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I’ll kick things off for this Saturday with a selection in an open looking race. The one that has to be mentioned first is the Aiden O’Brien inmate Clear Skies, currently trading at a best priced 100/30. I’m intrigued to see how this one is priced up on the day as this price looks a bit skinny for one stepping up considerably enough in class.
He has been prolific recently at Dundalk but he hasn’t had to beat much in terms of quality so I’m happy to pass him on.I can’t get away from the 7/1 on offer for John Gosden’s Utmost who is a progressive, lightly raced one that dictated terms last time before quickening in the manner of a smart horse. He’s drawn to attack again but I’d be happy for him to stalk the pace if others go off quickly in front.
There are plenty of others in with a chance and I’m sure there will be a few differences of opinion but I’ll take a chance on Utmost to land John Gosden his first Winter Derby. If he’s a confirmed runner of course.
good stuff Chivers. I am not the biggest AW fan, but just looking at the race. even though Clear Skies is on an upward curve I cannot have a horse rated 73 only a couple of months ago on my mind at the prices.
I see stick with last years winner who is 2/2 at track (3/3 on aw surfaces), before being outclassed in a Sha Tin Group one. He would be my play at around 6s EW
Just noted Clive Cox has picked up Khalidi from John Gosden
Good luck players
Yea he definitely enters my calculations but I think he had an injury after that grade 1 so after 293 days off the track I am sceptical on his well-being. He won first time up when landing this last year but different circumstances this time around have led me to cross him off.
Khalidi on his first start for Clive Cox my pick here. Some nice form from last year and think he’ll be staying on strong when others are flattening out a bit.
I remember Clear Skies on her first start. She ran 4th behind Shogun from the O’Brien yard, who had been an expensive flop on his debut. Clear Skies stayed on promisingly that day and she was an expensive Sea The Stars foal.
Sadly it turned out to be one of the worst maidens in the history of The Curragh and Shogun never won again despite being highly regarded.
Clear Skies also ran second to Alice Springs, albeit well beaten, but was generally a big disappointment for a filly costing half a million. This looks tougher than the handicaps she’s been mopping up and at 5/2 and 9/4 across the boards there is no value there in my opinion.
Utmost won well in his sole start at 2YO and the plan was to give him his Guineas prep in the Burradon at Newcastle. I backed him for that race and he was well backed but he was a bit disappointing in third with outsider Forest Ranger winning it.
Gosden came out and declared that the horse had had a bad time of it over the Winter and would not run again for a long time, something that made me worry about the quality of the Newcastle race if Utmost could finish third in those circumstances. It turned out it never panned out well.
On his eventual comeback I took a chance on Utmost at early big odds and was buoyed by the decent market support. He ran OK but I was a bit disappointed he couldn’t win that one. I decided to leave him to see how he progressed and obviously missed him when he got his head in front again.
I am a bit worried it’s taken the amount of time it has for Utmost to get a win under his belt and the form doesn’t quite look strong enough as a whole.
Khalidi is interesting, the Cox yard has been quiet in general lately but this horse brings a better looking profile than Utmost to the table. He is also rated 9 lbs higher. Hardly a disgrace being down the field in the Derby, his second to the ill-fated Permian in the Group 2 King Edward VII at Royal Ascot looks the best piece of form here. Mind you, his Fielden Stakes win earlier has stunk the place out big time since.
Autocratic needed his first start last year and didn’t follow up his Brigadier Gerard win afterwards. Convey won this last season first time out so I prefer him from Stoute’s yard.
With more possibly to come from Khalidi I see him as the best value at 6/1, given the company he has kept. Convey looks the alternative/Forecast selection. Clear Skies just seems too short for me.
Khalidi 6/1
Khalidi/Convey rev/forecast
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Absolutely love to see CONVEY win this one of my favourite horses and trys his heart out every race.
I’m with ‘N’ and Steve on this one..good luck.
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...I am on Utmost at 7/1 and Khalidi at 6/1 and the forecast reversed!
Clear Skies is a shocking price for what it has done and is priced on trainer not on performance!!
Well, we were right to avoid Clear Skies. Terrible price.
Did Rab Havlin kick too soon on Utmost or the horse just not good enough?
Placings surely have to be reversed on the front two
I think they possibly went a bit too quick – the first three home were all held up near the back – and Utmost has paid for it.
Bit of a boil over there. I didn’t fancy any of the 1-2-3
Quite why Clear Skies was 2/1 was a mystery. The Racing Post preview on ATR said she should take it in her stride coming from handicap company, which seemed a bit fanciful to me.
I was a shade disappointed that Khalidi didn’t pick up better but it was his first try on the all-weather and I may give him another shot back on turf.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Regarding Utmost. I feel he may always be vulnerable to a finisher. I get the feeling he doesn’t actually possess much of a turn of speed himself and may be best trying to pull the kick out of the potential finishers.
I felt he ended up a tad short today but Gosden is king after Enable and Cracksman last season.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Jac
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