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…which is the only way I can interpet the following ratings.
Sir Percy joint 14th? Three pounds less than Dylan Thomas?
And 2lb less than…errrr…David Junior?
Tell you what? Why don’t we just open the Derby to older horses huh! Better still, why don’t we turn the Derby and the Leger into handicaps. Ace huh!
Ladbrokes could promote the Slowcoach Double alongside their clever, but suicidal, Spring and Autumn versions.
I was right on the line at Epsom when Sir Percy bounded past fresh as paint.
I’m sorry for going on, but everyday the lack of respect this horse recieves infuriates me and turns me into a bitter and twisted old woman.
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And as for Sixties Icon being shorter in the betting for the Arc. I’ll be interested to see what happens when and if Sir Percy is declared. If it’s still the case, I’m doing a Richard Baerlein, (c Shergar 1981 – the bit about betting like men).
Any thoughts on the ratings?
Cheers
Bitter and twisted Max.;) <br>
They’ve obviously taken the view, somewhat understandably, that DT has improved a few pounds since the Derby. What’s wrong with that. I agree SP, on Epsom evidence, looked likely to beat him again should they ever meet again but perhaps only if he’s improved that few pounds which is not a gimme, him having been trained pretty hard for the Guineas and Derby and having had his share of problems.
Sir Percy looked unlikely to make the Derby though so he couldn’t have been properly wound up and so improvement is likely surely. Let the horse do the talking if and when he is supplemented for The Arc.
"Sir Percy looked unlikely to make the Derby though so he couldn’t have been properly wound up and so improvement is likely surely."
Have to disagree FSL I’m afraid. Your logic that because he looked unlikely to make the Derby meant he couldn’t be properly wound up is flawed. ‘A’ doesn’t necessarily follow ‘B’ in this case.<br> <br>In addition to the flaw in the theoretical logic, there is a practical obstruction to your argument. Sir Percy looked as fit as a flea on Derby Day, and I would have expected nothing less from his trainer. Further improvement, while possible, was not necessarily likely, judging the horse on his two runs at three up to that point. He was no more likely, say, than Dylan Thomas to improve, maybe less so given their relative career histories. He was almost certainly less likely to improve, at that point, than the inexperienced and unfortunate Hala Bek.
And, it wouldn’t be much fun if we just sat back and let the horses do the talking would it. Just simply let them race and prove who was best and who had trained on and who was fit? Why, what on earth would the likes of you and I spend all our time thinking about if we did that!
Sir Percy joint 14th? Three pounds less than Dylan Thomas?
And 2lb less than…errrr…David Junior?
Seems about right. <br>
Quote: from cormack15 on 11:16 pm on Sep. 20, 2006[br]"Sir Percy looked unlikely to make the Derby though so he couldn’t have been properly wound up and so improvement is likely surely."
Have to disagree FSL I’m afraid. Your logic that because he looked unlikely to make the Derby meant he couldn’t be properly wound up is flawed. ‘A’ doesn’t necessarily follow ‘B’ in this case.<br> <br>In addition to the flaw in the theoretical logic, there is a practical obstruction to your argument. Sir Percy looked as fit as a flea on Derby Day, and I would have expected nothing less from his trainer. Further improvement, while possible, was not necessarily likely, judging the horse on his two runs at three up to that point. He was no more likely, say, than Dylan Thomas to improve, maybe less so given their relative career histories. He was almost certainly less likely to improve, at that point, than the inexperienced and unfortunate Hala Bek.
And, it wouldn’t be much fun if we just sat back and let the horses do the talking would it. Just simply let them race and prove who was best and who had trained on and who was fit? Why, what on earth would the likes of you and I spend all our time thinking about if we did that!<br>
Sorry just seen this now Cormack – you knew you’d get a response eventually :).
Tregoning said the colt had returned from Newmarket stiff and sore. His participation was described as 50/50 and he drifted out to 16/1 on the betting exchanges. His participation was only certain about a week before The Derby. I don’t see how the colt could be fully wound up for The Derby with only a couple of weeks training. Sir Percy obviously got some training but not as much the stable would have liked:
"This is a huge day for my team. It has not been straightforward getting him here. We work as a team and I’d particularly like to thank my principal owner Sheikh Hamdan who has allowed me to train him on his gallops. He has taken a close interest in his progress. I even struggled to get him to the Guineas. When he pulled a shoe off in January he gave his joint a wrench at the same time. I had felt pressure before but with Nashwan it was because I had so much money on him! Martin (Dwyer) gave him a terrific ride. He has always filled me with confidence and he is extremely confident and competent. He served his time with Ian Balding and he called me last week and told me how disappointed he’d been when Mill Reef was beaten in the Guineas but then won the Derby and hoped I would do the same. – Marcus Tregoning, trainer; It was a rough race and I had to go where there was room. Frankie [Dettori] was trying to ride my horse as well as his own. I wasn’t going to win coming round so I had to go to the inside. Hewas really tough and determined. There is only one man to thank for this – Marcus Tregoning. Sir Percy came back with an injury and Marcus and the team have done a great job to get him there in good form – I just sat on him. – Martin Dwyer, jockey; It’s a magnificent training performance by Marcus and really unbelievable for us. We are so lucky. – Victoria Pakenham, owner "
The words used are "good form" they were hardly oozing with confidence then about his readiness beforehand? The horse looked fit in the paddock I agree and his Guineas run won’t have done any harm on that score. but his actual race readiness is open to debate.
