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My world hudle bets stand at
Thistle crack 25/1
Martello tower 28.0
Windsor park 10/1
alpha des obeaux 68.0
ARTIC fire 88.0
Clondaw court 25/1Anyone who backed arctic fire at 14/1 nrnb. Are going to be pretty happy with themselves right now
That’s what nrnb is for.
I’m glad ruby diddnt give him a particularly hard race in terms of him still having a top 3 chance in the champion.I can’t remember a more fascinating prospective World Hurdle – an event that can be something of a bore. Thistlecrack looks a champ, but Camping Ground has come from nowhere and seems a real talent. Saphir Du Rheu could bounce back after a breathing op. Arctic Fire is still a possible runner, with Mullins also having Annie Power and Vroum Vroum Mag in the betting.
Greatrex remains bullish about the current champ, though today’s seemed a disappointing run to me, with Cole Harden looking to come under pressure very suddenly travelling down the hill, and I wonder if they’ll look again at his breathing. Still, the trainer knows what’s needed for March.
Kilcooley, despite missing the Long Walk and the Relkeel is reportedly very well and set for a reappearance in the Cleeve, and he is still the value to my mind (the post-Relkeel 20s about Camping Ground having quickly gone).
I’m very much looking forward to this race. The ground is going to play a big part in the outcome.
An interesting nugget from Lydia Hislop, especially for you strict form/poundage students: the only time Camping Ground met Thistlecrack he gave the World Hurdle fav 15lbs and a comfortable beating.
Going by that same nugget, Some Buckle should be taking them both on in the World Hurdle.
It was almost a year ago over a mile less and Thistlecrack is a different horse.
Top Notch is a doubtful stayer, Cole Harden wasn’t 100% and prefers better ground. The form of the Relkeel is dodgy
“An interesting nugget from Lydia Hislop, especially for you strict form/poundage students: the only time Camping Ground met Thistlecrack he gave the World Hurdle fav 15lbs and a comfortable beating”
And black bear island finished infront of sea the stars over 7furlongs.
Thistlecrack is a completely different animal since he was stepped up in trip, hes improved with each run since,
Leighton aspell will need a pair of binoculars Imo to get a view of Thistlecrack at the top of the hill.Bold statements, gentlemen, given the horse has had just 2 British outings: 2l 3rd in the Imperial Cup under 11.12 and sauntering home in the Relkeel. Thistlecrack might well be a different horse, but the formbook suggests not that much different. He got 4lbs from Cole Harden at Newbury and beat him six and a half lengths. CG got 8lbs and beat him 20 lengths, after CH had had the benefit of a race and was fancied by his trainer (whatever he says after the race, he was bullish beforehand whereas he had not been at Newbury).
Citing the ground at Cheltenham as an excuse for the ‘shock’ seems to disregard CG’s fine Sandown run on Good to Soft.
I’m hoping Kilcooley outdoes them all, but, as Ar Mad showed at Sandown, when it walks like a duck and quacks, it can be costly to assume it is not a duck.
Think Camping Ground could turn in to a viable rival to Thistlecrack, but he’ll need to improve quite a bit and prove he stays. Form lines between Thistlecrack and Camping Ground are extremely dubious. Thistlecrack has improved in leaps and bounds at staying trips since Sandown, Cole Harden needs further than 2m4f last time. Not that I believe Cole Harden was at his best against Cole Harden either. World Hurdle and Aintree came on better ground and has had an op since.
Why hasn’t Kilcooley run since Wetherby Joe?
Value Is EverythingCiting the ground at Cheltenham as an excuse for the ‘shock’ seems to disregard CG’s fine Sandown run on Good to Soft.
Who has done that ?
One problem for Kilcooley is that Charlie Longsdon’s record at Cheltenham is about as good as mine.
( he’s a fine trainer but 1 from 86 at Cheltenham is horrific )
Citing the ground at Cheltenham as an excuse for the ‘shock’ seems to disregard CG’s fine Sandown run on Good to Soft.
Who has done that ?
