Working out the track bias.

[TheBluesBrother]

I was reading Andrew Beyers book Picking Winners and on page 74 he shows how he works out the track bias by noting the number of runners in a race and working out a percentage.
I took all the results at Southwell over 5 furlongs during 2009 to see if there was any track bias.
From the results below it shows that over 5 furlongs at Southwell there is no track bias.
I like this method as it gives you a true picture

Example: Draw 1 – BUBBLY BELLINI 2-1 (Odds) 1(Draw) 4 (No of runners)

SOUTHWELL 5F
Draw 1 – BUBBLY BELLINI 2-1 1 4
Draw 1 – LUSCIVIOUS 7-4 1 6
Draw 1 – CAPTAIN CAREY 10-1 1 7
Draw 1 – HALAAK 13-8 1 8
Draw 1 – THREE GOOD FRIENDS 13-2 1 8
Draw 1 – PAWAN 6-1 1 9
Draw 1 – BOLD ROSE 9-4 1 9
Draw 1 – SPIC ‘N SPAN 7-2 1 10
Draw 1 – SINGEUR 5-4 1 11
Draw 1 – BEST ONE 11-4 1 11
Draw 1 – THOUGHTSOFSTARDOM 3-1 1 12
Draw 1 – WATCH CHAIN 4-1 1 13
12 108 11%
Draw 2 – GRIMES FAITH 9-4 2 4
Draw 2 – GRIMES FAITH 5-6 2 6
Draw 2 – THE TATLING 7-1 2 6
Draw 2 – COLORUS 9-4 2 8
Draw 2 – ROWE PARK 5-2 2 8
Draw 2 – SIMPLE RHYTHM 4-1 2 10
Draw 2 – LESLEY’S CHOICE 2-1 2 10
Draw 2 – LUCKY MELLOR 14-1 2 11
Draw 2 – INVINCIBLE LAD 7-2 2 12
9 75 12%
Draw 3 – IMPRIMIS TAGULA 2-1 3 6
Draw 3 – GRIMES FAITH 4-5 3 7
Draw 3 – BACK IN THE RED 4-1 3 8
Draw 3 – SMOKEY RYDER 4-1 3 8
Draw 3 – GRIMES FAITH 3-1 3 9
Draw 3 – CALMDOWNMATE 4-1 3 10
Draw 3 – BACK IN THE RED 7-2 3 10
Draw 3 – ANGIE’S NAP 10-1 3 11
Draw 3 – CLEAR ICE 7-2 3 11
Draw 3 – TAURUS TWINS 8-1 3 12
Draw 3 – HESLINGTON 9-2 3 12
Draw 3 – MAHIKI 9-2 3 13
12 117 10%
Draw 4 – MAY MARTIN 12-1 4 8
Draw 4 – CHEVETON 7-1 4 9
Draw 4 – TOTAL IMPACT 2-1 4 9
Draw 4 – MR ROONEY 8-1 4 10
Draw 4 – THE GEESTER 4-1 4 11
Draw 4 – POCKET’S PICK 7-2 4 11
Draw 4 – ARGENTINE 7-1 4 12
Draw 4 – R WOODY 100-1 4 8
8 78 10%
Draw 5 – ANGIE’S NAP 11-10 5 6
Draw 5 – ITALIAN TOM 2-1 5 6
Draw 5 – REBEL DUKE 11-8 5 7
Draw 5 – WHISKEY CREEK 3-1 5 9
Draw 5 – GUTO 14-1 5 9
Draw 5 – LESLEY’S CHOICE 5-1 5 12
Draw 5 – GUTO 13-2 5 13
7 62 11%
Draw 6 – LA CAPRIOSA 9-2 6 6
Draw 6 – FIGARO FLYER 6-1 6 8
Draw 6 – SPIC ‘N SPAN 8-1 6 10
Draw 6 – COLORUS 5-1 6 12
Draw 6 – LOOSE CABOOSE 8-1 6 13
Draw 6 – HANDSINTHEMIST 6-1 6 9
6 58 10%
Draw 7 – ARGANIL 10-3 7 6
Draw 7 – MAHIKI 3-1 7 7
Draw 7 – POINT TO PROVE 7-1 7 7
Draw 7 – FITZ FLYER 8-1 7 8
4 28 14%
Draw 8 – LUCKY MELLOR 6-4 8 6
Draw 8 – WHISKEY CREEK 11-2 8 8
Draw 8 – CALMDOWNMATE 5-1 8 9
3 23 13%
Draw 9 – STAR PROMISE 20-1 9 10
Draw 9 – MR FUNSHINE 14-1 9 13
Draw 9 – FIRST SWALLOW 17-2 9 14
3 37 8%
Draw 10 – UNDER REVIEW 8-13 10 9
Draw 10 – BILLIE JEAN 8-1 10 10
Draw 10 – KOO AND THE GANG 9-4 10 14
Draw 10 – BEL CANTOR 9-2 10 14
4 47 9%
Draw 11 – HANDSINTHEMIST 4-1 11 10
1 10 10%
Draw 12 – EVNA 33-1 12 12
Draw 12 – NICKEL SILVER 9-1 12 14
2 26 8%