The colt has only had 6 career starts and has improved for every start. Its possible the Derby form is underrated (debate inconclusive) and I don’t think its unreasonable to expect further improvement.
It wouldn’t be much fun to let the horses sit back and do ALL the talking I agree but Sir Percy has been dismissed before nearly all of its runs on here and so 5/6 isn’t a bad return is it? If it wins the Arc will people question the Arc form and say the colt was lucky? At what point do people accept the colt is good?
The Derby form is good. Sir Percy, Hala Bek and Visindar haven’t even run since and they were three of the first five home. There are plenty of winners and placed horses of good races that have come out of the Derby despite ARGUABLY the three best horses not running since.
I think because the trend over the last decade or so has been the older horses better than the three year olds (generally) people now create a sort of other level aura surrounding older horses.
Fair enough Sir Percy has to prove he’s as good as the older horses before he can be accepted as such but he hasn’t failed to do that he hasn’t yet been given the opportunity.
(Edited by The Market Man at 12:32 am on Sep. 22, 2006)<br>
(Edited by The Market Man at 12:33 am on Sep. 22, 2006)
Excellent post FSL. ;)
…Sir Percy has been dismissed before nearly all of its runs on here and so 5/6 isn’t a bad return is it? If it wins the Arc will people question the Arc form and say the colt was lucky? At what point do people accept the colt is good?
He’s better than just good, FSL. Sir Percy’s the real deal. I hope Tregoning makes the right choice on Wednesday.
I can’t quite work out how the stable’s horses are running. What do you think? They’ve had some good winners and yet some disappointing displays. I’m looking forward to seeing Ajhar and Makderah run this weekend. If they run well, I’ll be a lot more bullish about wading into the stable star on Wednesday.
<br>Fair enough Sir Percy has to prove he’s as good as the older horses before he can be accepted as such but he hasn’t failed to do that he hasn’t yet been given the opportunity.
Agreed, TMM.;)
If sir percy wins an arc 4 secs fast i’ll say hes as good as hurricane run but i dont think sir percy will ever be a 1m4f horse. He won the derby, yes, but a standard time on fast ground, im sure that at the gallop carved out by heliostatic he wouldnt have had a chance against the dylan thomas/fallon masterclass at the curragh. His current rating looks pretty honest, remember that he has not yet been to 1m2f (where i think he could be a 130 horse) and David Jrs rating is from his impressive dubai run, not the other two rusty looking disappointments.
I thought last year that Sir percy, Horatio Nelson and Heatseeker looked like potentially great 1m2f horses (with the two latter they have not had the chance), dylan thomas also came on from his 2yo form greatly and emerged as a very serious 1m2f horse, however the lack of strength in this years 1m4f crop and the higher profile of many of the 1m4f races has seen most of the good 1m2f horses stepping up in distance against horses of much lower class. Sir Percy stands out to me as being one of these and so for me to bet on sir percy to win a slow arc is like betting on this years arc to be a poor one, but the arc is one of my favorite races and that is something i just cant do. Everything about this season so far suggests that a poor gallop is almost certain in the arc but im hopeful that the arc may save whats by and large been a poor season. The two best travellers (hurricane and rail link) are not front runners and i cant see anything else in the field favouring a good gallop, thus i cant see anything in the field wanting to set the pace, and so hopefully a pacesetter is fielded tro save the race.
If the arc was 1m2f i would bank on sir percy everytime, i think he’d hump hurricane run and dylan thomas, who i dont think could match his tactical speed.
However, i always look to the arc as a race with a harsh gallop where the true 1m4f horses stamp their authority over the pretenders who have picked up a few weak 1m4f races through the year. i am hoping (like every year) that this years arc will be a good one.
I have drifted off the subject though, i think that the ratings look pretty realistic, sir percy hasnt really acheived a great deal in terms of what the form is worth, you must realise that despite the name "derby" and the prize money involved it is a race at an awkward time on an awkward track with specific terms, other horses (like dylan thomas, david jr + even the much hyped ouija board) have thrown in better performances in less prestigious group1s throught the year.
