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9/4 ? you got to love those bookies. I agree it would be crazy to take that price at this stage or back anything else. Right now only Nicky Henderson horses seems to pose any real threat. I have little or no doubt Duc De Regniere is the better of the two and Punchestowns is a false price but it woud take a brave man to back the former at this stage despite his excellent win the other day……….really hard to oppose the world Hurdle form which is rock solid and take a chance with unknown quantities who might not even make the race.
9/4 may be short but the post-race 3/1 with Ladbrokes was too hard for me to resist.
I’m living in hope having backed Tazbar months ago and thought I was doing well as his odds more than halfed until he ran like a pig at Aintree…Ladbrokes are long on everything Bar Blazing Bailys so it’s no secret what they fancy….. 3/1 is very tempting as unless something comes out of the woodwork hell be much shorter on the day……..My only problem is that if I back it he probably wont run.
I have little or no doubt Duc De Regniere is the better of the two and Punchestowns is a false price
I take the opposite view entirely. Punchestowns’ win the other week was one of the most impressive things I’ve seen in ages whereas Saturday’s slowly-run race rather fell into Duc De Regniere’s lap with Inglis Drever pulling up and Pettifour jumping poorly. Duc De Regniere is over twice the price of Punchestowns on Betfair for the World Hurdle and I think that’s about right.
Mind you, Andrew Barr in today’s Weekender raises the possibility of Punchestowns running in the Champion rather than World Hurdle in the event of soft ground in March and you couldn’t rule that out completely although Henderson has more obvious Champion Hurdle candidates in Binocular and Punjabi.
I backed Kasbah last year but he wouldn’t want it too soft, I think.
Not an ante post play for me, espeically not at less than 3/1.Mind you, Andrew Barr in today’s Weekender raises the possibility of Punchestowns running in the Champion rather than World Hurdle in the event of soft ground in March and you couldn’t rule that out completely although Henderson has more obvious Champion Hurdle candidates in Binocular and Punjabi.
The heavy market support last week for punchestowns in the world hurlde market would suggest that the world hurdle is firmly on his agenda.
I have little or no doubt Duc De Regniere is the better of the two and Punchestowns is a false price
I take the opposite view entirely. Punchestowns’ win the other week was one of the most impressive things I’ve seen in ages whereas Saturday’s slowly-run race rather fell into Duc De Regniere’s lap with Inglis Drever pulling up and Pettifour jumping poorly. Duc De Regniere is over twice the price of Punchestowns on Betfair for the World Hurdle and I think that’s about right.
Mind you, Andrew Barr in today’s Weekender raises the possibility of Punchestowns running in the Champion rather than World Hurdle in the event of soft ground in March and you couldn’t rule that out completely although Henderson has more obvious Champion Hurdle candidates in
Binocular and Punjabi.Ever so slightly more obvious
Don’t you think that Punchestown’s limitations may have been exposed when he met Elusive Dream at Cheltenham? I don’t know if there werea ny excuses that day but I wouldhave expected a better performance from a would be world hurdle hopeful. Perhaps it is just the stage of their indivudal careers they are at but of the two it is Duc De Regniere who Nicky has been asking more of.I’m still hopeful Tazbar will prove to be up to World Hurdle standard and although the Reveleys aren’t big fansof the Festival the World Hurdle must be on the agenda with Inglis retiring
Don’t you think that Punchestown’s limitations may have been exposed when he met Elusive Dream at Cheltenham?
No, I don’t. I’m prepared to forgive him that run on fastish ground in the second half of April. I take the view he left that running well behind with his recent performance. We’ll see.
I can’t have Duc de Regniere at all, for what it’s worth. The race on Saturday fell apart for him somewhat having been run at a complete nothing pace. The third and fourth (Pettifour/Blazing Bailey) weren’t suited by said pace, the latter being a lazy bugger without the blinkers anyway.
I have little or no doubt Duc De Regniere is the better of the two and Punchestowns is a false price
I take the opposite view entirely. Punchestowns’ win the other week was one of the most impressive things I’ve seen in ages whereas Saturday’s slowly-run race rather fell into Duc De Regniere’s lap with Inglis Drever pulling up and Pettifour jumping poorly. Duc De Regniere is over twice the price of Punchestowns on Betfair for the World Hurdle and I think that’s about right.
I’m not sure if I’d have them quite as far apart as they are in the win market on Betfair the last I checked, but like Gus I have been more taken by Punchestowns’ effort of the two this season.
Granted, Punchestowns won a handicap rather than a level-weights Graded contest, but did so pretty convincingly off top weight in a true-run contest on worsening ground against a decent enough field (last Friday’s decent Pertemps Qualifier winner Ballydub trailing him by 3.5l).