[robert99]

You have to be careful here as track biases can come and go in a few weeks/days due to track maintenance and weather changes. It is irrelevant to be drawn in stall one then race down the middle of the course, for example. It is where and how they run that counts. If you take things over a season, then the "blind" average tends towards a misleading zero bias.

[Miss Woodford]

Remember that Beyer was working with American tracks, so he was working with variables like
-post position (Churchill has a well-known rail bias)
-banking the turns (Keeneland was notorious for this before they installed AW)
-sealing the track after rain (this often makes it faster than a dry surface
-the composition of the dirt (Belmont is the "Big Sandy", Saratoga has more clay)
-depth (Laurel Park is deep, Santa Anita was rock hard before they got ProRide)
-track size (half-mile bullrings vs. a 12f track like Belmont)
etc. Note that Beyer’s speed figures are nowhere near as accurate for synthetic tracks. It’s very hard to use his methods at a track like Southwell. Without so many other AW tracks to compare it to, you can’t really establish a bias.

[TheBluesBrother]

I am currently working on the bias of all tracks (The Draw) not speed figures.
When I get to the turf tracks I will devide the draw bias into two groups i.e. hard/gd firm/firm/good and Gd soft/soft/heavy.
I have on several occasions heard commentators state that there is a draw bias over 5 furlongs at Southwell and the above example proves that theory wrong.
Where needed I am going back to 2004 to get a big enough database to cover distance around 2 miles.
This is something to past the time while the bad weather is with us.

[Anonymous]

I have on several occasions heard commentators state that there is a draw bias over 5 furlongs at Southwell and the above example proves that theory wrong.
Where needed I am going back to 2004 to get a big enough database to cover distance around 2 miles.

TBB

Not according to Adrian Massey’s figures:
http://www.adrianmassey.com/draw/soutaw5.php
Though, as Robert points out, it’s pertinent to establish where the horses ran, and to note that the bias varies depending on the surface.
Recent results (on a slow surface, owing to deep harrowing) have favoured high drawn horses, whereas a faster surface (e.g. during persistent rain) often favours horses drawn on the far side. Even then, you need to know where the stalls are, particularly in smaller fields.

[mr forecast]

Draw biases offer an all-weather angle…

We’ve got just about ten weeks of the all-weather season proper
stretched out ahead of us. In the past I would have been totally
disinterested. However, the weather over the last couple of weeks –
and a complete dearth of jump racing – has led me to engage with the
format. And I’ve got to admit that, having dug about and found a
couple of angles, I’m beginning to enjoy it.

Speed figures, collateral form and the differences that exist
between each of the English tracks all offer plenty of potential
angles to the all-weather punter. So too do draw biases. And that’s
where my focus is this week.

I’ll come to races over 7 furlongs and a mile at each course next
week. This week I’m concentrating on races over 5 furlongs and 6
furlongs at each of the 4 all-weather courses – Lingfield,
Southwell, Kempton and Wolverhampton.