You make some good points, Bulwark. Whether or not SP proves itself to be best over 1m 2f, we’ll know soon.
you must realise that despite the name "derby" and the prize money involved it is a race at an awkward time on an awkward track with specific terms
I’ve mentioned this before and maybe I’m an arch-traditionalist, but in olden times, a racehorse was tested for other attributes, not just speed. For example, stamina, flexibility, versatility and balance. Attitude, too, which SP has in spades.
The founders of the sport were no fools.
The King’s course, Newmarket, was a much fairer test, and an obvious alternative venue, but it wasn’t seen as a broad enough test of a racehorse’s capabilities.
Races at Epsom are rough and tumble, with it’s cambers and deviations. You get street fighters as well as aristocrats winning the Derby; horses that can handle the rough with the smooth. I’d add a pound or two for that alone.
Take a much maligned horse like Teenoso who was considered at the time to be a one paced mudlark who galloped the opposition into submission in his Derby. ÂÂÂ
He was a much better horse than that and was shown over time to have the full range of attributes which make a top quality racehorse.
The rating of David Junior seems to be based on three races. Do we not subtract a pound or two for his dismal performance at Royal Ascot? (Or  have last year’s shocking performance at Haydock at the back of our minds?).  The horse cannot handle a slow pace or slowish ground conditions. SP has proved so far that he can do both of those things.  He’s already shown greater versatility. On what are these ratings based?
(Additionally, Ouija Board was ridden incompetently at Sandown exaggerating the Meehan horse’s superiority over the mare. No, I can’t have the 2lb difference, on balance).
Sir Percy within 5lbs of Hurricane Run? I don’t think so.
We’ll see in a fortnight, Steve.;)
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The world rankings do not go on an average, they go on what the best performance has been by a horse on a track this year. Hurricane Run for example was rated 130ish last year for his great arc win but has only been able to muster a 126 rating this year, which means his rating at present is 126. He is at his best at 1m4f on soft ground at a fast pace which (like bago last year) he has not had so far this season. Which for me makes his king george win from behind on fast ground at a slow pace far more impressive.
David Jr ran to his rating early in the season in dubai but looked terrible on both starts this summer. Whatever he has done he has still acheived that rating however.
Sir Percy ran well enough behind George Washington at newmarket but not more than his rating suggests and if you go by the form that the rest of the field was in at the time of the derby (dylan thomas was in good form but his subsequent best form has involved different racing tactics coming from off a harder pace seems to be his forte), its hard to give him much more than his rating suggests for that partciular race. If sir percy wins wins the champion stakes with a rating of 130 then that will be his rating for the season.
Ive not yet seen the rating for dylan thomas and ouija board’s irish champion performances but i think that the racing post haveover assessed them, they have used the proximity of alexander goldrun as a reference point but looking at dylan thomas that day i didnt think he had the same action as on his irish derby win, ground perhaps, but he looked better in the irish derby not just by the winning margin.
Also i didnt think shirocco deserved a racing post 129 rating for beating munsef 3lengths in the jockey club stakes (a race which notoriously attracts underprepped horses on the way to the coronation cup etc) Im glad that the world rankings put hurricane run 1lb ahead of him.
But it goes to show that ratings arent always correct they are reallly just a guide through human perception which is so often flawed.
they go on what the best performance has been by a horse on a track this year
In which case, why is Dragon Dancer rated only 119?
He should have the same ratng as Sir Percy … which says it all for me …
Over with this strangely "adjusted" rating, thanks to the Derby form, DD is just 1lb behind Ouija Board and as good as Alexander Goldrun?
And that’s a horse that’s still a maiden after 8 races?
Again, I don’t think so.
As the RP race report says:
"It would be impossible to rate the form highly by Derby standards for a host of reasons – for example, it was a slow time considering the quick ground, the second was a maiden, and there were horses all the way down the finishing order who were too close for comfort"
Or, as I say, "the Derby form is worthless".
Steve
sir percy hasnt really acheived a great deal in terms of what the form is worth
Can’t agree with you here bulwark, if a horse wins the dewhurst, runs second in the guineas and wins the derby (and wins its 3 other races) what do they need to do to achieve something? I tend to agree that the derby may not be a true reflection, but people say DT would win in a true run 1m 4f. But he had the jump on the field that day along with DD which is why they finished where they did. If DT has the speed to win over 10f beating ouija board that makes SP’s run all the more remarkable in my opinion as he had so much ground to make up.. Jury’s still out on whether he’ll stay a strongly run 12f. If he does though the 16/1 or whatever he is will look outrageous..
The aspect of their handicapping that irritates me is their constant undervaluing of Deep Impact’s form this year. Fortunately there are only a few more days of that to put up with.
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