Rating him below that somewhat overrated and very in and out David junior is bizarre imo. SP has yet to run badly, but DJ…. Thats the problem with ratings being based on one performance.
SHL, most people seem certain the Arc will be run in a super fast time.. So it your horse doesn’t stay 12f it’s knacked… Derby winners have no chance ;)
My one worry is not about the ground, because I think he might even be better with cut. Or about the jockey. Take’s no fool.<br>The worry is about pace or the lack of it, because DI is a notorious puller. That’s why he’s always put to sleep at the back. If he gets among horses, he goes.
Luke, am I going in to my max? I’m already in over my max. If I win it will be big. If I go down it will be in flames.:o <br>Actually what I’ve been doing is putting bits of spare cash on ever since the market opened. So if the unthinkable happens and he loses, I won’t even notice it’s gone. At one point, before he’d arrived, my faith wavered and I had savers on Shirocco, who is a horse I really admire. But I’m over that now.:cool:
Quote: from Zorro on 1:41 pm on Sep. 22, 2006[br]My one worry is not about the ground, because I think he might even be better with cut. Or about the jockey. Take’s no fool.<br>The worry is about pace or the lack of it, because DI is a notorious puller. That’s why he’s always put to sleep at the back. If he gets among horses, he goes.
Luke, am I going in to my max? I’m already in over my max. If I win it will be big. If I go down it will be in flames.:o <br>Actually what I’ve been doing is putting bits of spare cash on ever since the market opened. So if the unthinkable happens and he loses, I won’t even notice it’s gone. At one point, before he’d arrived, my faith wavered and I had savers on Shirocco, who is a horse I really admire. But I’m over that now.:cool:
Bits of spare cash to you is like a years wages to us :o
That’s right Flat Season Lover. I split Bill Gates and Warren Buffett in a three way photo I do.:biggrin:
I would be surprised if more than two of the last ten Arcs were run at a slow pace. Big fields, pacemakers, and the general atmosphere of the race usually result in things happening very quickly indeed.
I do respect deep impact but i dont fear him as its the acid test for him facing proper horses for the first time and every horse in this field has strengths and weaknesses. I saw him today on the bbc and he ceratainly looks like a nice horse, but there is only one horse who has form that ties in with deep impact who has been over here and he was beaten at ascot, Is this deep impact going to be another "he’d have been better with a prep run"? Sunday silence horses are generally at their best on faster conditions and i wouldnt be wanting testing conditions for him as part of a general a rule, especially against horses like hurricane run and shirocco who love it. Nevertheless, just like hearts cry hes a very good horse and i do respect his chance. Good luck zorro.
You are right though zorro, the pace of the race is the is the MOST important factor. Ive been saying this all along. If its fast you can guarantee hurricane run will be involved in the finsh/ probably rail link too. If its a standard gallop shirocco will almost definitely be in the mix (but it’ll be anyone’s race) and if its really slow then sir percy (and possibly pride) will be involved, i think.
Dragon dancer may have finished right up with sir percy but how can he be rated the same as a horse who was going past him, not to mention that all his previous and subsequent form suggests that he is overrated for his performance epsom, if anything (in the absence of injury).
I have not said that this years arc will definitely be a fast clip (only that i would like it to be to make a good race), i think that in the absence of a pace setter for rail link or hurricane run it will almost definitely be slow. But if sir percy wins a slow arc it will not prove much to me that i dont already know. It is a fact that when you slow a race down it will almost always go to the fastest horse, who i agree is sir percy, my point has always been that i dont think sir percy has the stamina for a fast arc (especially if conditions are testing).
Quote: from Aragorn on 12:33 pm on Sep. 22, 2006[br]SHL, most people seem certain the Arc will be run in a super fast time.. So it your horse doesn’t stay 12f it’s knacked… Derby winners have no chance ;) <br>
Derby winners dont win fast run 12 furlong races….now that I didnt know!!!
SHL
Quote: from SirHarryLewis on 1:11 am on Sep. 23, 2006[br]
Quote: from Aragorn on 12:33 pm on Sep. 22, 2006[br]SHL, most people seem certain the Arc will be run in a super fast time.. So it your horse doesn’t stay 12f it’s knacked… Derby winners have no chance ;) <br>
Derby winners dont win fast run 12 furlong races….now that I didnt know!!!
No..actually I have one question. How do we know SP doesnt stay a truly run 12 furlongs? I have not seen reruns of the Derby but was his run visually failing at the finish.?