I perhaps wrongly took it to be an inference by you that it had a bearing on the form of the Relkeel being ‘dodgy’. Cole Harden might well prefer better ground, but he’s won twice on heavy and was supported in the market for the Relkeel.
I can understand doubts being cast on form when an outsider pops up, especially on bad ground, and runs much better than he’s previously shown he could to win by a couple of lengths. But this horse is about as unexposed as you can get, had a highly creditable performance in the bag already and absolutely hosed up.
Ginger, I suspect Kilcooley has had at least one setback. After Wetherby, Longsdon said he’d run in the Long Walk Hurdle, but a few days beforehand said on his blog that he ‘hadn’t quite been able to get him ready in time’ and that he’d run in the Relkeel. When the horse did not appear in the decs for that I tweeted Longsdon and asked him how the horse was. To his credit he responded quickly: ‘Kilcooley is very well and will run in The Cleeve and, all being well, straight to the Festival’.
His missed races and that ‘all being well’ worry me somewhat, but at the price (28 on Betfair), I’m happy to have a couple of quid more on. I think he’s the forgotten horse of the race (has the same OR as Cole Harden, 4lbs behind Thistlecrack), though he has ground questions to answer, and also will obviously not get an uncontested lead. On paper, Camping Ground now has more solid credentials, though that post-Relkeel 20s has collapsed to 9s.
Why do you think the formlines between Thistlecrack and Camping Ground ‘extremely dubious’? And why is Thistlecrack (8) perceived to have improved, particularly for the step up in trip, yet, CG (6) not getting similar credit? And why do you believe he needs to prove he’ll stay a further 3 and a half furlongs on what is likely to be much better ground? Are you unwilling to make the stamina assumption on ‘circumstantial evidence’?
CG is not getting similar credit because he hasn’t won so convincingly at 3 miles – the distance they run in the World Hurdle.
He’s won a 2m4f race on heavy ground against a doubtful stayer, another who has only won over 2 miles, a horse who appreciates better ground, a couple of handicappers and a chaser who seems to be targeted at the National ( this is the only explanation i have for Bobs Worth’s season so far )Thistlecrack has won two of the top staying races in GB and Ireland whilst beating proven stayers convincingly.
CG is not bred for further and there’s little in the pedigree to suggest he can win a World Hurdle.
Thistlecrack is bred to the 9s.
Well, I’ve never been into the breeding side of betting, but he looked to me like he wouldn’t have slowed down much with another 770 yards to run, in what was pretty deep ground. To assume the Relkeel suited only him that day is, I think, a risky conclusion. I’m not knocking Thistlecrack who looks a very good horse, but this fella has given him weight and a beating – yes, T’crack improved after that, but so has CG. Yes, T’crack stays, but I believe CG will stay just as well, and at the prices, I prefer Camping Ground.
Well, I’ve never been into the breeding side of betting, but he looked to me like he wouldn’t have slowed down much with another 770 yards to run, in what was pretty deep ground. To assume the Relkeel suited only him that day is, I think, a risky conclusion. I’m not knocking Thistlecrack who looks a very good horse, but this fella has given him weight and a beating – yes, T’crack improved after that, but so has CG. Yes, T’crack stays, but I believe CG will stay just as well, and at the prices, I prefer Camping Ground.
I say Camping Ground has to “prove” he stays Joe, ie think he’s got a fair chance of doing so, but hasn’t actually done it yet. The 2m4f last time was on heavy ground, so got no doubt he’ll stay 2m6f on ordinary ground. Remains to be seen about 3m. Wasn’t as though pushed along half-way to stay on, fact is he travelled well/best throughout. There is also a doubt about the form. With Cole Harden, Bobs Worth, Whisper, Vigilio and Top Notch way below form; only able to judge form by one horse, the handicapper Lil Rockerfella who gave the winner 4 lbs. That said, was an easy 11 length win. So could be a top class individual or just below top class. Should find out more in the Cleeve.
btw, did you get the 20/1? I only ask because I looked immediately after the race on oddschecker, seemed to me the 20’s was from a bookie yet to react to the race. ie Yet to push Cole Harden, Whisper and Top Notch out and yet to bring Camping Ground in.
Value Is Everything
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