In making my statistical analysis I have focused on races over those
distances throughout 2009 and into 2010 so far. In order to keep the
focus on what is happening NOW I didn’t want to go any further back
into historical data. Biases change over time and what was or wasn’t
happening 2 or 3 years ago will not prove relevant or instructional
to bets we want to place today, tomorrow or next week. I also
decided to focus solely on races with 9 runners or more.

Lingfield – avoid stall 1 and play the percentages…

Races over 5 furlongs take place around 2 left-handed bends with a
maximum of 10 runners. When looking at these races I would
completely discount whatever is running out of stall 1. 28 runners
have run out of the stall over 5 furlongs in the last year and none
of them have managed to win. Of the 28 winners of 5 furlong races
over the period 17 (61%) have come out of stalls 2, 3, 4 or 5 – and
horses set to run from those stalls should be looked at closely.

In a race round 2 tight bends you might think the horse drawn widest
would be at a distinct disadvantage – but the facts don’t fir the
theory. Stall 10 has produced 5 winners over the period and knowing
that might give you an edge over the wider market which I believe
will generally take the view that the widest horse can’t win.

Races over 6 furlongs are run around 3 bends with a maximum of 12
runners and once again runners from stall 1 are really up against
it. 57 have tried over the last year and just one has been
successful. Short price runners from stall 1 over 5 or 6 furlongs at
Lingfield are clearly decent candidates for laying purposes.

Over 6 furlongs winners come from pretty much all parts of the draw
but the percentage call is to focus special attention on runners
from stalls 9, 10, 11 or 12 which have produced 22 out of the 58
(38%) winners over the sample period.

Southwell – go low in the sprints…

5 furlong races are run on the straight at Southwell and have up to
14 runners. The percentage play is to focus your attention on
runners from stalls 1,2,3,4, 5 and 6. These stalls have produced 34
(76%) of the 45 winners over 5 furlongs at Southwell over the test
period. Backing runners in stalls 10 or bigger is not advisable –
over the period 107 runners have run out of those stalls and just 7
have triumphed.

6 furlong races take place around 2 bends. 40 (71%) of the 56
winners over the period have run out of stalls 3 to 9 inclusive.
That’s the percentage play. Runners from stalls 10 or bigger have
scored just 9 times from 151 runners. Avoiding these high-stall
runners will mean you miss a few winners but swerve a damn sight
more losers.

Kempton – high numbers are best

At right-handed Kempton the 5 furlong sprinters run around 2 bends –
with a maximum of 12 runners per race. Only 28 5 furlong races have
been run over the last year – and 50% of those have been won by
horses racing out of stall 9 or higher.

Over 6 furlongs races are run around 2 bends – again with a maximum
of 12 runners per race. Of the 84 winners of 6 furlong races over
the text period 48 (57%) have done the winning out of stall 8 or
higher. Runners from stall 1 have the worst record – just 3 wins out
of 67 – and are best avoided.

Wolverhampton – another course where it pays to go low…

5 furlong races are run around 2 tight left-handed bends. The course
configuration appears to suit those drawn low over 5 furlongs. Of 57
winners over the test period 28 (49%) were drawn in stalls 1, 2 or
3. Just 10 winners over the minimum distance were drawn in stall 8
or higher.

6 furlong races take place on the straight. Over the test period
there have been 91 qualifying races and 59 (65%) of the winners were
drawn in the first 7 stalls.

Using these stats…

You can use these stats to split the field of any race over 5
furlongs or 6 furlongs into probables and the less likely.

Exchange layers might look to oppose short-priced fancies running
out of the wrong part of the draw.

Keen race watchers might look for horses that run well from a bad
part of the draw – and back them next time out (assuming they get a
good draw next time) on the basis that they could be winners waiting
to happen.

Forecast, Tricast and Placepot players might want to make multiple
selections from the best parts of the draw.

Punters who like to dutch 2 or 3 runners in order to try and squeeze
a profit from every race might also want to focus their efforts
solely on those runners with the draw on their side.

Just a few ideas. Next week I’ll be back with some stats for races
over 7 and 8 furlongs.

[Author]

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