SHL
Where do people get ths notion that Sir Percy may not stay a strong mile and a half? I find it bizarre. The Epsom Derby for a three year old tackling the trip for the first time is about as tough a mile and a half test as you will get other than on heavy ground. Epsom’s mile and a half is stiffer than a lot give it credit for. Sir Percy got every single millimetre of the trip at Epsom and didn’t look like stopping at any stage.
Ok question the merit of the basic form if you must but his stamina over a mile and a half?? Puzzling.
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"seems to be some confusion over a horse staying compared to one that wins with speed due to a slower early pace
if the fastest pace in a race takes part in the second half of that race only..then you don’t need stamina to win it..you need speed. SP has shown one heck of a lot of speed to win the Derby..not stamina..thats not decrying the performance..but it is the view you take if you are studying pace…and it’s logical".
EC<br> Whose logic,FFS?<br> According to the above criteria, Cav Okay won his 1st race because it was a stamina test, but has since been unable to last more than 4 furlongs?????<br>Stamina means endurance or toughness, which is not just the ability to plod on forever, but to produce and sustain the better effort against similar class horses when the chips are down, which Sir Percy did, in spades, in an average run Derby!<br>
Quote: from EC on 9:51 am on Sep. 23, 2006[br]
The Derby in no way proves he will stay a true run 12f race..it’s a different animal. It suggests that SP has possibly more speed than stamina if put in that situation..then again..he might have both and be very special. Without seeing him since over 12f it’s hard to judge..but the simple % call is that a horse with his speed may not have the stamina to last out a true run 12f race.
Im afriad that I have to completely disagree with your here as Im sure many people would. Does the Derby prove beyond doubt that he stays 12 furlongs at a true gallop??? NO. .. Does it make it more likely now in my mind then it did before it ran, absolutely!! The petrol definitly lasts longer in a slow race…but how much longer.
SHL
A mile and a half is still a mile and a half no matter what stage the horses hit top speed.
Some of you are going on as though the race was run ten seconds below standard, it wasn’t that slowly run.
Sir Percy stays a mile and half absolutely no question.
Stop nitpicking!! :angry:
;)
Quote: from EC on 4:13 pm on Sep. 23, 2006[br] a horse that wins a true run race should always get a little higher form rating than one that wins a 5f dash for the line.imho.<br>
<br>Agree
I totally agree with what EC is trying to say.
It is a FACT that in a standrard time on fast ground a 1m2f horse can win 1m4f races, look at the finish of the king george for example, electrocutionist nearly won it and he was a 1m2f horse (or are people now going to question that), he beat hearts cry who is a very good 1m4f horse, it was only the sheer class of hurricane run that beat him for toe.
There was nothing of anywhere that class at epsom this year…
"But sir percy beat Dylan Thomas and he has went on to win 2 group1s?
Yes, Sir Percy beat Dylan Thomas, but so did Dragon dancer, who (despite not being injured since) has since proved himself to be listed/low group class at best. Not only that but dylan thomas routed absolutely dragon dancer at the curragh, despite the fact that he was fading to him at epsom. So what does that say? Perhaps that Dylan Thomas was under par at epsom? Or is that just impossible to believe.
"Sir percy was powering his way through horses of equal class at epsom".
For anyone who really thinks that – Oh Dear!
It is all well and good blindly supporting a horse because it has the title "Derby winner" (because lets face it, if he’d thrown down the same performance in the king edward or GP Du Paris we wouldnt even be having this conversation).
I can see that you are havng trouble understanding the concept of pace (and probably wonder how it has any relevance in racing), so i’ll explain like this, George Washington is a sprinter/miler yet if they cantered the first mile of the derby then hed win guaranteed because hes the fastest horse, sir percy is a 1m2f horse and so to a lesser exagerated extent this is what he done.
If you still cant grasp that then i wont keep going but for your own good people please dont put your mortage on him handling a fast gallop on soft ground at longchamp because he is a 1m2f horse and it wont happen.
I do realise that if he does win at a fast gallop then i will look quite the fool and please feel free to take the mick but i am condfident that its not going to happen. He can only win a slow arc.
Quote: from Grasshopper on 7:50 pm on Sep. 23, 2006[br]
All I’m wondering is whether the clock is as effective a barometer of class/lack of class over Jumps, as it appears to be over the Flat.
Although some, in fact probablly many would disagree, the clock is as relevant in NH racing as it is on the flat<br>
(Edited by empty wallet at 7:57 pm on Sep. 23, 2006)
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