Like Gus, Nicky Henderson has taken a forgiving view of the April performance behind Elusive Dream, insisting in One Jump Ahead that the horse was still a bit too immature to withstand that raise in class and competition. A better, wiser horse was promised, and that’s what we got in spades at HQ last month, I reckon.
Duc De Regniere’s win at the weekend wasn’t especially indicative of his propensity to stay a truly-run 3m – which isn’t to say he couldn’t, merely that we still await more compelling racecourse evidence that he could.
Jeremy
(graysonscolumn)Adoptive father of two. The patron saint of lower-grade fare. A gently critical friend of point-to-pointing. Kindness is a political act.
For me around 8/1 looks value for Blazing Bailey with blinkers in a truly run race will be a different proposition than at Newbury at the weekend.
Punchestowns and Duc De Regniere have to prove their stamina.
Kasbah Bliss is the one to beat on form but is he consistent enough to make 3/1 appealing?
Pettifour could also improve given a greater test.
Mark
The Ginger PreacherValue Is EverythingHoping Atamane can serve it up to them in the Long Walk Hurdle – can’t see the 25’s about him lasting too long with a good run in that sure to see him shorten. Was quite impressed with the way he stayed on at Auteuil the other week behind Monoalco and continental Europe has a habit of showing us up in the staying hurdling division (think Kasbah Bliss, Millennium Royal, Baracouda – all three have won/run very well in valuable staying hurdles in recent times).
Hi guys new to the forum.But thought i would tell you my antepost opinions for chelt ive done really well the last 5 meetings and shown a healthy profit for the last 5 meetings
The world hurdle has bin a very good race for me in the past and inglis drever won me lots on so he owes me nothing although if he had won the supreme novices wen he was 2nd cost me a 5 timer in my antepost selections oh well…..Anyway to the race itself i really fancy pettifour to do sum serious damage this year out off all the world hurle winners ive backed they have all had 1 thing in common and thats guts iris gift wen he won it had got a bucket load on at 6/1 and inglis drever wen he won it 1st two times although didnt have a shilling on him last year thought he was two short and couldnt resist getting sum off the 30/1 on hardy eustice thnking if he stays he wins has the class guts unfortunatly for me he didnt stay!.
So to my antepost selection for this race already if pettifour wins the wh will pay for my festival and trip there.Anyway im waffling on why im backing this horse is i saw it win at weatherby and i was so impressed with what it found to beat the nicholls horse who was on the steel 2 out and also think this years wh is gonna be a poor one and believe you wont need a lot off class i was pritty disspointed wen he got turned over last week but the pace off the race is to blame and wen they go flat out for 3miles at cheltenham and you have to show the hear off a lion to get up that hill will be a lot different result to last sat and i really beleieve this horse has got a seriuos chance come march
For me around 8/1 looks value for Blazing Bailey with blinkers in a truly run race will be a different proposition than at Newbury at the weekend.
True enough, but it’s his propensity to try to take a couple of hurdles home with him on the way round that continues to hurt him at the very highest level, and remains enough for me to want to oppose him.
Kasbah Bliss is the one to beat on form but is he consistent enough to make 3/1 appealing?
That’s skinny enough to me at this remove.
I’d not take double that if it turned out dry on World Hurdle day, given that he still hasn’t won a race in his life on going officially good or faster, and that there’s nothing in his jumps portfolio that comes even close to his fourth in Graded company on the level at Longchamp last time.
They don’t water Cheltenham in between racedays at the Festival, as far as I’m aware, so if it’s no worse than good to soft on the Tuesday and the forecast is dry, he’s not going to have his optimum underfoot conditions by any means come the Thursday.
gc
Adoptive father of two. The patron saint of lower-grade fare. A gently critical friend of point-to-pointing. Kindness is a political act.
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Given his flat form, and the fact that he’s obviously improved over the last twelve months, I wouldn’t even remotely consider the possibility that good ground will go against Kasbah Bliss. He travels strongly, stays well, has plenty of class and doesn’t exactly look short of speed either. Throw in the fact that he’s still only six, going on seven, and you begin to wonder what there is to think about.
Without Inglis Drever in the race, there’s nothing good enough to touch him.
Throw in the fact that he’s still only six, going on seven, and you begin to wonder what there is to think about.
How about the fact that he has only won seven of twenty-one hurdle starts?
He might only be rising 7yo, but he is hardly a young, inexperienced horse with stacks of improvement to come.
I repeat – at current odds, he is the worst value in the World Hurdle market……….imo.
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